ACUS11 KWNS 110615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110614=20
MOZ000-110745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 110614Z - 110745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado remain
possible early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Within a broader QLCS, a convective line segment has
recently taken on a more north-south orientation and accelerated
eastward across central MO. This orientation is more favorable for damaging-wind and embedded tornado potential, within an environment
of very strong low-level southwesterly flow (50-60 kt on regional
VWPs) and moderate buoyancy. However, the 04Z SGF sounding depicted
rather substantial MLCINH, resulting in uncertainty regarding the
longevity of organized storm structures and the magnitude of the
severe threat early this morning.=20

If this line segment remains organized, some threat for damaging
wind and perhaps a tornado may eventually spread into parts of
east-central MO, out of the remaining portion of WW 40. The need for
new watch issuance is very uncertain, but trends will continue to be
monitored for an uptick in storm organization overnight.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BvSM-mHlgkAYi4LGjMKHVp6xrSdUxwJXAJGsZFhaW_K8KrWQvS9RHW-tgYWXVOtbJnmuEWWC= 4OyPkcQYOyrwGBrZPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38059316 38819266 39289236 39419191 39359091 38559106
37829150 37799245 37759329 38059316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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