ACUS11 KWNS 181744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181744=20
INZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-181945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...eastern IL and western/northern IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 432...434...

Valid 181744Z - 181945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 432, 434 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado and damaging wind potential should increase into
late afternoon amid multiple bands of thunderstorms spreading
east-northeast from Illinois into Indiana. A strong tornado is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Primary midday tornado potential has been prominent
near the immediate MCV/surface cyclone in west-central IL, including
a damaging tornado in Morgan County, IL during the past hour.
Enhanced surface vorticity within this persistent pocket of
lower-topped storms should continue to pose a tornado threat across
central IL.=20

An expanding arc of broken to linear convection into east-central IL
should have increasing tornado/damaging wind potential as it spreads
into IN through late afternoon. Area VWPs have been a bit subdued on
0-1 km shear, but the PAH/VWX VWPs has gradually strengthened and
this should spread north-northeast across the Wabash Valley. Tornado
potential may be relatively maximized with 1) discrete, sustained
supercells on the southern portion of the broader convective band
and 2) in the more bent-back arc across northeast IL/northern IN
with hybrid supercell/QLCS mesovortices.

..Grams.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_slNFTgpE1l5u1O_QxEe4ECJD7LZTdreFES_jFrvFY-1JNNBRpYHdt4uSU3SWscDv0Cw2eN36= hzHTi5cMfDETBJZ3dU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40088992 40828884 41238803 41548731 41818666 41668587
40658592 39758631 38548743 37878793 37788874 38858849
38978843 39668950 40088992=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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