ACUS11 KWNS 180614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180614=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-180815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma into southwestern
Missouri and northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

Valid 180614Z - 180815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
continues.

SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms appears to be in the
process of weakening as it rapidly progresses eastward into the
Ozark Plateau. However, the potential for strong to severe surface
gusts may be slower to diminish, and trends are being monitored for
the possibility of an additional downstream severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...At least one notable meso-beta scale cyclonic
circulation is being maintained, near/east of Bartlesville, OK.
Strong westerly rear inflow, in excess of 60 kts, to its south is
contributing to forward propagation of the main surface cold pool in
excess of 50 kt, within a westerly ambient mean flow regime on the
order of 25-30 kt. At this motion, activity could spread east of
the Branson MO/Harrison AR vicinities between 07-08Z.

2-hourly surface pressure change observations evident indicate that
a broad and significant surface pressure perturbation is being
maintained with the convective system. However, radar has indicated substantive weakening of the more intense leading convective line
the last hour or so. It remains unclear if this may be due to a
potential stabilizing influence on easterly updraft inflow from a
smaller preceding cluster, or the gradual increase in inhibition
associated with boundary-layer cooling.=20=20

Based on current model output and observations, weakening convective
trends probably will continue through 08-09z, but strong to severe
surface gusts may be a bit slower to diminish with the residual
surface cold pool.

..Kerr.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xpYVOuib9FquwBuXkg7aF7GBjK653PGFKutQIAUj-FZUnkeT7Beha8rkV5QGKOZSea5Y_wuP= C_m6dPGmD8vf1o02Nw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36739448 36959429 36879306 36039271 35709330 35819452
35959447 36389444 36739448=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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