ACUS11 KWNS 171827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171827=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...southern KS...northern OK...and the northeast TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 171827Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected by late afternoon
as supercells likely develop and intensify along/ahead of remnant
outflow boundaries and a southeast-moving cold front. A watch
issuance is expected, most likely tornado.

DISCUSSION...A persistent arc of elevated convection has been
ongoing throughout the day in the wake of an overnight MCS. This west/east-oriented broken band should begin to accelerate southeast
and may take on increasingly surface-based character heading into
late afternoon, as boundary layer recovery has been prominent across
southern KS. A few additional storms may develop south of this
activity into northern OK and the northeast TX Panhandle as MLCIN
weakens over the next few hours. The ICT VWP depicts a favorable
supercell wind profile near the large-scale outflow boundary. Any
sustained storms ahead of the broken convective band will pose a
risk for tornadoes and very large hail. Otherwise, a mix of isolated
to scattered severe gusts and hail is anticipated as this round of
convection shifts east-southeast into early evening.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-b2QZkgqio94eKsn6amNELlh2JnzubMK6K_dm_78U35Bog_hKCuP6rKx485Xa6yF9pl0UOHl2= xAnlQ1Mr9yqbK16zaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36369868 35890004 35940079 36520098 37040000 37949896
38079845 38019755 37839681 37679582 37509546 37149526
36879525 36569560 36429599 36479653 36369868=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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