ACUS11 KWNS 062225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062225=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Areas affected...Western SD...northeast WY...and far southeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062225Z - 070000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk of large hail and locally severe gusts
may persist for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated/cellular thunderstorms are evolving in the
vicinity of the Black Hills, where an axis of middle/upper 50s
dewpoints and diurnal heating have yielded weak surface-based
buoyancy (per modified 18Z UNR and RAP soundings). While buoyancy is
somewhat marginal, an elongated/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of
effective shear) should promote transient convective
organization/supercellular structure. Isolated large hail and
locally severe gusts may accompany any longer-lived cells. However,
minimal large-scale ascent (or even slight midlevel height rises)
should keep the severe risk isolated/localized and brief.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8gzgHtGVriXEyIH9nZSl3NpoR-2oD-wbQTbDL0j7cjFKqgOutU_7_sZ11EITbnvrVv8qtlcGh= GBaS9qNYhZ4K-hXvBk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 44640241 44240268 44030332 44140411 44370500 44480533
44700555 44990556 45370523 45570470 45590413 45440325
45220265 44970240 44640241=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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