ACUS11 KWNS 161906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161905=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and western
Wisconsin.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161905Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this
afternoon/evening. No watch is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast
Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the wake of the morning MCS.
These elevated storms are in a region with strong shear (50+ knots
per ARX VWP), but are somewhat removed from the better elevated
instability according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, the current
location and storm motion favoring movement farther into the cold
air would suggest severe potential may be somewhat limited from this
activity. If additional storms can develop farther south (across
northeast Iowa), they may pose a greater severe potential, but
visible satellite trends do not support an imminent threat of
additional development in this area.

..Bentley.. 08/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6dN-r4J5MyKvkQxQzzhEYf0TBjjsdACGBo8W9APAp3CVkrRnYRhggrY8P7XUDkzUNUPkeynff= nkKyKhNF51cXAyU_ok$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 44409206 44419092 44719027 44718994 44388950 43798922
43368939 43099022 42889121 42889230 43059311 43529328
44409206=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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