ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New
Mexico border eastward into central Texas.

...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower
MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves
across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO
to the lower OH Valley. The warmest surface temperatures and
steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal
corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely
exceed 2500 J/kg. Strong surface heating/mixing will erode
convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable along and just south of the front by
late afternoon across west central TX. Storms will then spread east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight
hours. The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs
(effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable
of producing isolated very large hail initially. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with
an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may
also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-South Thursday evening...
With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and
northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Midlevel lapse rate will not be
steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of
storms near and south of the surface cyclone track. Forecast wind
profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end
threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening...
A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a
residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon from southeast AL/FL
Panhandle across southern/central GA. There is some potential for a
remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area
during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind
probabilities may become necessary in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281738
SWODY2
SPC AC 281737

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR DAY REFERENCES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Texas-New
Mexico border eastward into central Texas.

...TX late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over the lower
MO Valley/Ozarks, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves
across MO/AR/OK/TX in the wake of weak cyclogenesis from southern MO
to the lower OH Valley. The warmest surface temperatures and
steepest midlevel lapse rates are expected in the pre-frontal
corridor from west central into central TX, where MLCAPE will likely
exceed 2500 J/kg. Strong surface heating/mixing will erode
convective inhibition and at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable along and just south of the front by
late afternoon across west central TX. Storms will then spread east-southeastward toward central TX through the early overnight
hours. The strong buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs
(effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt) will support supercells capable
of producing isolated very large hail initially. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters is also expected during the evening, with
an attendant threat for damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may
also occur with the initial supercells and/or favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-South Thursday evening...
With weak cyclogenesis expected across southern MO in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough, weak low-level mass response and
northward moisture transport will occur from eastern AR to the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Midlevel lapse rate will not be
steep, but destabilization will be sufficient for a broken band of
storms near and south of the surface cyclone track. Forecast wind
profiles suggest some potential for rotating storms with a low-end
threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast Thursday afternoon/evening...
A moist boundary layer and daytime heating along and south of a
residual baroclinic zone will likely support at least scattered
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon from southeast AL/FL
Panhandle across southern/central GA. There is some potential for a
remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel trough to cross this area
during peak heating, and an upgrade to SLGT risk/15% wind
probabilities may become necessary in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from parts
of the Eastern Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Georgia/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Gulf Coast States...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, as a jet streak translates eastward across the Southeast.
Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place
from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will
likely result in moderate destabilization across much of this
airmass by midday. Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by
topographic forcing, is expected to take place in the southern and
central Appalachians during the early afternoon. Convection will
move eastward into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
states during the mid to late evening, where a severe threat will
likely develop. The increase in large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear associated with the approaching mid-level jet will be a driver
for the severe threat Friday afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis during the
afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1500 J/kg, and that 0-6
km shear will increase into the 50 to 60 knot range. While the
low-levels are forecast to remain veered to the southwest, strong
speed shear will be present in the 850 to 500 mb layer. This will be
favorable for supercells and bowing line segments. 0-3 km lapse
rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km, which will support a
potential for damaging wind gusts. Supercells will also be capable
of producing isolated large hail, especially in areas where the
maximum potential for surface heating is realized. Although
low-level shear is not expected to be that strong, any supercell
that becomes intense could produce a brief tornado. The severe
threat is expected to move eastward onto the Atlantic Coastal Plain
in the late afternoon, and toward the Atlantic Coast during the
evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, flow is forecast to become north-northwesterly over
the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, in the wake of
an exiting trough. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be
located over the western Great Lakes, where flow will be
northwesterly. A pocket of locally higher surface dewpoints is
forecast from eastern Wisconsin into lower Michigan. Within this
pocket, weak instability is expected to develop along the western
edge of the higher surface dewpoints, along and inland from the
western shore of Lake Michigan. Along this north-to-south corridor,
surface heating and low-level convergence will make convective
initiation likely during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z
from Chicago to Milwaukee have 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8.5
C/km, which will be favorable for isolated marginally severe gusts.
In addition, 500 mb temps will be relatively cold near -17C, which
could also support a potential for hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible especially Friday afternoon and evening
across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
As large-scale pattern amplification occurs over the CONUS, a
shortwave trough located over the lower Ohio River Valley early
Friday morning, will steadily progress east-southeastward over the
southern Appalachians and reach the Carolinas/Virginia by Friday
evening. Strong winds aloft will accompany this shortwave trough
with a belt of 60+ kt mid-level winds overspreading the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas.

While the warm sector preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold
front will not be strongly unstable, particularly by late-spring
standards, prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints, steepening mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
severe storms especially into Friday afternoon through early
evening, including relatively fast-moving storms for late spring.
While a few early day severe storms could occur across eastern
Kentucky and nearby Allegheny Plateau/Appalachians, the main severe
risk should begin to evolve in the immediate lee of the Appalachians
including the Blue Ridge vicinity by Friday early/mid-afternoon.
These storms, including some supercells and more prevalent evolving
linear clusters with bowing segments, should reach coastal areas by
early evening. Damaging winds and severe hail can be expected, and
some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly across
Virginia/North Carolina near the surface wave and warm front where
low-level shear/SRH should maximize.

...Eastern Wisconsin/northern Illinois/Lake Michigan vicinity...
A south/southeastward-digging clipper-type shortwave trough will
influence the region into Friday afternoon and evening, with
thunderstorms potentially focusing near a weak surface
wave/instability gradient as a cold front otherwise progresses
southward across the region. Low-level moisture will be rather
modest with afternoon dewpoints generally limited to the lower 50s
F. However, relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong
vertical shear, enhanced by 50+ northwesterly mid-level winds,
should support strong/isolated severe storms Friday afternoon into
evening, with hail and wind possible as storms progress
south-southeastward.

...Eastern New Mexico...
While the overall scenario will not be as severe storm-favorable as
prior days, a couple of locally severe storms may occur Friday
afternoon/early evening mainly near the higher terrain of
east-central New Mexico.

..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Kansas to
northwest Texas and across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into North
Carolina, mainly during the afternoon to evening Saturday. Isolated
damaging winds are also possible over south Florida from late
morning into the afternoon.

...KS to northwest TX...
Sufficient confidence exists to warrant a severe area delineation.
Overall setup should support isolated severe hail and wind from late
afternoon into mid-evening.

A compact shortwave impulse will move south-southeast from the
northern into the central Great Plains on Saturday. This will aid in
increasing large-scale ascent, favorably timed with peak diurnal
heating across KS into OK. While rich Gulf moisture will remain
confined to south TX, evapotranspiration should be adequate to yield
weak to moderate buoyancy. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest away
from the immediate influence of the impulse, and this will broadly
curtail updraft strength to an extent. But weak low-level
southerlies veering to at least moderate mid-level northwesterlies
should yield a favorable deep-layer shear profile for a few
organized cells. The confined buoyancy plume will likely yield a
diminishing severe threat as convection spreads south-southeast
after dusk.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic States to NC...
Overall setup is expected to yield sporadic damaging winds and
isolated marginally severe hail. Have broadened the level 1-MRGL
risk to account for potential convective development emanating east
from the lee of the southern/central Appalachians.

