ACUS11 KWNS 190138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190137=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into
northern and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

Valid 190137Z - 190300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible with short bowing
segments within an eastward-advancing QLCS. A tornado is also
possible, especially over parts of middle TN in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to advance eastward amid a moderately
buoyant thermodynamic environment. Nocturnal cooling is contributing
to a stabilizing boundary layer, which may reduce the overall
robustness of the severe gust threat. Nonetheless, and despite weak
vertical wind shear (compared to areas farther north), the boundary
layer remains supportive of additional strong to severe gusts (based
on modifications of the 00Z BNA observed soundings to match current
surface observations). A tornado could also occur, especially with a
trailing supercell in middle TN over the next couple of hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VhaGUcutkkmNp0-dNAe5VwQpZrrSH9ZeGq0-pdPeVKqyI8abFXMcNkGMUmdML2i0AiajaMVd= 23lVTuBr6mX72qLKjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36848426 35888535 35538596 35438668 35488727 35658760
35788762 36038718 37058584 37968454 38328388 38478304
38288274 37928280 37468343 36848426=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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