ACUS11 KWNS 031639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031639=20
ORZ000-CAZ000-031845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Areas affected...northern California and southern Oregon coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031639Z - 031845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase along the coast
through late morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection offshore across portions of northern
California has shown some uptick in lightning activity over the last
hour. In addition, transient weak rotation has been observed on
radar. While thermodynamic profiles are generally poor (around 250
J/kg or less of MLCAPE), shear is increasing with the increasing
upper-level flow with the trough moving closer inland. The VAD
profile from BHX (Eureka, CA) shows 0-1 km SRH around 420 m2/s2,
with favorable low-level curvature. Some risk for waterspouts and/or
a tornado will be possible near the immediate coastline across
northern California into far southern Oregon over the next couple of
hours. In addition, some risk for strong to severe winds will be
possible. This threat should remain limited owing to the poor
instability and as such, a watch is not anticipated at this time.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5U3yKw9oml77mA6eIdsPndfVLqYTG0QGMXIvnkzmHVZhKDQtyOsHZd-9UepzZgZNzoRJ7IMLB= jeOmAw29MXMBWuNmTQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...

LAT...LON 39342389 39912360 40192368 42822401 43852408 43582489
43282561 42312600 41472561 40182492 39922480 39562455
39422445 39332429 39312409 39332394 39342389=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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