ACUS11 KWNS 092230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092230=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of
Nebraska and Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...

Valid 092230Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581
continues.

SUMMARY...Upscale growth is anticipated in the next 2-3 hours across
far northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas
as storm interactions increase. This will be accompanied by an
increase in severe wind potential.

DISCUSSION...A mixture of left and right-split supercells continues
across northeast CO with several reports of 1-2 inch hail and 50-60
mph gusts noted over the past couple of hours. This convective
evolution is indicative of a kinematic environment characterized by
elongated, nearly-straight hodographs. With no appreciable change in
the flow fields anticipated in the next several hours, this mix of
splitting cells should continue for the near-term. One consequence
of the mixed storm motions will be a tendency for increased storm
interactions in the coming hours that should result in upscale
growth and consolidation of cold pools as convection migrates east
into higher buoyancy. Additionally, a subtle low-level confluence
band noted in surface observations and KGLD reflectivity data may
act as a foci for storm development/propagation. As such, the
expectation is for gradual upscale growth over the next 2-3 hours
across far northeast CO into northwest KS and southwest NE (though
some uncertainty remains regarding the most likely corridor of
downstream propagation). The potential for strong to severe winds
should increase as this occurs.=20

Further south, a more isolated right-moving supercell near Limon, CO
will likely maintain separation from the upscale growth to the
north. Likewise, stronger capping and weaker forcing for ascent
downstream should tend to limit additional development and help
maintain storm isolated. Consequently, this cell will likely
continue to pose a significant hail threat for the next couple of
hours.

..Moore.. 08/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bFJJwMu-GKw-4jeJoslO1ATr7aewBZ6MhuqxK4Cb0m35dK9zDIuyGbUsJYdofkr5pjIaVZnn= HLqE9BByNx56mid8AY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39410406 39630384 40560296 40790282 40990247 41040212
41050153 40930111 40790087 40470075 40090075 39790098
39470128 39260169 39090218 38820305 38750349 38780381
38970398 39150408 39410406=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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