AWUS01 KWNH 281147
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281145Z - 281700Z

SUMMARY...Approaching complex of thunderstorms producing 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates may produce urbanized areas of flash flooding,
especially around the Houston metro area.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm activity along the Lower Texas
Coast is propagating northeast along a 925mb theta-e gradient that
is oriented SW-NE just south of I-10. The mean 925-850mb wind
field over the western Gulf is out of the SE with these winds
intersecting the nearby surface front located north of I-10 this
morning. This persistent SE flow will overrun the frontal boundary
and continue to act as a trigger for additional thunderstorm
activity. RAP mesoanalysis shows between 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE while PWs are steadily on the rise thanks to a southerly
IVT that is on the order of 300-500 kg/m/s. This allows for PWs to
rise above 1.75" along the Upper Texas Coast this morning with
some isolated areas approaching 2.0". RAP soundings are also
indicating highly saturated soundings and warm cloud layers up to
12,000ft deep in some cases.

The storms may extend farther inland to the north of I-10 as SErly
850mb winds accelerate. However, the concern for rainfall rates

2"/hr is most likely along and south of I-10 where there greatest

instability is present. 06Z HREF probabilistic guidance shows a
bullseye of 30-50% values for 3-hr QPF > 3-hr FFGs near the
Houston metro late morning into early afternoon. As much as 1-3"
of rainfall is anticipated with localized amounts as high as 4"
possible within the highlighted threat region. These rates are
also coming around the morning rush hour within a densely
populated area. Flash flooding is possible this morning,
particularly in the more urbanized communities and poor drainage
areas of Southeast Texas.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5NRw0nW4xsPrE06Kvpf6pVD_kLiLeTds8DJWFRAAR6gjSlmBFVAQrEWL-xdtKsNQ91xn= XZ1k4p-mUqqny4JXeuLgK08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30589540 30569445 30319400 29709393 29209433=20
28639528 28369595 28589633 28949649 29469649=20
29829654 30319632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281827
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-290025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast...Southern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281825Z - 290025Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will pose an isolated concern for flash flooding
this afternoon. This will generally be more of an urban flash
flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar
shows a long-lived cold-topped MCS advancing across the upper TX
coast and the adjacent offshore Gulf waters which will be moving
into southwest LA over the next 1 to 2 hours. There is a rather
well-defined MCV associated with this convection and this energy
is expected to move inland across southern LA going into the
evening hours.

The airmass across southern LA has been destabilizing with MLCAPE
values of 2090 to 3000 J/kg in place, and it is also very moist
with PWs as high as 1.75 to 2 inches. There is some modest shear
with about 30 kts of effective bulk shear, and the combination of
this with the moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer will
favor a likelihood of the aforementioned MCS at least maintaining
itself as it begins to edge into southwest LA. However, with some
additional heating via solar insolation over the next couple of
hours, and with proximity of a seabreeze trough/convergence axis
downstream of it across southern LA, there may actually be some
further development and expansion of convective cells off to the
east that may be rather slow-moving.

HRRR and RRFS hires CAM solutions suggest a threat for rainfall
rates to reach locally as high as 2 inches/hour, with some spotty
storm totals by this evening that could reach up to 3 to 4+
inches. This will tend to be favored more by some of the
slow-moving pulse and multi-cell convection ahead of the MCS
activity, but some of the totals in the northern comma-head region
of the MCS may also potentially reach these levels.

This suggests generally an isolated concern for flash flooding
with much of this threat generally over the more urbanized
locations inclusive of the I-10 corridor of southern LA.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!88-fOp4ULRWyC6-x0sSj90pcaO0ot9A3bzdnhsV5g9cxhzXITNmaOVig1-_HPsqlVy_4= BgUvbd8yNIsJEx5IPj0UMWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30769212 30749081 30568966 30038962 29739047=20
29619146 29489233 29729307 29779395 30059413=20
30469353=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290039
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-290338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290038Z - 290338Z

SUMMARY...Additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to impact southeast LA going through the evening
hours. Areas of urban flash flooding will continue to be possible
and especially around the New Orleans metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
moving across southeast LA with some signs of addition
organization taking place within the last 30 to 45 minutes.
Cooling cloud tops are noted with new clusters of convection, and
this activity is generally moving off to the northeast in the
direction of New Orleans and adjacent suburbia.

