ACUS11 KWNS 182204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182203=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-182330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Ohio into western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182203Z - 182330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short-term damaging gust threat may persist with ongoing
storms. The severe threat with these particular storms should remain
isolated at best, with a severe thunderstorm watch issuance being
unlikely. However, conditions will be monitored for a watch issuance
later this evening with a strong squall line approaching from the
west.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular complexes are persisting amid
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by rich low-level moisture and
steep boundary layer lapse rates. These storms have a history of
producing damaging gusts, and current thinking is that this
potential will continue over the next few hours, while boundary
layer lapse rates remain steep. The severe threat with the ongoing
storms over northeast OH into PA should stay isolated, so a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is unlikely. However, a mature QLCS with
a history of several severe gusts is approaching from the west, and
watch issuance potential with this line will be assessed as it
approaches eastern OH several hours for now.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7F372fN--4Ha-XJrdqhPXKauAu1k0PlaQKEp2dIjvt51rrHJDcWYdfhWwASTJfzBQ3LmBRY6i= mHxcPoCEYBc62ca9nk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41508190 41888066 42197922 42137854 41617829 40677870
40147920 39937975 40068033 40378090 40858155 41508190=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)