ACUS11 KWNS 181537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181536=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-181730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181536Z - 181730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this
afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of
the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is
being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with
uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An
upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook.

DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling
across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass
immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and
modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into
the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of
enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide
sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level
rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should
remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware
Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated
damaging wind threat may be realized.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LdwTr2G1z0UKzBP4WazAm90GSk5MHTvtYQoXY6eXvf5VUu724zSeYmBUW7ahN3kQGArrh20o= GB5DEwg4vh15wkyjbA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463
38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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