In the wake of extensive convection on D1, persistent low-level west
to west-northwesterlies should yield substantially lower mean-mixing
ratios by Saturday afternoon. However, both steep low to mid-level
lapse rates are expected from VA northward beneath the eastern CONUS
trough. This should be adequate for weak MLCAPE. Another shortwave
impulse digging through the base of the trough should aid in
isolated to perhaps scattered lower-topped storms by afternoon.
Guidance does differ markedly with the degree of residual low-level
moisture and overall convective coverage amid weak low-level
convergence. Strong low to mid-level flow will be more pronounced
with southern extent into NC, but this is where sustained convective development becomes more uncertain.

...South FL...
Convection should be ongoing across the central FL Peninsula at 12Z
Saturday ahead of a surface cold front shifting south and weak
mid-level height falls along the peripheral influence of the broad
trough over the East. Although mid-level lapse rates will be weak
ahead of morning storms, downstream boundary-layer heating should
support moderate buoyancy. With moderate mid-level westerlies,
multicell clusters may spread across south FL into the afternoon.
Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts are possible.

..Grams.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301730
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
THE RED RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon/night from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the
Red River.

...Synopsis...
An amplified pattern will continue with a deep trough over the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge over the northern High
Plains. A smaller-scale shortwave trough, now over eastern MT, will
dig south-southeastward to KS/OK during the afternoon/evening, with
a weak surface reflection/trough providing a focus for severe-storm
development Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Southern KS/central OK Saturday afternoon/night...
Modest moisture return will occur ahead of the weak surface trough
and digging shortwave trough, though strong surface heating and evapotranspiration will contribute to destabilization as a result of
full green-up and favorable soil moisture. Storm initiation appears
most probable from southern KS into central OK by late afternoon
along and just east of a weak surface trough, and storms will spread south-southeastward through the early overnight hours. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE approaching 1500-2000 J/kg), minimal convective
inhibition, and long hodographs will support supercells capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Low-level moisture will be
on the lower margins for a tornado threat, though a couple of
tornadoes could occur during the evening with favorable storm
interactions.

...Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon...
In the wake of a pronounced shortwave trough and fairly widespread
D1 convection, low-level moisture/buoyancy will be more limited
tomorrow. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
the afternoon as an embedded speed max (now approaching Lake
Superior) rotates over VA/NC during the afternoon. Daytime heating
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will drive weak
buoyancy, in an environment with 500 mb temperatures of -15 to -20 C
with strong west-northwesterly, deep-layer vertical shear. The net
result will be the potential for strong/isolated damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Central/south FL during the day...
A band of convection will shift southward from central into south FL
during the day, along and ahead of a surface cold front. There are
concerns about the degree of surface heating and midlevel lapse
rates given relatively early arrival of the convection. However,
flow aloft will be unusually strong from the west, which suggest
some potential for storm organization and an accompanying threat for
wind damage.

..Thompson.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310545
SWODY2
SPC AC 310543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas.
Isolated severe storms are also possible with similar timing over
the Carolinas and a portion of the northern Rockies.

...East TX...
A compact shortwave impulse near the Ozarks at 12Z Sunday should
track southeast across the Lower MS Valley towards the central Gulf
Coast. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest to the
west-southwest of this wave, a belt of moderate mid-level to strong
upper-level northwesterlies is anticipated during the afternoon.
With weak low-level winds veering with height, this setup should
yield favorable hodograph elongation for supercells.

The primary uncertainties are 1) the coverage of afternoon storms
and 2) the spatial location for a mesoscale corridor of greater
threat. More aggressive guidance appears to develop convection both
along a convergent dryline towards the I-35 corridor and eastward
within a weak low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is aided
by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across a confined
plume of rich western Gulf moisture. While there is spatial and
coverage uncertainty, the consensus signal for a few supercells
warrants an upgrade to a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. Scattered
large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazards
before convection weakens after dusk.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream, positive-tilt impulse will shift towards the northern
Rockies Sunday night. The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front
pushing east across much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon
Sunday. Primary severe potential is anticipated within a confined
corridor over the adjacent high terrain to the west-southwest. This
corridor will lie between a belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterlies to its north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic
profiles to its south. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate by mid to late afternoon. Strong to isolated severe gusts
along with small to marginally severe hail are possible.

...Carolinas...
Yet another shortwave impulse rotating through the base of the
persistent longwave trough over the East should aid in mid-afternoon
storm development east of the southern Appalachians. Buoyancy will
be weak amid marginal mid-level lapse rates and low-level
westerlies. But steep low-level lapse rates coupled with sufficient
speed shear should yield a few transient/weak supercell to multicell
structures as convection develops off the higher terrain and along a quasi-stationary front into the evening. Small to marginally severe
hail may develop in initial cores. This would aid in downdrafts
producing strong surface gusts capable of isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas. More
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
mid-Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians, central
High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Little change is expected to the overall synoptic regime over the
next 48 hours across the country. Long-wave ridging will persist
across much of the Rockies/Plains with embedded shortwave troughs
propagating across the western CONUS. To the east, a long-wave
trough will undergo gradual de-amplification as it continues to
shift east/northeast. Overall, this synoptic regime will favor
multiple focused corridors of at least low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm potential, though the greatest risk will reside across
parts of TX where buoyancy/shear should be most conducive for
organized convection.

...Central to eastern Texas...
Early-morning convection associated with the progressive shortwave
trough currently over the central Plains will likely be ongoing
across parts of north/northeast TX by 12z Sunday. Recent forecast
guidance suggests this activity will weaken through morning,
possibly leaving an outflow boundary draped across parts of
eastern/central TX. Heating of a moist air mass along and west of
the boundary and/or along a weak surface trough should yield around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon with weak capping. Recent
convective allowing guidance continues to show some uncertainty
regarding convective coverage within this weakly forced regime, but
all solutions show at least a few robust cells developing along the boundary/trough by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
associated with the departing upper-level perturbation will support
adequate deep-layer wind shear for supercells capable of severe
gusts and large to very large (2+ inches in diameter) hail. While
low-level wind shear is expected to generally be weak for much of
the region, a tornado threat may materialize if convection can
become rooted along the boundary where low-level vorticity may be
locally maximized.

