ACUS11 KWNS 172143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172143=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into far
north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...

Valid 172143Z - 172315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.

SUMMARY...Parts of south-central Kansas is the most favorable
corridor for a couple supercell tornadoes during the next couple
hours -- within Tornado Watch 429.

DISCUSSION...A semi-discrete supercell is evolving just north of a
remnant outflow boundary intersection over far south-central KS this
afternoon. Along and north of the boundary, an earlier sheltered
boundary layer (with backed easterly surface winds) has destabilized substantially, with temperatures in the lower/middle 80s amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints. This strongly unstable surface-based air,
combined with around 50 kt of effective shear, will favor
intensification of the ongoing supercell and additional cells that
develop on its flanks. Additionally, a large clockwise-curved
hodograph (200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) per earlier VWP data and
mesoanalysis will support a couple supercell tornadoes with any
sustained supercells in this corridor over the next couple hours.

..Weinman.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mHAcB6vi7rGHkRCvQLOHZtnorBOTiYEbt8XN38xWLYVKkl3f3HyKFh7BRE_aPyPYRZO-ljsu= 6BHDtmqN4V7cC-8W5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36929757 37209821 37399820 37539802 37619737 37539672
37349642 36929648 36859695 36929757=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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