ACUS11 KWNS 100036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100035=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Kansas to southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...

Valid 100035Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across northeast
Colorado and far southwest Nebraska are expected to spread east
through late evening. Additionally, new thunderstorm development is
anticipated across north-central KS between 2-4 UTC and will likely
pose a severe hail/wind threat. Downstream watch issuance is likely
to address these concerns.

DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth continues across far northeast
CO and southwest NE as a mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded
supercells continues to migrate east. Recent GOES IR imagery
continues to show new/intense updraft development across this region
as convection begins to move into richer low-level moisture and
better MLCAPE. Moderate deep-layer shear remains over the region and
will continue to promote storm intensification and organization -
most likely into a mix of convective bands with embedded supercells
- as storms spread east downstream into southern NE and northern KS
through late evening.=20

Further east across north-central KS, surface observations and
recent upper-air analyses depict an effective warm frontal zone
draped across the region. Shallow cumulus is noted in visible
imagery along/north of this boundary, but appreciable deepening has
not yet been observed - likely owing to residual capping sampled in
the recent 00z TOP sounding. However, this RAOB also sampled extreme
buoyancy (~4000 J/kg MLCAPE) that will likely be realized as the
nocturnal jet strengthens between 2-4 UTC and bolsters isentropic
ascent over the frontal zone. Zonal deep-layer flow along the
boundary will likely promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and
clusters with some an attendant threat for large hail and severe
gusts.=20

Downstream watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address
both of these scenarios.

..Moore.. 08/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7LjZE1FHVoyO9aGNzk14qGunP8UydkXsyLZ_G3MXhf-fQbXrWeARtrzL1u70PL1fwikKt8Blo= m-xq_fKUGtHI-zlHRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41239660 41159636 40899624 38969624 38769628 38629652
38609693 38610076 38620118 38730134 39000131 40820121
41120105 41230081 41250050 41239660=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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