...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
A diffuse cold front currently pushing south across the Midwest/OH
Valley is forecast to stall from southern IL into parts of KY, TN,
and the Carolinas by peak heating Sunday. A combination of moist
low-level conditions and weak capping should facilitate thunderstorm development along the front by late afternoon. 25-30 knot mid-level
flow within the base of a mid-level trough should allow for
sufficient deep-layer wind shear for a few organized cells/clusters
capable of severe hail and sporadic damaging winds. Confidence in
the severe threat is greatest across eastern TN into the Carolinas
where mesoscale ascent along the boundary will be aided by lift
ahead of the trough axis.

...Northern Rockies...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies through Sunday evening. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and modest broad-scale ascent ahead of the
wave should promote thunderstorm development by late afternoon from
eastern ID into western MT. Although overall buoyancy will be modest
(MUCAPE approaching 200-400 J/kg), strong speed shear within the
CAPE-bearing layer (around 35-40 knots within the 0-3 km layer)
should promote some storm organization/longevity with an attendant
hail/wind risk.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development along the eastern slopes of the central
Rockies is anticipated by mid-afternoon within a weak upslope flow
regime. 20-25 knot westerly mid-level flow will not only help
elongate hodographs, but will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates
into the region. This, combined with slightly improved low-level
moisture, should be sufficient for a few robust thunderstorms
capable of severe gusts and perhaps large hail.

...South Florida...
The frontal boundary currently drifting southward along the FL
peninsula is forecast to stall later tonight/early Sunday morning.
Although forcing for ascent along the stalled boundary will be weak,
very moist low-level conditions and limited capping will promote
thunderstorm development across the central peninsula by late
morning. Through late afternoon, additional heating combined with
persistent 25-30 knot mid-level flow aloft should promote some storm organization with an attendant wind threat across southern FL.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010544
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front
preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern
MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen
near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into
eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...
Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD
portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak
mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong
mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely
lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly
multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures
in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered
on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet
strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are
possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes.

...KS to southern High Plains vicinity...
Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate
from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent
ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough
over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west
of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north
TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow
enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development,
likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell
structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater
MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early
evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far
downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is
uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater
low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011722
SWODY2
SPC AC 011720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...

An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by
a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies
to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough
develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High
Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will
modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending
southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be
oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO
by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across
the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front
and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm
activity during the afternoon/evening.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...

Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a
somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front
during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly
increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region.
Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid
60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further
west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely
to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border
vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail
will be possible.

Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into
the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The
stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the
front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side
of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will
likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of
producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores.
Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward
extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after
03-06z.

...KS to the southern High Plains...

Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO
in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east,
but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across
the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough.
Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it
spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a
corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability
from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward
late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will
be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing
segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of
increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into
western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be
limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical
shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame.

..Leitman.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020541
SWODY2
SPC AC 020539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level
southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis
should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front.
Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a
surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains.

...TX Big Country to the Ozarks...
More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with
southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized
by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should
yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of
the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells.

Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS
through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX
during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear
segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the
effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two,
transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The
severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night.

...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI...
A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas
of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant
warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level
lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection
and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the
southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south
of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average
regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given
the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some
damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley
with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021732
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream midlevel shortwave trough, initially over the
central High Plains, will move northeastward into the Mid/Upper MS
Valley while becoming absorbed into a broad large-scale trough
across the western/central CONUS. A related cold front extending
from the Upper Midwest southwestward to a weak lee cyclone over the
central High Plains will advance east-southeastward across the MS
Valley and southern Plains through the period. This large-scale
evolution will result in a belt of moderate-strong midlevel
southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest,
where a broad/strong low-level jet will overlie a moist,
destabilizing boundary layer.

...Central Texas to the Ozarks...
Modestly enhanced/focused forcing for ascent preceding the
southern-stream shortwave trough and weak lee cyclone over the
southern/central Plains will support numerous bands of
eastward-moving thunderstorms during the afternoon into the
evening/overnight hours. While overnight convection and related
boundary-layer overturning is expected here, diurnal heating of an
increasingly moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) will still
yield moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 30-40 kt
of effective shear, will support a mix of supercell clusters and
organized line segments -- capable of producing scattered severe
wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a couple embedded tornadoes.
While there does appear to be a focused/favorable corridor for
swaths of severe wind with upscale-growing convection (especially
over the central/southern Plains), early-day storms limit confidence
in the overall convective evolution -- precluding an upgrade to
30-percent wind/ENH at this time.

...Mid MS Valley to the Upper Midwest...
Increased cloud coverage across the warm/moist sector with
northeastern extent will tend to limit instability, especially given
poor midlevel lapse rates. Nevertheless, ample boundary-layer
moisture and at least pockets of heating will contribute to
weak/locally moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of the cold
front. Given 40-50 kt of effective shear amid the strong/broad
low-level jet, convective organization into clusters/lines and some
supercell structures is expected along/ahead of the cold front.
Widely scattered damaging winds will be the primary concern with
this activity, though isolated instances of severe hail will also be
possible.

..Weinman.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030544
SWODY2
SPC AC 030543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND EASTERN MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across
the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening.

...NM to southern CO and west TX...
A lower-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough will accelerate
from the Lower CO Valley, shifting across the southern Rockies onto
the south-central High Plains by 12Z Thursday. Widespread
thunderstorm coverage is likely Wednesday afternoon ahead of this
trough, centered on the Four Corners region. Despite weak buoyancy
owing to a surface ridge at 12Z Wednesday across the southern High
Plains, a belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies to the
east-southeast of the trough should yield a few weak supercells.
These should be focused across northern NM into southern CO during
the mid-afternoon to early evening. A lone supercell may also
develop over the Trans-Pecos. Isolated severe hail/wind may occur.

Low-level moisture return and attendant MUCAPE will increase
Wednesday night across west TX into far eastern NM. With
strengthening large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough approaches, regenerative thunderstorm development is anticipated. Strong
effective bulk shear may foster a corridor of early-morning
supercells with a primary hazard of isolated large hail. South of
this corridor, capping will probably inhibit sustained storm
development. Confidence in reliably highlighting a mesoscale
corridor is too low to warrant a categorical upgrade.

..IL to OH/lower MI...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday will become confined to ON/QC
as a low-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of at least moderate 700-500 mb winds will
persist into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a
weakening/stalling cold front. While mid-level lapse rates will
remain weak and limit buoyancy, sufficient boundary-layer heating
will exist for scattered thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail will
be possible with initial cells, but clusters should dominate given
the nearly parallel orientation of the front/shear vector. Sporadic
strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds may persist into the early/mid-evening, before convection wanes after dusk.