All of this convection is connected to the persistence of a
long-lived MCS which is less organized than earlier in the day,
but continues to advance downstream while interacting with a very
moist and moderately unstable airmass pooled across the central
Gulf Coast region. The latest RAP analysis shows a well-defined
instability gradient aligned in a southwest to northeast fashion
across southeast LA, with MLCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2000
J/kg. PWs are quite high and on the order of 1.8 to 2 inches, and
this coupled with the instability will support rainfall rates of
as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger convective
cores.

Given the convective trends, this activity is likely to again
impact areas around New Orleans, and some additional rainfall
amounts here may locally reach 3 to 4 inches given some localized
cell-training concerns before the activity advances off to the
east later this evening. Additional concerns for urban flash
flooding will exist over the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6XtgalyalxJUoHNWANvFIqkg5-qjbVP0K0E88QxZefnM1g09PLMs3U5SnqdHMX3VkvEQ= _MBJB-seXK9GKg7Wa6jl-Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30349025 30338956 29848948 29408997 29229072=20
29619122 30019098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290056
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast CO...Southwest KS...TX/OK
Panhandles and Northwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290055Z - 290555Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to organize and grow upscale this evening. A combination
of cell-mergers and some localized cell-training may lead to
isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows expanding clusters
of cold-topped convection across the central High Plains, with
multiple supercells and some linear-mode activity impacting
southeast CO, southwest KS and down into the TX/OK Panhandles. The
convection is organizing in a moderately unstable and sheared
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and effective
bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50+ kts.

Digging shortwave energy across the central High Plains is
providing divergent flow aloft with DPVA in place, and this
coupled with favorable thermodynamics and a nocturnally enhanced
low-level jet overrunning a warm front should favor additional
expansion and organization of convective clusters over the next
few hours.

The latest experimental WoFS along with multiple 18Z HREF members
suggest cell-merger activity gradually favoring a more progressive
MCS across the region with a southwest to northeast orientation by
late this evening. This MCS evolution, which will involve a
continued concern for some supercell activity, will drop
southeastward across southwest to south-central KS and eventually
well down across northwest OK which will include impacts also
still across the TX/OK Panhandles.

Rainfall rates with the stronger supercells may reach 1.5 to 2
inches/hour, with some storm totals locally of 2 to 4 inches where
a combination of any cell-mergers or brief cell-training occurs.
Aside from the ongoing severe weather hazards, there may be a
sufficient rainfall component to drive an isolated threat for
flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-hLE2nALBPq_k75a7PQkrSTGlnvY3J-WVgNMyqcZNdrtRJza5dl7_i_QeP7bai5bMCC6= fDeVPRWy7ZM4KgnGyLW8KTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38269894 37599771 36119800 35529937 35810157=20
36730327 37610361 37910202 37860098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290726
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...central to east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290723Z - 291150Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible along coastal
portions of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle over the next 3-4 hours.
Efficient rainfall production from training of relatively small
heavy rain cores may result in hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...07Z radar imagery across southeastern LA into MS, AL
and the FL Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with embedded
remnant MCVs and/or mid-level vorticity maxima. A vorticity max
was located just north of Terrebonne Bay with thunderstorms
expanding downstream near the southeastern LA coast and south of
Mobile Bay in the vicinity of composite outflow.

Radar imagery and surface observations indicated one area of
convectively induced outflow aligned from SW to NE from the
western FL Panhandle into the northern Gulf, with SPC mesoanalysis
data showing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE offshore (south of the
composite outflow) and CIN northwest of the CAPE gradient. As the
mid-level vorticity max advances northeastward over the next 3-6
hours, advection of low level moisture is forecast by the RAP to
erode CIN for locations near the coast from southeastern LA into
the western FL Panhandle.

