ACUS11 KWNS 042038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042038=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Areas affected...northeast WY...southeast MT...and western SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042038Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop with a threat of severe
hail/wind downstream of the Big Horn Mountains and along the
western/southern slopes of the Black Hills. While overall
coverage/intensity should be less compared to farther south in the
central High Plains, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible
in the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Initial high-based, low-topped thunderstorms have
formed along the lee of the Big Horn Mountains, with a separate arc
of congested CU along the west to south flank of the Black Hills.
Much of the region between and ahead of these regimes is
characterized by upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points with large temperature/dew point spreads. This is yielding more modest buoyancy
relative to eastern CO and southwest NE. Still, moderate deep-layer
shear should support a few high-based supercells across southwest SD
into the northeast WY/far southeast MT vicinity by early evening. A
mix of sporadic severe hail and wind appears possible. Expected coverage/intensity appears marginally supportive of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hwJurx9tG3WLCzymzAIb6LsOyBI_4rt5_kP8wf9wn6dmfdcIF2sfvPzybTMzh0Muqza8n_Z6= Bh-LXryp2VR05N3LG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 46000496 45230368 43740245 43040238 42880267 43080404
43200487 43970503 45180643 45650639 46000496=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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