ACUS11 KWNS 080039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080039=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-080245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Areas affected...Western and northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 080039Z - 080245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a
severe threat through the late evening hours across northern North
Dakota. Additionally, a developing MCS will propagate along a warm
front into central ND through the overnight hours. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, elevated convection has been
percolating across northwest ND and eastward along the international
border within a low-level warm advection regime. Within the past
30-60 minutes, MRMS and GOES IR imagery have shown an uptick in
convective intensity, and surface observations show the development
of a deepening cold pool. While recent CAM solutions hint that this
activity will diminish in the coming hours, these observations
suggest otherwise and fall in line with WoFS guidance that depict an
increasing severe wind and hail risk across northern ND through
early evening.=20

Further upstream in MT, an MCS is beginning to mature along the I-94
corridor. This system is expected to intensify as it moves into far
eastern MT/western ND where MLCAPE is considerably higher. This line
is expected to propagate to the east/northeast along a surface warm
front noted in recent surface observations, and should continue
across ND through the overnight hours.

Recent WoFS solutions hint at the potential for 2-3 inch hail with
more discrete cells along the international border/northern ND,
while winds between 70-90 mph will be possible with the developing
MCS. Northeasterly low-level flow on the north side of a surface
warm front may allow for adequate low-level SRH for some
line-embedded tornado threat but confidence in this threat is
limited away from the surface boundary. Regardless, watch issuance
is expected to address these threats.

..Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Fk4-M55q8Ds18wmrsoDQB-QLtv8nfwz38RJKKOHwBZ1wBSBvg7Ft8thhvZ5nO7St5omCLwtZ= h_PQD2c12BCCDpQm8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 48709718 48149722 47659787 46869994 46210151 45990274
46000360 46250426 46730453 47310459 47760457 48600443
48920433 49080392 49079726 48709718=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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