..Grams.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031715
SWODY2
SPC AC 031713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across
the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted trough will dominate much of the weather
pattern across the CONUS on Wednesday with a base across the
Southwest and a trough axis extending toward the northern Plains.
Multiple shortwaves will be embedded within this flow which may
result in focused regions of thunderstorms on Wednesday. At the
surface, a stalled front will extend from the Great Lakes to Far
West Texas. This front will be a focus for storm development
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

...Eastern Midwest...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a frontal
zone from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning.
Convergence will be weak through the day as the front/composite
outflow slowly shifts east through the period. Weak to potentially
moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 60s.
Overall forcing will be weak with rising heights aloft and weakening convergence along the frontal zone. Moderate shear will be present
through much of the day, but it will be oriented parallel to the
frontal zone which is less favorable for sustained severe storms. An environment featuring weak to moderate instability and moderate
deep-layer shear will support some isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts. However, a more organized threat does not appear likely.


...Southwest into Southern High Plains...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will
move east across the Southwest on Wednesday. Ahead of this feature,
low-level flow will veer and bring low-level moisture northwestward
across eastern New Mexico. Weak to potentially moderate instability
will develop by mid-day with thunderstorms likely initially over the
higher terrain and eventually shifting east. Moderate shear will
support the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts. These storms may be somewhat on the smaller side
given the weaker buoyancy. However, there is a conditional risk for
one or two larger/stronger supercells to persist into the evening
across the Texas Panhandle if moisture/instability can recover ahead
of the storms moving out of New Mexico.

Strong shear will be present across southeast New Mexico into Far
West Texas beneath the mid-level jet streak. If sufficient
instability can develop far enough west into the higher terrain, a
few supercells are possible with a primary threat for large hail.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this
activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of
this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and
the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much
more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal
destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity,
robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains
from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an
expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon.

With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to
scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the
higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late
afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between
these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low.
Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where
convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible,
with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident
off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater
hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of
very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this
similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid
strengthening warm advection. This should result in a
forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX
Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The
amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the
degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of
below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant
greater probabilities.

...Mid-South to New England...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted broad trough will be present at the beginning of
the period Thursday with an axis extending from the Southwest to the
northern Plains. Through the day, the overall pattern will become
more zonal with moderate mid-level flow across the central/southern
Plains where confluent mid-level flow will be present. Weak lee
troughing is expected across the central Plains which will lead to
northward moisture recovery across the southern/central Plains and
some sharpening of a frontal zone across the region.

...Southern/Central High Plains into Kansas/Oklahoma...
A cluster of storms will likely be present across West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle within a region of moderate isentropic ascent. This
cluster should weaken by late morning/early afternoon. However, some
12Z guidance (HRRR) has this cluster persisting long enough for
surface based inhibition to erode and eventual strengthening/new
development by early to mid-afternoon. The more likely scenario will
be a decaying MCS with remnant outflow extending into West Texas/the
southern Texas Panhandle. This region, where the dryline intersects
remnant outflow, will likely be a focus for supercell development
Thursday afternoon. Large to potentially very large hail will be
possible given the steep lapse rates and very strong shear. In
addition, enhanced shear along this boundary could lead to a locally
greater tornado threat. Higher probabilities could be necessary in
later outlooks, but uncertainty in the evolution of early day
convection and its impact on the afternoon storms limit confidence
in where this higher probability corridor may be present and the
nature of destabilization within this zone.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 90s across the Trans Pecos on
Thursday with dewpoints in the 60s east of the dryline. This will
support strong instability and scattered storm development across
the higher terrain during the afternoon. Moderate shear should
result in storm organization including a few supercells with a
primary hazard of large hail.

Weak to moderate instability is forecast across eastern Colorado and
into southeast Wyoming on Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms are
forecast along the dryline during the afternoon. Limited instability
is a likely primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather
threat. Where instability is greater, south of a tightening frontal
zone across southern Kansas greater storm intensity is likely. If
surface-based instability can develop during the afternoon/evening, surface-based supercells will be possible within this frontal zone
with a threat for large hail (some very large) and a few tornadoes.
Even if diurnal destabilization does not support strong supercell
development, supercell development is likely during the late evening
as the low-level jet strengthens and isentropic ascent increases
across the TX/OK Panhandle.

During this period of strengthening isentropic ascent, expect
upscale growth into a MCS which is forecast to track east across
southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma during the overnight period. A
corridor of severe wind potential will likely exist along the path
of this MCS Thursday night/early Friday morning.

...Ozarks to the Northeast...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.

...Southern Great/High Plains...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.

The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.

...Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken
somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and
persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will
develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain
modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate.
Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present
and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated
severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the
large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV,
scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to
northern parts of MS/AL/GA.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.
Additional severe storms producing damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of southern New England Friday afternoon.

...Central/Southern High Plains into OK...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning across portions of the
Ozarks and arcing into parts of OK. The southern end of this
convection over the southern Plains will likely weaken during the
morning with an outflow reinforced boundary becoming oriented across
southern OK into the southern TX Panhandle/South Plains and
east-central NM. It is uncertain how far northward this boundary may
modify northward through the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow
will maintain a very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints)
near and south of the boundary, with more modest dewpoints (50s to
low 60s F) further north from eastern CO/northeast NM into southern
KS/northern OK.

Moderate westerly flow aloft will persist through the day, with
neutral height tendencies until late (after 06z) in the period when
some modest height falls are forecast as a shortwave impulse moves east/southeast across the central Rockies into the central Plains.
This will aid in the development of a 30-40 kt southwesterly jet
across the southern High Plains during the overnight hours.

The expectation is that isolated to widely scattered supercells will
develop over the higher terrain of southeast CO/eastern NM/far west
TX in a moist upslope flow regime as strong heating occurs through
the afternoon. Stronger MLCAPE (up to 3000 J/kg) will be confined to
the area near the surface outflow where stronger low-level moisture
will be focused. Elongated/straight hodographs above 2 km and steep
midlevel lapse rates suggest large to very large hail will be
possible (greater than 2 inch diameter) in addition to strong gusts.
There is some potential convection could organize into a southeast
propagating cluster/MCS moving from southeast CO/northeast NM into
the northwest OK overnight. Higher outlook probabilities could
become necessary if confidence in this scenario increases and as
mesoscale details (location of surface outflows) become better
resolved.

...Ozarks to TN/Lower OH Valleys...

An MCV tied to ongoing morning MCS over the Ozarks will develop
eastward into the OH Valley through evening. Morning convection may
weaken initially before re-invigoration/redevelopment occurs during
the afternoon as the downstream airmass becomes moderately to
strongly unstable, aided by strong heating and dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s F. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with
this activity, especially if updraft consolidation occurs within
storm clusters closer to the MCV where midlevel flow will be
enhanced, resulting in some forward propagation. Vertical shear will
be more modest with southward extent, but instability will be
stronger, supporting at least an isolated severe wind risk into the
TN Valley vicinity.

