ACUS11 KWNS 140033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140033=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-140230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...South-central South Dakota and north-central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588...

Valid 140033Z - 140230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds are expected to persist across
south-central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska for the next
few hours. A supercellular hail threat may materialize ahead of the
line, but confidence remains limited.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS across SD has become outflow dominant
over the past 1-2 hours but continues to produce wind gusts between
55-65 mph per recent reports. Additionally, new updrafts are noted
on northern portions of the squall line outflow, suggesting that the
MCS is beginning to realize the higher MLCAPE environment
downstream. In addition to moving into a more buoyant air mass, a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet over the next few hours will
aid in low-level ascent along the outflow and help maintain MCS
intensity - especially on the southern end of the line along and
south of the NE/SD border. Because of this, the expectation is that
a severe wind threat (most likely between 55-70 mph) should continue downstream.=20

Ahead of the MCS, GOES imagery and lightning data continue to show
attempts at sustained deep convection along a low-level confluence
zone/surface trough. It remains unclear if a sustained storm can
emerge from this activity before the arrival of the line, but the
environment is conditionally favorable for supercells with an
attendant threat for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado given
around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH as sampled by the 00z ABR sounding.

..Moore.. 08/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dztC9LNICohWesVVcMFsa_ZHaRXoTrK3qqhR0Yyzx5ENkCiN1117ZL2JuBDNXg-zvQhtAYqV= V20rsOLjTPE7w9WC-Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 41850069 42410301 42590315 42810296 42980278 43430256
43910229 44510213 44790205 44920179 44639898 44519872
44049859 43339869 42139950 41869997 41810034 41850069=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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