ACUS11 KWNS 112318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112318=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 112318Z - 120115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
intensify and organize while advancing east of the lower Mississippi
Valley through 7-10 CDT, preceded by at least a couple of developing supercells. It appears that this may be accompanied by increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been slowly intensifying
along eastward advancing conglomerate convective outflow across
central Louisiana, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric short wave perturbation progressing toward
the lower Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
ahead of the perturbation is on the order of 40+ kt, with shear
strong. Although lapse rates do not appear particularly steep,
forecast soundings suggest that mixed-layer CAPE is now generally on
the order of 1000-1500 J/kg across the region. Inflow of this air
may support continuing upscale convective growth, as more discrete
storms also develop and intensify downstream across parts of
southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi.

Latest Rapid Refresh indicates that a 30-35+ kt southwesterly 850 mb
jet nosing inland across south central Louisiana will continue
propagating east-northeastward through this evening, contributing to
enlarging low-level hodographs which could supporting increasing
potential for tornadoes, in addition to damaging wind gust.

..Kerr/Smith.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-NGMv2Yai3GT70mHibCvQSilhTJSlFt4dJcpjldS6HUvIqkrq18LTYVUQuKOaXciGCazYLseC= A7mkKZVdYR95PC_vGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30869254 31919097 33008948 33758718 32068706 30288955
29219111 29669254 30869254=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)