ACUS11 KWNS 152050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152049=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds and large hail will be possible with
storms that can move off the terrain into the High Plains. A watch
is not expected in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is evident on visible/water vapor
imagery this afternoon from the eastern Great Basin into the central
High Plains. Modest moisture (upper 40s/low 50s F) in eastern
Wyoming has allowed convection and widely scattered thunderstorms to
develop. Inhibition immediately to the east of this activity is
slowly weakening. Some this activity will likely move off the
terrain. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail would be
possible. The observed 18Z UNR/LBF soundings do show stronger
inhibition into the Plains. While there is a signal in guidance for
convection to cluster and eventually intensify, this is not likely
to occur until early evening when MLCIN erodes farther east. At that
point, the low-level jet will focus in the region and mid-level
ascent will be marginally stronger. That said, a watch is not
anticipated in the short term.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 08/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Hq9i_oUeUHvFNACGicgUaqZSi3vEGw0UBGQpnvPpGv8N_iuc3EyldDAK-4af4BnAhxigCCt5= ksraDZV_IhNDS4OMe4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40930472 42240527 43610539 44230503 44200432 42610305
41490258 40550269 40080307 39970351 40090422 40930472=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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