ACUS11 KWNS 250746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250746=20
CAZ000-251015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the North Coast of California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250746Z - 251015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging convective gusts and possibly a
brief tornado is increasing, with the greatest threat expected
between 09-12Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 0730Z, radar data from KMUX shows an expansive,
strongly forced band of stratiform rain with gradually
deepening/intensifying convective elements. As a robust
negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying jet continue toward
the coast, this activity will spread east-northeastward into the
North Coast of California during the 09-12Z time frame. Despite
limited buoyancy, the strong forcing for ascent and strengthening
deep-layer flow/shear should favor a modest uptick in convective organization/intensity as it approaches the coast. Given the
strongly forced nature and 50+ kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL, the
primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. However, a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out, aided by upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH and at least neutral boundary-layer static stability along the
immediate coastal areas.

..Weinman/Smith.. 12/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tjgE6HrSofcYt_vEpX9dA-5izEznpjXmh05FiNx0ZW_vgzlvYghTZQktEjSEx5y_kzBpJM4m= TmMxCkh21UUIldgJRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...EKA...

LAT...LON 36862224 37742283 38562351 39312403 39912430 40352457
40682447 40782431 40702392 40392355 40002312 39372247
38552192 37162146 36682149 36502170 36432200 36862224=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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