ACUS11 KWNS 182258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182258=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into
northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182258Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across central parts
of the Tennessee Valley over the next few hours. Should an
appreciable severe threat materialize, severe gusts will be the main
threat, though a couple instances of severe hail and perhaps a
tornado could also occur. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance may be necessary pending continued favorable convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in both coverage and
intensity ahead of a broad confluence zone. These storms are
intensifying amid a moderately to strongly unstable airmass
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but with weak vertical wind shear and
forcing for ascent. As such, it is not clear how robust further
trends in convective coverage and intensity will be. Should storms
become considerably more intense, at least scattered strong to
potentially severe gusts are likely, with a couple instances of hail
also possible. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given
modest low-level hodograph curvature based on 22Z mesoanalysis. As
such, convective trends are being monitored for the need of a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aoW7xe9axdXcbw4KjaOcXUXHaFOlwk8hrg2CNEjTzxX-2rNAqqkGpGqni0spKkkae2k3omqc= 3aHUrTjQxf0nAIlNpk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36668677 37518595 38348516 38548366 38388327 37818320
37238351 36798390 36638480 36438542 36338622 36378665
36668677=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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