ACUS11 KWNS 122151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122151=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122151Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing across eastern Wisconsin
into the Upper Peninsula of lower Michigan may intensify through
early evening and pose risk for large hail and/or damaging winds.
However, this threat should remain too limited for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to percolate along a diffuse
frontal zone from the U.P. of lower Michigan into central WI. At
least one maturing cell across the U.P. appears to be developing a
mid-level mesocyclone, which is indicative of strong shear
(estimated to be around 30-35 knots of effective BWD) over the
region and adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Developing cells
to the southwest along the front are also showing some signs of
deeper development/intensification, though this has been a slow
process over the past hour. The sluggish growth during peak heating
is likely due to somewhat weak low-level ascent along the front, as
suggested by only a modest surface wind shift and a diffuse
cross-frontal temperature gradient across WI. With the onset of
nocturnal cooling coming in a few hours and with the
front/convection moving towards the Lake Michigan shore, the spatial
and temporal window for an appreciable severe threat may be limited. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment across the
region will remain favorable for organized storms, including a
supercell or two, for the next few hours with an attendant threat
for severe hail and damaging winds.

..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6q0e4HjyaPxedBaX4g1Oyo7bKSR5oEYx0sAvls2mcR3yXapt1Wj2NKgg7lHPR4VPPtzZW-s5z= 0Fkq2V_u2IIUWOTHF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43318785 43218814 43218856 43278906 43388945 43778968
44098973 44348966 44658913 45058867 45748795 46348710
46498668 46628627 46678585 46748535 46748507 46678481
46558461 46348448 46138444 45818473 45778497 45858517
45898550 45848599 45758622 45568650 45248677 44948706
44718720 44378738 43938752 43688759 43318785=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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