...Portions of southern New England...

A weak surface boundary will be draped across portions of New
England into central OH Friday afternoon. Ahead of this boundary,
rich low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) dewpoints will be
focused in a corridor from eastern PA into MA/CT and southern
VT/NH/ME. Strong heating within this corridor will result in a
narrow corridor of moderate destabilization (MLCAPE greater than
2000 J/kg). Steepened low-level lapse rates also will foster DCAPE
near 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes, but strong instability will support
strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts through the
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK
into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase
with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to
the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave
will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians
by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly
flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread
Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700
mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will
overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500
J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in
stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of
MO/IL/KY and vicinity.

The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging
wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection
is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the
morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and
rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions
of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters
with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may
occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective
evolution.

Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with
the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into
the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the
airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability
could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for
organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases.
While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for
damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist
during the afternoon into early evening.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will
shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early
evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow
over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold
front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible.
Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small
bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the
afternoon.

...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX...

Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on
Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the
morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting
eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest
upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts
and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may
develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the
vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and
unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear
will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage.
Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with
any storms that can develop.

...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern
Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented
trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality
destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled
with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with
somewhat low-topped/high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN
TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the
wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will
become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9
C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front
from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon.

With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal
intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as
the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the
eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance
continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along
and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles
from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the
strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable
of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows,
further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west
TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that
should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS.
This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures
capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes.
The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the
development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail
potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in
spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that
will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by
late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely
weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A
strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to
southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast
will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal
into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant
severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a
brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as
southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate
buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple
embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms
developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the
coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak
updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds
and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also
possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential
heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a
central Appalachians MCV.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071736
SWODY2
SPC AC 071735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071746
SWODY2
SPC AC 071745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071750
SWODY2
SPC AC 071749

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and
Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE
(3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a
relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080549
SWODY2
SPC AC 080547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Southeast...
Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread
across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and
attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields
outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection
should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the
large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the
Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind
it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the
afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for
scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast.

...Upper OH Valley...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to
the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has
trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal
mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging
winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop
amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume,
convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern
Appalachians on Monday evening.

...NM/TX...
An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite
outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over
central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will
probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the
southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind
threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level
warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night.
Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for
a few storms capable of severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081731
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization
and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general
consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max
and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for
this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and
moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast.
Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features,
including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer
destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will
likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary
risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater
severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to
limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor
remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this
outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal
zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley
Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the Upper Midwest into
the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward
push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening
mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be
confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front,
with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However,
this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should
temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe
are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered
damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability
tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist.

...Southern High Plains...
The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind
the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively
cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong
heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing
low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or
even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection
possible. These factors could allow convection that initially
develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward
into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong
gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for
forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the
evening.

...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX...
The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from
northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as
it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm
low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall
thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible with any storms that develop.

...Northwest TX...
Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm
theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective
bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable
of severe hail.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090551
SWODY2
SPC AC 090550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
TRANS-PECOS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for a few severe storms, primarily in the
form of large hail, is across the Texas Trans-Pecos during the late
afternoon Tuesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from
southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the
Northwest.

...Southeast NM and southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture. Combined
with steep mid-level lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg is expected. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the region during the afternoon. In combination with
diurnal orographic ascent, scattered to eventually widespread
thunderstorm development is anticipated. A narrow belt of moderate
mid-level westerlies, centered on the Trans-Pecos, should support a
few supercells in the late afternoon. Large hail will likely be the
primary hazard with sub-10 percent coverage of very large hail
possible. Outside of the Trans-Pecos, sporadic severe wind/hail will
be possible with low confidence on organized upscale growth along
the Rio Grande on Tuesday evening.

...South-central TX to south LA...
A loosely-organized MCS should be ongoing in south-central TX at 12Z
Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous large-scale pattern,
guidance has a fair amount of spread with subsequent evolution
through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may
occur by midday along the residual outflow, along with downstream
development towards a quasi-stationary front in LA. Deep-layer shear
will be modest, especially outside of any localized enhancement near
the remnant MCV. Confidence is too low to warrant greater than level
1-MRGL risk probabilities at this time, but isolated severe
wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern ON to the OH/TN
Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough will
gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising mid-level
heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where stronger
deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears quite
limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the southern
periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days.

...Northwest...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this process occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more
westerly with moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies.
Despite weak buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected. The strongest of these may attain low-end supercell
structure from western to south-central MT during the late afternoon
to early evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale
ascent with approach of the shortwave trough should support
scattered late afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to
a couple brief supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe
wind/hail events may occur in both regimes.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for severe storms on Tuesday, primarily in
the form of large hail, is across far southeast New Mexico and the
Texas Trans-Pecos during the late afternoon through early evening.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Tuesday into
Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New
Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the Northwest.

...Southeast NM and Far West/Southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture in vicinity
of a front and weak surface wave. Combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is
expected. An upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough near/north of
the International Border will approach the region during the
afternoon. In combination with diurnal orographic ascent, scattered
to eventually widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated. A
narrow belt of moderate mid-level westerlies, centered on the
Trans-Pecos, should support a few supercells in the late afternoon.
Large hail will likely be the primary hazard. Some degree of upscale
growth may occur by evening toward the Rio Grande vicinity, with at
least some severe hail/wind persisting east-southeastward.

...South-central TX to south LA...
It still seems that a loosely-organized MCS may be ongoing in
central TX at 12Z Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous
large-scale pattern, guidance has a fair amount of spread with
subsequent evolution through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may occur by midday along the residual outflow,
along with downstream development towards a quasi-stationary front
into LA. Deep-layer shear will be modest, especially outside of any
localized enhancement near the remnant MCV. Confidence remains too
low to warrant greater than level 1-MRGL risk probabilities at this
time, but isolated severe wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern Ontario to the
OH/TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough
will gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising
mid-level heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where
stronger deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears
quite limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the
southern periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more westerly with
moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies. Despite weak
buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected. The
strongest of these may attain low-end supercell structure from
western to south-central MT during the late afternoon to early
evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale ascent with
approach of the shortwave trough should support scattered late
afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to a couple brief
supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe wind/hail
events may occur in both regimes.

..Guyer.. 06/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100543
SWODY2
SPC AC 100541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...TEXAS...AND ACROSS IOWA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Wednesday, modest westerly flow aloft will stretch from CA into
the northern Plains, and from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, a weak upper wave will remain nearly stationary over the
southern Plains providing cool temperatures aloft. An embedded wave
will move quickly across southern ID and into the northern High
Plains into Thursday morning, and will interact with a developing
lee trough during the afternoon. Low-level moisture will be
plentiful across the central and southern Plains, and especially
from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast with 70s F dewpoints. A moist
air mass will also exist across the Carolinas, supporting daytime
instability but well south of the upper trough.