Mean cell motions following the deeper-layer mean wind may support
localized training into the western FL Panhandle as outflow slowly
advances eastward over the next couple of hours. In addition, CIN
eroding back to the west over coastal MS/AL may result in the
development of thunderstorms by 12Z with some minor strengthening
of 850 mb winds from the south, increasing the potential for short
term training. Overlap of these potential heavy rainfall cores
with urban areas or other locations with poor draining could
result in localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-onIruAfz0kgXWF8ijzMkaFARaWx5CvNBZZTMB6RRdhNPFGvFlPa1E_RhTYXf0DvV2QZ= 3wmPgftQxLpbu4y1GsAc9ms$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30898675 30748582 30308521 29758554 29948658=20
29468803 28718932 29139002 30348928 30848799=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291931
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291930Z - 300130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
in coverage over the next few hours. High rainfall rates and
locally slow cell-motions will favor an isolated flash flood
threat which will generally be more urbanized in nature.

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing the
Southeast U.S. will be lifting up across the Southeast coastal
plain going into the evening hours, and this energy interacting
with a moist and unstable airmass pooled across the region will
favor additional expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg with PWs of 1.75+
inches and this coupled with a moderate level of effective bulk
shear (30 to 35+ kts) will favor the overall convective footprint,
and with rainfall rates that may reach as high as 1 to 2+
inches/hour as convection generally grows upscale over the next
few hours.

These heavier rainfall rates are supported by the 12Z HREF
guidance, and the latest CAMS also support a general concern for
there to be some cell-merger activity and localized cell-training.
Some of this will be fostered by proximity of some seabreeze
convergence focusing convection ahead of the main arrival of the
upstream shortwave energy, but the cell-motions will also be
locally rather slow-moving.

Rainfall totals by mid-evening may reach as high as 3 to 5 inches
where the heavier and more focused areas of convection set up.
This coupled with the high rainfall rates in general should tend
to favor at least an isolated threat for flash flooding, which
will primarily be a concern for the more urbanized locations. This
may include the Columbia, SC metropolitan area in particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8REZgccIdKU1rVD2D4II5CRLOpHUXMapNXnGebDxim2QEr9TMRC8GXENGenWg1UCWLMw= rE_lvx7oKUbvPhIPrRRvly4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35997883 35797726 34887709 33897852 33267959=20
32618107 33098227 34108234 35248088=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292156
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Western and Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292155Z - 300355Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms over southeast NM
and southwest TX will continue to generally expand in coverage
over the next few hours. A gradual increase in heavy rainfall
rates is expected as this activity organizes further this evening,
and this may result in isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows expanding convective clusters over southeast NM and
southwest TX as strong diurnal heating and corresponding boundary
layer instability work in tandem with relatively moist low-level
southeast flow and localized orographic ascent. All of this is
occurring south of a cold front dropping southward down across the
southern High Plains which will be an additional catalyst for
convective development over the next several hours.

MLCAPE values over much of central and western TX in particular
are quite elevated with values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, although the
latest RAP analysis does still show some pockets of MLCIN
extending north/south from the Midland vicinity down through Fort
Stockton. Any remaining CIN should gradually erode over the next
couple of hours as additional surface heating occurs, and this
will help set the stage for upstream convection consolidating over
southeast NM and southwest TX to then advance off to the east and
grow upscale into the very unstable/moist airmass pooled
downstream.

Aside from favorable thermodynamics, strong shear parameters are
yielding a number of supercell thunderstorms already, and this
threat will continue in the near-term as the activity consolidates
into a least a broken MCS by this evening. Increasing low-level
convergence along the front and also some nearby right-entrance
region upper jet support will also be key players in driving the
convective threat well through the evening hours for areas farther
east across western and central TX.

