ACUS11 KWNS 111516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111515=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...southeast TX to middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 111515Z - 111745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected into this
afternoon. Multiple tornado watches will likely be needed towards
midday/early afternoon from the northwest Gulf Coast to the
Tennessee Valley.

DISCUSSION...An extensive swath of broken convection is ongoing from
parts of southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss/Mid-South vicinity. Cloud
breaks ahead of this activity are aiding in gradual airmass
destabilization from MS southwestward, where moderate MLCAPE from
1000-2000 J/kg should become pervasive over the next few hours.=20

Most prominent severe threat is anticipated to emanate out of the
southeast TX vicinity, where a combination of steeper mid-level
lapse rates/greater boundary-layer heating, coupled with
stronger/slightly more backed low-level flow should aid in
strengthening of a QLCS this afternoon. Embedded supercell
structures are expected, yielding a threat for a few tornadoes, with
a strong one possible.=20

Farther northeast, weaker instability and more line-parallel
deep-layer flow may support less coverage/amplitude of severe
initially. But pre-outflow confluence bands across central to
northeast MS may aid in supercell formation deeper into the
afternoon over the TN Valley as the large-scale outflow approaches.

..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8X-TtLrcuF4h2XBV0kSBybPlg7NUbyIGr7kITxA86Y2spWsQkUsSqn0DxFgw4QQHwitYsMRQM= a_tigOJ3n5QcJ_MZNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
HGX...

LAT...LON 29979640 30859607 31759395 33589136 35138990 35828889
36338752 36228691 35858674 34248794 32678951 31199210
29819358 28999654 29979640=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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