ACUS11 KWNS 111836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111836=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the lower and middle Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 111836Z - 112000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across portions of northern
Kentucky and southern Indiana into southwestern Ohio over the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm redevelopment is ongoing across portions
of the middle Ohio River Valley as filtered diurnal heating has
coupled with dewpoints near 60 F to yield weak to modest buoyancy in
the wake of morning convection. While poor lapse rates aloft are
limiting instability to 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, strong effective bulk
shear of 50+ kts continues to support at least some organization of
developing convection, including a broken band of thunderstorms
across southeastern Illinois and southern Indiana. It remains
uncertain how long this band may persist as increasing high cloud
cover is likely to limit any further destabilization. However,
latest guidance continues to suggest that at least a few line
segments and/or discrete cells will persist eastward across WW0043.
Despite limited buoyancy, strong 850 mb flow (50+ kt at 1 km AGL per
the VWX/LWX VWP) continues to support strong speed shear and
elongated hodographs in the low levels. Thus, at least some
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two appears possible over the next 1-2 hours.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qI-c_dTwB_EnPwnTDciSbt60iDJfNi6tkVASxDGCP-U_RB8ytouQ_EAK4f-xAuvl6ww0USWU= lqNSLVHvK0K-iIPHug$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 38128759 38278803 38488816 38728778 38958714 39138664
39308569 39378491 39418379 39328338 39068322 38818328
38538361 38268461 38008565 37998623 38058679 38128759=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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