...Northern Rockies...
Storms will develop relatively early in the day from eastern OR
across ID as the shortwave trough moves over the area. Scattered
storms will develop and spread quickly eastward into parts of WY and
MT, with areas of strong outflow expected. Scattered severe gusts
may occur. Overall deep-layer shear appears most favorable from
southern ID into western WY, resulting in a few cells capable of
hail as well as strong gusts.

...Central to southern TX...
Moderate instability will develop over much of central into eastern
and southern TX with a moist surface air mass beneath seasonably
cool midlevel temperatures. Little in the way of a focus will exist
except for possible antecedent outflows from early storms over North
TX. However, lack of any capping and diurnal considerations will
lead to scattered storms, with some clusters producing locally
strong wind or isolated hail during the day.

...IA...northern IL and parts of surrounding states...
A stationary front will exist across this region, with strong
heating aiding destabilization. The glancing upper trough may aid
lift, and forecast soundings show light but veering winds with
height and marginal deep-layer shear. Scattered storms producing
hail appear most probable during the late afternoon and evening,
progressing eastward out of IA and into IL/WI and perhaps southern
Lake MI late.

..Jewell.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101748
SWODY2
SPC AC 101746

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA...THE UPPER MIDWEST/CORN BELT...AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains, the Upper
Midwest/Corn Belt, as well as Texas to western Louisiana.

...Central to southern Texas...
Ahead of a weak mid-level trough, moderate instability should
develop over much of central into eastern/southern Texas with a
moist surface air mass beneath seasonably cool mid-level
temperatures. However, specifics are complicated by the potential of
lingering early-day convection and outflows. Some guidance would
suggest that convection/MCV-related enhancement to the flow field
may occur and linger much of the day, a scenario in which a Slight
Risk could be warranted into the Day 1 time frame pending corridors
of more certain destabilization across central/east Texas. This flow enhancement could influence the potential for supercells and
possibly a tornado risk within a moist environment. Scattered
storms, including some clusters, can otherwise be expected with hail
and wind possible.

...Upper Midwest/Corn Belt...
A west/east-oriented stationary front will exist across this region,
with strong heating aiding moderate to locally strong
destabilization along and south of the boundary. The glancing
influence of a shortwave trough may contribute to storm development
as the boundary layer otherwise destabilizes Wednesday afternoon.
Effective shear of 30-35 kt should generally exist near the front,
potentially allowing for a few supercells and more prevalent
multicells. Scattered storms producing hail/damaging wind appear
most probable during the late afternoon and evening, progressing
eastward out of Iowa toward the Illinois/Wisconsin border vicinity.
A relatively narrow/confined Slight Risk could ultimately be
warranted in the Day 1 time frame.

...Northern Rockies to Northern High Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early in the day from
eastern Oregon across Idaho as a shortwave trough moves over the
region. Scattered storms will develop and spread quickly eastward
into parts of Wyoming and Montana, with areas of strong outflow
expected. Scattered severe gusts may occur. Overall deep-layer shear
appears most favorable from southern Idaho into western Wyoming,
resulting in a few cells capable of hail as well as strong wind
gusts. Additional severe storm development is expected by Wednesday
late afternoon/early evening into the northern High Plains including
near/east of the Big Horns.

..Guyer.. 06/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110558
SWODY2
SPC AC 110557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...
The stronger flow aloft will remain over northern portions of the
CONUS on Thursday, with a low-amplitude wave moving across the
northern Plains. South of there, a weak upper low will move from TX
toward the lower to middle MS Valley late.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch roughly from SD eastward to
the Mid Atlantic, with a large area of mid to upper 60s F across
much of the plains and Midwest. A weak is forecast over southwest
NE, with an inverted trough extending northeastward toward southern
MN.

...Northern Plains...
Early day rain/thunderstorms will shift north across eastern SD and
southern MN during the day in a zone of warm advection, with air
mass recovery to the southwest across NE and western KS/eastern CO.
Strong heating and southeast surface winds will yield storms moving
off the Front Range, with locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Robust convection will form within the surface trough over NE,
extending into southeast SD/western IA/southwest MN as well, with
more of a variety of storms expected. Both damaging winds and hail
are expected. Shear will be marginal but an MCS cannot be ruled out
overnight.

...Much of southern/central/eastern TX...
Substantial moisture and instability will again develop with 70s F
dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft. Clusters of storms are likely
to be ongoing roughly along or east of I-35 much of the day, and
areas of strong wind gusts may occur. West of there, stronger
heating will occur over southwest TX. Shear will be weak but
multicellular convection capable of marginal hail or localized
downbursts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111736
SWODY2
SPC AC 111734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO FROM TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected Thursday
across parts of the central to northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A deeper
upstream shortwave trough will begin to influence the Pacific
Northwest. A weak mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift
north-northeastward across eastern portions of the southern Plains.


At the surface, a lee cyclone may gradually deepen during the day
across the central High Plains, while a weak frontal wave is
forecast to develop and move eastward from southern SD into
southwest MN.

...Eastern SD/southern MN into northeast NE/northern IA...
Elevated convection and possibly a MCV/remnant MCS may move across
parts of the Dakotas into MN during the morning. In the wake of the
morning convection, an outflow-influenced surface front is forecast
to move northward across northern NE/IA into parts of eastern SD and
southern MN. While deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, a
localized zone of conditional supercell potential could eventually
evolve near and just north of the front, where increasing low-level
moisture will support moderate buoyancy and surface winds will be
favorably backed.

If any supercells can develop within this regime, then hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would all be possible. With
the primary shortwave trough generally forecast to dampen with time
and be displaced somewhat north of the more favorable environment,
coverage of diurnal supercell development (if any) is uncertain.
Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
in this scenario increases. Otherwise, storm coverage may generally
increase north of the front from late afternoon into the evening
within a low-level warm-advection regime, with some clustering
possible as convection spreads across southern MN Thursday night.

...Parts of the central/northern High Plains...
High-based convection is expected to develop Thursday afternoon
across parts of northeast CO/eastern WY. Deep-layer flow will be
rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and sufficient
buoyancy could support localized hail and strong to severe gusts
with initial development. With time, an outflow-driven cluster could
spread into the NE Panhandle, with potentially a somewhat greater
concentration of strong/severe gusts.

...Southern/central/east TX into the ArkLaMiss region...
Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of central/east TX. Rich low-level moisture, moderate
buoyancy, and modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow could support at
least an isolated threat for a tornado, locally damaging gusts, and
perhaps some hail with the morning convection.

