ACUS11 KWNS 180148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180148=20
TXZ000-180315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Rolling Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

Valid 180148Z - 180315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail
continues across the Rolling Plains.

DISCUSSION...A pair of organized thunderstorm clusters (with
occasional supercellular structures) continue tracking slowly east-southeastward across the Rolling Plains. These storms have a
history of producing severe wind gusts (measured 68 mph) and
marginally severe hail. The MAF 00Z sounding (which should be
generally representative of the near-storm environment) sampled
steep deep-layer lapse rates, while the LBB VWP depicts a
long/straight hodograph (around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear). This should
support the maintenance of the ongoing storms, with a continued risk
of severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail.=20

While these storms will have a tendency of tracking southeastward
out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 with time, current thinking is
that increased inhibition at the base of the EML will eventually
lead to weakening with southeastward extent. Therefore, a new watch
is not currently expected, though convective trends are being
monitored.

..Weinman.. 06/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5fiP0miYu-hWA2QkKYAlDVXqPNXqaH0cGQJiym6gk6gfxaCLG5KBQyXu8bpcnZjMWw8xG3aca= KgyXy2-yn_5NyT7420$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33330203 34200104 34340066 34310022 34059984 33649981
33130021 32610122 32710175 32950199 33330203=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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