ACUS11 KWNS 172216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172216=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

Valid 172216Z - 172345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds may accompany convection as it spreads
southeast this evening. It's not entirely clear whether a new WW
will be warranted downstream across eastern Colorado into western
Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough ejecting east-southeast across eastern WY/northeast CO.
Scattered strong/severe convection has developed ahead of this
feature, especially across the central High Plains where an MCS is
maturing. Latest radar imagery suggests a gradually expanding precip
shield over northeast CO into southwest NE. The leading edge of this
activity is likely generating near-severe wind gusts, but the
downstream air mass has not fully recovered from earlier convective overturning. Large-scale support favors this MCS propagating across
the remainder of northeast CO toward northwest KS and there is some
concern the organized nature of this cluster will continue to
produce locally severe winds. It's not clear whether a new severe
thunderstorm watch will be issued, but it under consideration.

..Darrow.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FiVy7gdRWED3mss8CwF-13c3qddDQ9KzypQVwrR5Mh_B-unDYMv6SQ1F3JIseZldoIzeAn6F= Ai0lZKr4YfwRKPO4xk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40690204 40170074 37550146 37410287 38260362 39630338
40690204=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)