REFS/HREF suites of guidance show rather strong support for the
stronger storms to produce rainfall rates well into the 1 to 2
inch/hour range. A combination of slow cell-motions and
cell-merger activity in the early stages of this evening's MCS
development will support some rainfall totals reaching as high as
3 to 4 inches. Both the REFS and HREF suites show elevated 3-hour
FFG exceedance probabilities over portions of central and western
TX this evening, and thus given the setup, isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5si01hQNLYso09PYyybNDkMQUC5-N07Hx6vv7dCK0q22RE8_8YRsAdKgvOOJojIZqJpv= _YVjbvBsuNH30x8CwGF0IC8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33620275 33440119 32859949 31929899 31149913=20
30639985 30650167 31080354 31690432 32660445=20
33330383=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292327
FFGMPD
NCZ000-300225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292325Z - 300225Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across central NC will
continue through the mid to late-evening hours. Areas of flash
flooding are likely and especially around the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.0 inches/hour impacting central
NC as a shortwave impulse lifting up across the Southeast U.S.
coastal plain interacts with a moist and unstable airmass pooled
across the region.

MUCAPE values are still locally on the order of 1000+ J/kg, and
there are multiple small-scale outflow boundaries interacting with
each other that are resulting in pockets of enhanced low-level
convergence for additional convective development. The airmass is
moist with PWs of near 1.5 inches, and this coupled with the
remaining instability should still favor locally enhanced rainfall
rates over the next couple of hours.

There is also proximity of a warm front across central NC along
with some modest right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics
that are helping to further facilitate the sustenance of
convection at least in the near-term. Given the high rainfall
rates and some cell-merger activity, expect some additional spotty
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches before sufficient boundary layer stabilization occurs for the activity to weaken later this evening.

Areas of urban flash flooding are locally already occurring and
will continue through the mid to late-evening hours givenj the
high rainfall rates. This will include a near-term threat to the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area which currently has heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity situated to the west and south of the
city.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-FX86hDq75fB1NIYMvO7VBoHoRkweFmjSRonOK_WAChZDyksQDdiWdFflkW2v2NDK-gY= zXq2F3Zb9MgB6e1RUhOzwS0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36507820 36287765 35847759 35507790 35327857=20
35338008 35838044 36347951=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300434
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300433Z - 300900Z

SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will
remain possible over the next 3-4 hours across west-central TX.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be likely with spotty rates of
2 to 3+ possible through 08Z.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed an elongated MCS over
west-central TX, extending from south of FST to near DYS and COM.
Southeasterly low level flow of 15-25 kt was located from southern
TX into the convective complex with the stronger winds located
closer to the Rio Grande and West TX, dropping off in magnitude
with eastward extent. The source region of the southeasterly winds
contained 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.8 inches of PWAT.
Sufficient shear for organized cells was also present along and
ahead of the MCS via 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data. While a cold front
was dropping southward across the region, a cold pool also appears
to be getting better organized with numerous outflow boundaries
preceding the convective axis, with the MCS following a general
movement toward the SE, into the moist and unstable inflow.

This general movement is expected to continue over the next few
hours with embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, although
occasional embedded higher rates will be possible where brief west
to east training develops. Training will be most likely along the
southwestern flank of the complex where line orientation is more
favored to align with the mean steering flow. The southwestern
edge of the complex, located near the stronger low level flow, may
also favor thunderstorm development just ahead of the advancing
line due to the presence of the Hill Country terrain and a
relative max in uninhibited instability as seen on SPC
mesoanalysis data over the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley.
Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches cannot be ruled out
along with 2-4 inches of additional rainfall through 10 or 11Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_LpUogQ6Na1GcCFPqH-Dhg9munRKPS1caZXVrmsRNKw3kWSPq4O3a-gnM-aWAy0nVp1= PPk98tAFMXArJPTzGsynfwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31979894 31939840 31599793 31199776 30469818=20
29299908 28990028 29480148 29890315 30550324=20
30790266 30850174 31030123 31470050 31700001=20
31939945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
524 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300923Z - 301300Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for
portions of south-central TX until about 13Z with peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to just over 3 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...09Z radar imagery over central to south-central TX
showed a southward advancing convective line in the process of
overtaking nearly a stationary cell over southeastern Kinney
County where MRMS has estimated 3+ inches of rain in an hour. The
cell formed on a surface convergence axis marking the leading edge
of higher surface moisture and within a relative max in MLCAPE
with SPC mesoanalysis data showing 3000 to 3500 J/kg centered over
Kinney and Maverick counties. In the upper levels, flow was noted
to be diffluent on water vapor imagery, likely contributing to
lift over the region.

