ACUS11 KWNS 112247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112247=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112247Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist
into the early evening hours across the northern Mid Atlantic
states, with damaging winds and perhaps hail being the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms on the eastern edge of
WW 45 will pose a threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
into the early evening hours. There is still a small window of
tornado potential through at least 8 PM EDT, though forecast
profiles ahead of the ongoing storms show a rapid stabilization of
the nocturnal boundary layer. Even with this stabilization, there is
sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer vertical shear to support a
continued severe threat as storms make the transition from
surface-based to elevated. Some potential for hail exists, though is
expected to largely remain at or below 1.0 inches in diameter.

..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-fO6lYv5xUz60y3seiNMqaOWzqD3mKUm1Z8AoSOp5lT3vGJuORmaRIIyA4zHM4SEA1sQ9vUUJ= WhSmnAKr8GXy9YeaWk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39047785 39457751 39687732 40067743 40597662 40677582
40507468 40237392 39427427 38607497 38857773 39047785=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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