Storm evolution during the day is uncertain, but in general, an arc
of convection may spread northeastward toward the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss
vicinities during the afternoon, in conjunction with the primary mid/upper-level low or any MCVs that develop. Locally damaging wind
and possibly a tornado could accompany the storms within this
regime.

Some redevelopment is also possible along the trailing outflow
during the afternoon and evening into south-central TX, with a
threat of localized hail and wind-damage.

...Western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate destabilization is expected Thursday afternoon from parts
of western/central PA into the northern Mid Atlantic, along and
south of a cold front. This region will be on the southern periphery
of stronger west-northwesterly flow aloft, and with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection. However, with large-scale
ascent generally displaced well to the north and very weak
convergence expected along the front, potential for sustained deep
convection currently appears limited. Severe probabilities may be
needed if a stronger signal for robust development emerges with
time.

..Dean.. 06/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120519
SWODY2
SPC AC 120518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest during the
day and into the northern Rockies late, with an upper ridge building
from northern Mexico into AZ/NM. Meanwhile, modest westerly flow
aloft will exist over the Northeast as a weak disturbance moves
across AR/MO and into the mid MS/Lower OH Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will exist across the Great Basin with
a southwest flow regime south of the upper trough, with a lee trough
along the length of the High Plains. Increasing boundary layer
theta-e will spread into the High Plains via southeast winds,
resulting in an elongated area of scattered severe storm potential
during the afternoon and evening.

...MT into the central High Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of west-central/southwest MT,
and extending into WY CO and NM, as well as western NE/KS/TX-OK
Panhandles, resulting in steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, southeast
surface winds will bring moisture northwestward into the High
Plains, with a large area of moderate instability developing.

Storms are expected to form by 21Z over western MT, with additional
storms into eastern WY/northeast CO. These will likely produce hail
and areas of damaging wind. Other isolated storms are likely all the
way south into eastern NM/western TX.

Elsewhere, strong instability and ample moisture may result in
scattered strong storms over much of MO, AR, LA, MS and vicinity,
though the likelihood of ongoing early storms and outflows results
in low predictability at this time. Locally strong gusts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171704
SWODY2
SPC AC 171703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...INDIANA...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected on Wednesday from parts of
southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan.
Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse from MO/IA to the Southern Great
Lakes on Wednesday. A surface low will accompany this mid-level
trough and move from eastern Iowa to Michigan. A cold front will
extend from this surface low to the southern Great Plains. Severe
thunderstorms are expected along much of this frontal zone on
Wednesday.

...Midwest into the Southern Great Lakes...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front
across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday morning. Some cloudcover
is likely across the region, but only minimal heating (mid 70s)
appears necessary for convective initiation. Therefore, expect
relatively early storm development along and ahead of a cold front
north of I-70 during the late morning to mid-day timeframe. Moderate instability and modest shear (35 to 40 knots) will promote storm
organization. Very weak (~5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates amid a
moist profile, should mostly limit hail production. Therefore,
damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat. However, some
tornado threat will also exist as forecast soundings show strong
low-level curvature and significant streamwise vorticity in the
lowest 1km. There is some uncertainty with storm mode, but a tornado
threat would exist with either a broken line or a QLCS as it moves
across northern Indiana into southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.

...Ozarks into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
There is uncertainty across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
regarding the strength of morning convection across the region. It
is unclear whether this morning convection will reintensify and move east/northeast with a renewed threat, or if additional development
will occur during the afternoon and be the primary threat. However,
given the lack of strong low-level jet support, expect the overnight
MCS to be weakening by morning with the additional afternoon
development solution preferred. Moderate to potentially strong
instability is forecast by mid-afternoon with modest (25-30 knots)
of shear. This will support mostly multicell clusters with a threat
for damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Plains...
Strong heating is forecast south of the boundary across the southern
Plains. This will result in moderate to potentially strong
instability amid 25-30 knots of shear. Very warm 700mb temperatures
(12C) will likely limit overall convective coverage. However,
forecast soundings show a mostly uncapped environment where a
surface boundary should be present. Therefore, at least isolated
storms are possible. Modest shear and very steep lapse rates will
support some hail/wind threat from any storms which can develop
within this region.

...Northern Plains...
Despite generally limited low-level moisture, relatively steep lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft may support a pocket of moderate destabilization across parts of far northeast MT and ND into
northern MN Wednesday afternoon. Wind profiles will be relatively
weak and unidirectional, but a couple stronger cells or clusters
will be possible during the afternoon and evening, with localized
potential for hail and strong to severe gusts.

...Mid Atlantic...
Strong heating, combined with low 70s dewpoints will result in
moderate to strong instability in the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. 12Z
guidance has trended weaker with a belt of mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon/evening. However, sufficient
mid-level flow is still forecast for modest shear and some multicell
clusters. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these
scattered storms.

..Bentley.. 06/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from
the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on
Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the
day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New
England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast.

An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of
northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified
mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the
western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern
Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this
trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High
Plains.

...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of
the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the
day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as
northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization
farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast.

The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from
PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will
be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing
segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the
strongest storms in this area.

Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas,
deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but
still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of
producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in
areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs.

Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but
the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively
large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing
isolated strong/damaging gusts.

...Southwest MT and vicinity...
Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of
western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the
approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain
limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm
development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong
midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward.

...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving
midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday
from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few
stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later
Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

...Northern Plains...
Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in
moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly
uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a
building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out
through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm
coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a
strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and
localized strong gusts.

..Dean.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the
Great Lakes to the Northeast on Thursday. Mid-level flow will
strengthen east of this trough from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast. A surface low will deepen as it moves from the eastern
Great Lakes to northern Maine during the period. A cold front will
extend southwest from this surface low and will begin from the
eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday morning
and near or off the Atlantic Coast by 12Z Friday.

...New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by
Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially
strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance
for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward
where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow.
A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be
present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear
are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well
behind with the majority of convection developing along a
pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger
frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity
exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time.

South of this area, mid-level flow will not be as strong. Therefore,
more modest shear will limit greater storm organization.
Nonetheless, modest (25 knot) shear will support some multicell
storms capable of damaging wind gusts across North Carolina. Even
weaker shear will be present across the southeast where strong
instability is expected. Storms are not expected to be as organized
here, but the strong instability and moist environment could support
some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Montana...
Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of
western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the
approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain
limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm
development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong
midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward.

...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving
midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday
from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few
stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later
Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

...Northern Plains...
Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in
moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly
uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a
building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out
through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm
coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a
strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and
localized strong gusts.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate to strong buoyancy will develop across the central High
Plains amid strong surface heating. Shear will not be as strong this
far south, but a dryline/surface trough may provide sufficient
forcing for a few high-based storms Thursday afternoon/early
evening.

