ACUS11 KWNS 182224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182224=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Lower Michigan into western and
central Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...437...

Valid 182224Z - 190000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436, 437
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts should continue with an ongoing, mature MCS
for several more hours. A few instances of marginally severe hail
and perhaps a tornado, also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS, with a history of widespread severe
gusts, continues to progress eastward amid a moderately unstable
airmass, characterized by over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Boundary layer
lapse rates remain in the 7-7.5 C/km range over 300 km ahead of the
line (to the OH/PA border). Since nocturnal cooling will not set in
for at least a few more hours, several more strong to severe gusts
are likely. A couple instances of marginally severe hail are also
possible, and a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6m5IXaYgTyWDHluLGmBhFmH-6KoKyVHOWXn3KZTxLps29tO9owJUeMExEgDFcifzqMio18Ilq= YFdtHFfGr1qtom0sbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 38648511 40708487 41868469 42418490 42948475 43208445
43218371 42608318 41508279 40508263 39268305 38748318
38528367 38518447 38648511=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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