ACUS11 KWNS 060100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060100=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into northern
Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 574...

Valid 060100Z - 060300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 574 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat of a brief tornado remains over the South Dakota
portion of the watch. However, a transition to damaging wind threat
is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A large complex of thunderstorms within the warm
advection zone over southeast ND continues to build southwestward
into northeast SD, with new cells developing along the heated
surface trough. Storms mode has been mixed, with clustering and
merging outflows.

The 00Z ABR sounding was moist, but relatively cool in the
low-levels. As such, low-level shear from here northeastward has
proved ineffective for tornadoes thus far. However, a substantial
southerly low-level jet persists this evening, and instability
remains substantial. New cells developing within the surface trough
draped across SD could produce a brief tornado before storm mode
becomes unfavorable. Most model solutions depict upscale growth into
an MCS, propagating southeastward through tonight. Damaging winds
should be the main threat in such a scenario.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XYuKy4-lTRsWQFHTals2LpXYwWverFfeqsh20VjBOZv4Tp5LO62iTB37EAbks-yN7-s5w0a7= kcXwpTm9z85G-FD244$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42270194 43300137 44070108 44500095 46029948 46099911
46079811 45759749 44729730 43169764 42299842 42109938
41920053 41940133 42060179 42270194=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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