ACUS11 KWNS 090346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090345=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-090545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090345Z - 090545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
from northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. A few storms may
be locally severe with a risk for hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Rockies/Plains upper
trough is expected to aid convection within a post-frontal regime
into the early-morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb
flow will increase across northern CO into southern NE. While
surface-based parcels are likely capped across this region, frontal
lift and cooling 700mb temperatures appear favorable for elevated
convection. Latest radar data supports this with a gradual increase
in storms across northwest KS. This activity may continue to
increase as it spreads/develops northeast over the next several
hours. Hail and wind are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MEUYELpI-VPdTRUCiBGnsIPeeMARmDt9NP4LOutomaJBlK7TAA3d82fAlzFpU_EPeZ1qkJ7X= SDuaAIMl5ow507ud0o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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