ACUS11 KWNS 190140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190139=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma into the southeastern
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

Valid 190139Z - 190315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438.

DISCUSSION...Pulse-severe thunderstorms continue to evolve along
outflow over southwest OK into the southeastern TX Panhandle --
focused within confluent surface winds. While the FDR VWP is
sampling weak (albeit veering) low-level flow, around 30 kt of
midlevel westerly flow is yielding sufficient deep-layer shear for
robust pulsating updrafts -- given strong surface-based instability
(see OUN/FWD 00Z soundings). Instances of large hail and locally
severe gusts remain possible with this activity, before it becomes
too undercut by outflow and/or nocturnal inhibition increases.

..Weinman.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rBCHNIainZIRX9Ue-so58AudldMDTLLKYuP458-BQCZuPhLA2T77isilz_JoxB-zpsFY8QNe= jytDbD095CWK8GrKTA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34519878 34099989 34090054 34180096 34390101 34750066
35029980 35189926 35299864 35249848 34789851 34519878=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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