193
AXNT20 KNHC 110958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong
trades across the central basin through tonight, becoming confined
to the S-central Caribbean thereafter through Sat. Winds to gale-
force off Colombia will diminish later this morning. Seas of 8 to
12 ft are expected with these winds through the morning. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0000 UTC at least.
Very rough seas to around 12 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm either side
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 16W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida
into the Gulf region. A 1023 mb high pressure is located over the
NE Gulf near 29N85W, while 1005 mb low pressure is located over NE
Mexico near 26N100W with troughing extending SSE. This pattern is
supporting fresh to locally strong winds in the NW Gulf, light to
gentle SE winds in the NE Gulf, and moderate to fresh E-SE winds
elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf, 2 ft or less in the NE
Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Some areas of dense fog are noted in
the N-central and NE Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the
basin will prevail through today. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the early
morning and evening, with slightly weaker winds overall in the
northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate today. A cold
front will impact the NW Gulf beginning tonight, before moving
across the basin through Thu night, stalling and dissipating over
the SE Gulf Fri and Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds
will increase to fresh to near gale-force speeds, and seas will
build to 8 to 11 ft through Thu night, with conditions improving
thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin. Another
cold front may approach early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Otherwise, fresh to strong NE-E winds are in the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with mainly moderate to
fresh NE-E trades across the remainder of the basin with high
pressure located to the N and low pressure near the coast of
northern Colombia. Seas are 8-12 ft in the S-central Caribbean,
5-7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 82W except locally higher near
Atlantic Passages, and 3-5 ft across the remainder of the basin
including the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
central basin through tonight, becoming confined to the S-central
Caribbean thereafter through Sat. Winds to gale-force off
Colombia will diminish later this morning. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage, S of
Hispaniola, and the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba
through Wed night. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the
tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser
Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve
slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW
Caribbean. High pressure will build across the Atlantic by the end
of the weekend with fresh to strong trades and building seas
extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the Meteo-France forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya.

A 1027 mb high is centered E of Bermuda near 33N56W with a ridge
extending WSW to the N coast of Florida. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail under this ridge generally N of 25N and
W of 60W, where seas are 4-6 ft. To the E, a 1034 mb high is
located near the Azores while a persistent surface trough is to
the SW from 31N46.5W to 20N46W. Troughing is also analyzed over NW
Africa. This pressure pattern is leading to fresh to strong winds
N of 20N and E of 20W, as well as N of 25N between 20W and 35W.
Seas are 8-11 ft N of 20N and E of 40W, and 6-8 ft S of 20N and E
of 35W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the
basin including S of 25N and W of 35W to the Caribbean Islands,
locally strong near the Windward Passage. Seas of 5-8 ft dominate
this area, highest E of the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail S of 25N through this evening, locally strong N of
Hispaniola into the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds can
be expected elsewhere across the region today. Southerly fresh to
strong winds will develop off northern Florida tonight ahead of a
cold front. That front will move offshore by Thu evening with
fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas behind it,
weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by
Fri. High pressure ridging will prevail across the basin for the
end of the week into the weekend along with moderate to fresh
trades, then will strengthen by the end of the weekend, leading to
fresh to locally strong winds basin-wide, and rough seas over the SE waters.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)