ACUS11 KWNS 110721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110720=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-110845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Southwest MO into western AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 110720Z - 110845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado will
spread eastward overnight.

DISCUSSION...The most vigorous part of a loosely organized QLCS is
moving across parts of northwest AR early this morning, with recent
observed gusts of 35-45 kt and occasional embedded rotation noted
within the line. Farther south, small discrete cells across
west-central AR continue to show occasional rotation as well.
Low-level flow remains quite strong across the region per recent
VWPs, supporting large effective SRH (near/above 250 m2/s2) despite
relatively unidirectional wind profiles. Given the strong flow and
MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, the environment
remains conditionally favorable for all severe hazards. However,
with generally subtle large-scale ascent and some residual low-level
stability and capping, the longevity of the severe threat with the
ongoing convection remains uncertain.=20

The northern extent of the severe threat across south-central MO
will eventually be constrained by southeastward-moving outflow, but
the environment will remain conditionally favorable for areas south
and east of this outflow, and across AR in advance of the ongoing
convection. If organized storm structures can be maintained, then
some threat for damaging wind and a tornado will spread
east-northeastward overnight, and local expansions of WW 40 may be
needed depending on convective trends.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kW_wqnVOvHVB7J1cvG54x6-AcUbpoMG_WPoKduXzv0Y-JA3zKEHICdcmTRJZyJ7MJb-afSFp= euCn0ctbJYWrULdqtE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34379383 35679377 36549334 37559267 37629242 37689175
37329170 36779176 35979181 35029197 34399211 33949250
33919386 34379383=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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