The convective line is likely to continue advancing south over the
next 2-4 hours, with embedded pockets of intense, efficient
rainfall due to the combination of low level moisture from the
Gulf and tropical moisture in the mid-upper levels emanating from
Tropical Storm Alvin in the eastern Pacific. While the main low
level convergence axis is being overtaken by the convective
line...which should remain progressive...subtle areas of wind
convergence were noted in surface observations between the Edwards
Plateau and the lower/middle TX coast that could initiate new
thunderstorms in advance of the convective line due to the
unstable environment, which could allow for additional, but
localized spots of 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall given slow cell
movement. There is also non-zero potential for west-east short
term training falling atop scattered portions of the state that
have received 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall over the past
week, which may increase the potential for runoff. Overall, the
flash flood threat appears limited in scope, but a localized
concern will linger for another few hours over portions of
south-central TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C2FzRdXN7Ca3wAGL9-G9ZhYwqcMttFKWCVJrQvabXsZTqVaifSkOD-7CWqUD-Rxh1LO= Uv6-t9sYDeDD_9SDVmrWfXQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29689729 28889688 28269864 28089972 28260030=20
28830076 29190085 29380062 29499972=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-302130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0336
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Northern WV...Western MD...Adj Southwest PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301610Z - 302130Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, repeating showers along stationary front
downstream of strong/deep cyclone moving into more sensitive
terrain/soil conditions coinciding with increasingly unstable
environment. Rates may increase to 1.5"/hr and localized totals
up to 2" are possible maintaining flash flooding potential through
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W shows a very compact/symmetric and anomalously
deep (2-3 std. dev from normal) tracking through the central Ohio
River Valley, shifting northward. This is supporting a similarly
deep 1002mb downstream low near southern OH, lifting northeast
along a well defined and sharpening surface frontal zone. This
front extends northeast toward Morgantown before angling along the
Mason-Dixon line. Moist and weakly unstable environment has been
advected on fairly strong upslope component into the central WV
Appalachian Mtns and with strong cyclonic curvature from surface
to 500mb, resulting in very strong moisture flux convergence and
this is over-coming some mid to upper level drying above 700mb in
the strong dry slot across KY/NE TN noted in CIRA LPW, limiting
overall PWat totals to 1.25-1.4". Fairly deep warm cloud layer
with the strong cyclonic curvature is resulting in a fairly
efficient rainfall production with 1"/hr occurring along the
downstream deformation/convergence zone; the breadth is along long
enough for duration to reach about 60-90 minutes resulting in
observations of 1.5-1.75"/3hr becoming more common.=20

