ACUS11 KWNS 171253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171252=20
OKZ000-171445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...parts of east central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

Valid 171252Z - 171445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
continues.

SUMMARY...The stronger lingering storms will continue to spread south-southeastward toward the McAlester vicinity through 9-10 AM
CDT, but intensities are expected to weaken further with
diminishing potential for strong to severe surface gusts. A new
severe weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The organized southeastward propagating convective
system has undergone substantive weakening over the past few hours,
with stronger convection shrinking in areal extent and surface gusts diminishing in peak intensity. A notable (2-4+ mb 2-hourly surface
pressure rises evident in 12Z surface observations) small cold pool
is providing support for this convection as it propagates southeast
of the Stillwater OK vicinity. Based on its 30-35 kt forward
propagation, it could approach the McAlester vicinity by 15Z.=20
However, based on current trends, including weakening forcing for
ascent in the presence of considerable mid-level inhibition, it
seems probable that convection will continue to wane, with further
weakening of the surface cold pool and diminishing surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HZJNp0bykL-_QtKc3CEfYETIYYILzyjosoa4TlAydtFdTX5Onn_r9d0R9GHnb7KSFw25cAlb= W34Jfhv5UOPRrsumd0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36249634 35999568 34869559 35009632 35839658 36249634=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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