..Bentley.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across
parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Significant severe
weather is possible.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move across the
Pacific Northwest on Friday, as the attendant large-scale trough
begins to impinge on the central/northern Great Plains. Downstream,
an upper ridge will gradually shift eastward from the southern
Plains toward the lower MS Valley.

A surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains, with
increasing low-level moisture expected near and east of the low and
trailing dryline/surface trough, and also near/north of a warm front
that will extend east/northeast of the low.

...Dakotas into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across much
of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Warming
temperatures aloft will result in substantial capping across the
warm sector, and coverage/location of storms within an otherwise
volatile environment remains very uncertain.

Most guidance suggests a mid/upper-level shortwave will emerge from
the western trough and move across the northern Plains sometime
during the afternoon/evening, though differences remain regarding
the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. This shortwave trough
could aid in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early
evening, primarily near or north of the surface low and warm front.
Veering wind profiles will support supercells, with a conditional
threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and also some
tornado potential if any supercells can become surface-based.

Some increase in storm coverage is expected Friday evening into the
overnight, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
Initial development within this regime could be supercellular, with
potential for upscale growth with time. An intense MCS capable of
producing significant severe gusts could evolve with time. Even if
this does not occur, one or more smaller clusters may develop and
track east-southeastward north of the warm front, with very large
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting a threat of
large to very large hail and severe gusts.

Greater severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases
regarding a sufficient coverage of supercells, and/or development of
an intense MCS.

...Montana...
Low-level easterly flow will support some moistening across much of
MT on Friday, though guidance continues to vary regarding the
magnitude of destabilization during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level
trough will support scattered storm development across western MT
during the afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some
storm organization. Depending on the extent of downstream
destabilization, some threat for strong to potentially severe storms
may spread into parts of central/eastern MT Friday evening. Greater
severe probabilities may be needed into parts of western/central MT
depending on trends regarding destabilization.

...South-central High Plains...
High-based convection may develop Friday afternoon across parts of
CO/NM, within a very warm and well-mixed environment. While this
convection should generally be disorganized, localized severe gusts
could accompany this convection before it subsides during the
evening.

...Lower Great Lakes...
A northwesterly flow regime will become established across the lower
Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. While large-scale ascent will remain
rather nebulous, and destabilization is expected to be rather
modest, elongated hodographs will conditionally support some storm organization. A few strong storms capable of locally gusty winds and
perhaps marginal hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and
evening.

..Dean.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night across
parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Areas of significant
severe wind and hail are expected.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as
a shortwave trough and strong midlevel jet nose into the northern
Rockies. Low pressure will deepen from eastern MT into SD, with a
warm front extending east across northern SD, southern MN and
western WI. Near the warm front, backed winds and a capping
inversion will help maintain a zone of 70s F dewpoints from the
upper MS Valley westward along the SD/ND border. Westerly 850 mb
winds early Friday will back to southerly and increase during the
afternoon and evening, with a broad zone of 40-50 kt developing and
aiding northward heat and moisture transport. Very hot conditions
are expected near the surface low in SD with gusty southwest winds
and drying. Overnight, a cold front associated with the slow-moving
upper trough should push into western Dakotas.

...From eastern MT across the northern Plains and into upper MI...
Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across IA,
southern MN and southwest WI. Lift will exist along and east of a
deep-layer instability gradient, with theta-e advection out of the
southwest with a 50 kt low-level jet. This activity may produce hail
and locally strong gusts Friday morning, with a weakening trend
during the day.

Strong instability will then develop throughout the day as
temperatures warm and moistening occurs along the warm front and in
a plume north of the MT/SD low. Storms are first expected to form
over western/central MT beneath the cooler temperatures aloft, with
a few cells producing strong gusts or marginal hail. However, by 21Z
or so, supercells are expected over eastern MT. Deep-layer shear
will be strong by virtue of easterly low-level winds beneath
increasingly westerlies aloft. Very large hail should be expected as
these cells move into ND, with MUCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg.
Potential may also exist for a severe bow moving across ND and
northwest MN, with significant damaging gusts.

Farther east along the warm front, much of the area will remain
capped during the day. However, the nose of the low-level lapse rate
plume should result in at least a small area of uncapped and very
unstable air mass, perhaps over northeast SD and southeast ND. Here,
a conditional supercell and tornado risk will exist. Should storms
form in this area around or after 00Z, very large hail and tornadoes
appear likely as low-level shear will be maximized here.

Otherwise, additional elevated storms should develop within the warm
advection wing across northern MN, WI, and upper MI. Hail appears
likely as instability will be large, though damaging wind potential
is less certain and will depend on boundary layer temperatures.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200606
SWODY2
SPC AC 200604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NY AND NORTHERN PA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Saturday from the
northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across
the western CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves
from parts ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. A surface low initially
over the northern Plains is forecast to move northeast through the
day, with a secondary surface low expected to develop along a cold
front across the central High Plains during the evening.

Downstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (possibly augmented
by D1/Friday MCS development) is generally forecast to move from the
northern Great Lakes toward New England.

...Great Lakes into the Northeast...
An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the
northern Great Lakes, with other areas of elevated convection
possible farther south across lower MI. While there is some
uncertainty regarding MCS timing, some damaging-wind and hail threat
would accompany this system and any other robust morning convection
before spreading into Ontario.

The convectively augmented shortwave trough associated with the
potential MCS may continue to impinge upon the northeast periphery
of an expanding instability reservoir. Even if the morning MCS
weakens or stays in Canada, strong to potentially severe storms may
spread southward out of Ontario into the lower Great Lakes region,
and/or develop within a low-level warm advection regime. Damaging
winds may be the most common hazard, though low-level shear/SRH may
become sufficient for a localized tornado threat as well. Convection
may continue into late Saturday night with at least an isolated
severe threat.

Farther west, there is some potential for isolated storm development
during the afternoon/evening across the northern Great Lakes
vicinity, within a conditionally favorable environment. However,
with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather nebulous in the
wake of the departing MCS and shortwave trough, confidence is
currently low regarding this scenario.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
While there is some lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of
D1/Friday convection, strong to extreme buoyancy is likely to again
develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, along
and east of the cold front. However, very warm temperatures aloft
and generally weak large-scale ascent may tend to suppress storm
development across much of the strongly unstable warm sector. Strong
heating could support isolated development across parts of
NE/SD/eastern ND into northern MN near the surface low and front,
which would conditionally pose a severe threat given the favorable
parameter space.

Farther northwest, guidance continues to vary regarding the
magnitude of instability from eastern MT/northern WY into the
western Dakotas. Strong morning convection will be possible across
eastern MT, and some redevelopment may occur during the
afternoon/evening, depending on the extent to which the departing MT
shortwave trough can impinge upon favorable instability. A supercell
or two will be possible, with a localized threat for all severe
hazards.

..Dean.. 06/20/2025

$$

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