ACUS48 KWNS 191002
SWOD48
SPC AC 191000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will
feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances
across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the
Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain
generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the
potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each
day.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200838
SWOD48
SPC AC 200836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent
upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the
West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit
deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a
relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and
Midwest.

With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing
moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some
strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across
coastal portions of central and southern California during the last
half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the
degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details
remain uncertain.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210921
SWOD48
SPC AC 210920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an
upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights
across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period.
The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated
to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over
portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for
a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this
convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude
severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward
into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will
likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part
of extended period.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220927
SWOD48
SPC AC 220925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will
quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early
this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime
potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for
organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period.
Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying
Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability
is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in
time.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230943
SWOD48
SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to
move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During
this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest,
and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An
associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization
with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the
models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal.
This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move
across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front
moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and
cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most
of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240943
SWOD48
SPC AC 240942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi
Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs
southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will
advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a
cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm
development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday
afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio
Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms
should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak
instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the
southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing
over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in
place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low
across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250948
SWOD48
SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central
U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the
Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe
threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a
tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to
gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S.,
eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a
cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the
continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in
most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260855
SWOD48
SPC AC 260853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to
mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the
Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone
should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into
the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time
frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing
portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale
ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.

The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the
frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week.
Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification
along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude
shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a
return to non-negligible severe potential.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270844
SWOD48
SPC AC 270842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3
continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow
and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend.
Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some
models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact
with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe
potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this
scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside
of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe
probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML
guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280840
SWOD48
SPC AC 280838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290912
SWOD48
SPC AC 290911

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.

Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300848
SWOD48
SPC AC 300847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday
across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep
South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the
Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it
becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across
eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards
dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as
they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday
night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly
low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat.
After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the
D6-8 time frame.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 310953
SWOD48
SPC AC 310951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast
States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A
lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to
dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast
Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain
veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread
east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust
convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at
least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by
latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5
percent probability areas.

Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest
guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this
weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast.
This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday,
shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of
individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets
relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial
for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.

Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains
evident early next week.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010935
SWOD48
SPC AC 010933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an
increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability
has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West
Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja
CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the
Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While
predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it
may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the
western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs
highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too
far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2
percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020940
SWOD48
SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley
mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the
broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least
low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude
shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the
week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of
this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to
interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf
into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates
severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus
suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West
late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level
southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.
Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the
lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion
of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs
on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030932
SWOD48
SPC AC 030931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large
with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will
initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday.
Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late
D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower
and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday.
This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from
the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the
South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even
among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS
ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.

For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the
ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to
prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the
ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable
pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough.
But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping
seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western
Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central
states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on
D7/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040932
SWOD48
SPC AC 040931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should
evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a
large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and
AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower
ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains
through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible
to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a
modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for
Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance
have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.

D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential,
despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in
areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any
appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas
from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to
shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS
members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability
remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of
cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave
impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for
a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS
to TN Valleys and Deep South.

..Grams.. 01/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050951
SWOD48
SPC AC 050949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The noticeable model differences on D3/Wednesday in the evolution of
a low-latitude shortwave impulse, ejecting ahead of an amplifying
upper trough over the West, persist into D4/Thursday. This renders
low confidence in a greater than low-probability severe risk on
Thursday, which appears roughly centered on the Ark-La-Tex to
Mid-South.

Peak severe potential still appears centered on D5/Friday.
Predictability remains sub-optimal with the basal portion of the
amplified upper trough from the Southwest. This renders large spread
across guidance in timing and amplitude of downstream cyclogenesis
from the south-central Great Plains towards the Great Lakes,
impacting the breadth of severe potential. However, with preceding
days of airmass modification from the western Gulf, a pronounced
wintertime warm-moist sector should become established towards the
Lower OH Valley vicinity. This should be coincident with a broad
swath of strong southwesterly mid-level flow that should be
strengthening during the period.

The trio of latest NCAR ECENS-based and SPC-CSU GEFS-based ML
probabilities have trended upward again with similarly large 15
percent regions. Meanwhile, the NSSL GEFS-based V1.2 has increased
back to a 10 percent, but displaced farther south. For this
forecast, have opted to include a 15 percent highlight, centered on
the Lower MS to Lower OH Valleys where confidence is greater for a
favorable convective environment on Friday afternoon to night
despite the modest synoptic-scale predictability.

ML probs for D6/Saturday remain low, with only the NCAR_Pangu
highlighting a 5 percent area. But given the aforementioned timing
differences with the evolution of the upper trough/surface
cyclogenesis, very fast deep-layer wind fields could persist atop a
more limited thermodynamic environment. A conditional convective
damaging wind threat seems apparent, with low confidence on spatial extent/amplitude at this time range.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

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