ACUS11 KWNS 112035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112034=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...northeastern
West Virginia...and northern Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

Valid 112034Z - 112200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado
across Tornado Watch 45. Tornado Watch 45 has been extended eastward
to cover the continuing severe risk, but a downstream watch appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Several low-topped supercells ongoing across portions
of eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania have produced sporadic
damaging wind gusts and large hail over the past 1-2 hours and have occasionally shown signs of stronger low-level rotation. While
buoyancy remains rather limited along this corridor (250-500 J/kg
MLCAPE per latest RAP-based mesoanalysis) owing to weak mid-level
lapse rates, strong low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to
support an isolated severe risk for the next 1-2 hours. In the short
term, a localized zone of marginally increased severe potential may
exist across portions of south-central Pennsylvania, including the
Juniata River Valley, where latest mesoanalysis suggests available
buoyancy may be a bit higher (locally up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Owing
to recent observations, Tornado Watch 45 has been locally extended
eastward to cover the continuing severe risk. However, a downstream
watch appears unlikely at this time owing to increasing convective
inhibition and more well-mixed boundary layer profiles with eastward
extent.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9evnJV52vMHb7Fa7MpNoF1BJBMWqN4sx0t_btrN2dDAAqAo_aFpdc4KKl57hJ51EEWQHQdrY1= YVsI2dgZt5gGEgTnl0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39538020 39788044 40088035 40377992 40517930 40587857
40667763 40667703 40607654 40497628 40357614 40197616
39967619 39607649 39447688 39287737 39237804 39227861
39307917 39407968 39538020=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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