These rates/totals are at the threshold of the typically lower FFG
values over the area, but NASA SPoRT LIS soil products suggest
even greater saturation further upslope into central WV and MD
with 0-40cm soil moisture values in the 70% which is clearly well
above normal (85-90th percentiles). Given this scattered/focused
incidents of flash flooding are possible near the cores of
embedded convective elements along and downstream of the deep
cyclone. The coverage/broaden of updraft cores should expand
over the next 3-4hrs into NE WV/W MD and perhaps SW PA. GOES-E
Visible loop shows breaks in cirrus canopy and have been clear
into W MD for most of the morning, slowly increasing instability,
along the northern edge of the dry slot within the TPW gradient,
instability will increase to 750-1000 J/kg toward 18-20z. As
cells deepen/broaden, localized totals up to 2" in 1-2hrs become
possible.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-oTJ6DIbwbu_PNfIY0tGtfGAowEvecYGnsX3oIoCniYw6qjiLUMq2kJj9yBlnnjHvZAc= phL-wEoauNQZeV7IIlhPYNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40057864 39737823 39157854 38827917 38338031=20
37958200 38348251 39088221 39568127 39888052=20
39997956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302144
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-310343-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0337
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 302143Z - 310343Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will become more concentrated heading
through the evening hours across portions of the central
Appalachians while also spreading across the interior of the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Some embedded thunderstorm activity will
favor enhanced rainfall rates, and scattered areas of flash
flooding will become likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a very strong
shortwave trough amplifying across the OH Valley and into the
central Appalachians, with a well-defined comma-head/deformation
zone currently seen crossing through southeast OH, northern WV and
southwest PA.

This is driving a deepening wave of low pressure toward the
Mid-Atlantic states, with recent surface observations showing a
strengthening low center moving east-northeast across far northern
VA to the east of KOKV and northwest of KIAD. A quasi-stationary
front is seen oriented east of this low center across northern
VA/southern MD and through the Delmarva region. The airmass ahead
of this strong shortwave is modestly unstable, with warm-sector
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but there is nose of elevated
instability that is wrapping north of the front and into areas of
eastern WV through northern MD and far southern PA.

Over the next few hours, this elevated axis of instability will
combine with strong DPVA, strengthening isentropic ascent, and a
related corridor of enhanced frontogenetical forcing for an axis
of heavy rainfall to move east out of the central Appalachians and
across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Already radar and satellite
imagery shows an axis of heavy rainfall with embedded strong
thunderstorms impacting northern WV and southwest PA, with this
activity moving east toward the MD/WV Panhandles.

Meanwhile, downstream areas near the stationary front and into the
warm sector will be seeing convection expand in coverage as better
instability and strong shear profiles combine with backing
low-level flow/surface convergence for an organized convective
threat.

The latest hires guidance including the 18Z HREF suite, the HRRR,
and the experimental WoFS runs favors northern WV/southern PA and
northern MD with the heaviest rainfall this evening with a focus
on areas near and to the north of the surface low track. Rainfall
amounts across this region of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible.

However, areas of central and northern VA and into the Delmarva
and eventually southern NJ will see bands of convection capable of
producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, with some spotty 2
to 3+ inch rainfall totals possible here.

Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely this evening, and
this will include a threat to a few metropolitan areas including
Washington, D.C., Baltimore, MD, Harrisburg, PA and Philadelphia,
PA.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C0lO_jdg_3w1ZKljP2pV-cdevq6SnWxhCvmGetT1PpsMfljS_8u3Vm4vzHbyou0kX63= d4tmPAqj5p3M0oErw055jYA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41187479 40607411 39567443 38427606 38137690=20
38077809 38257902 38997961 39258052 39618097=20
40208093 40677977 40717817 40867657=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310401
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-310930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0338
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlantic into southern NY and
southwestern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310357Z - 310930Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to impact the far
northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern NY and southwestern New
England through 09Z, likely resulting in scattered areas of flash
flooding. Embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected along with localized totals of 2 to 3 inches (perhaps up
to 4 inches) through 09 to 10Z.

DISCUSSION...0330Z radar imagery showed the heaviest rainfall
occurring over southeastern PA/northern DE and southwestern NJ,
near an apparent MCV located just northwest of ILG. MLCAPE from
the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis was 500-1000 J/kg and PWs ranged from 1.2
to 1.5 inches, with MRMS indicating hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.
Back to the west, a well-defined mid-level shortwave and comma
head/deformation axis was located over the WV/MD panhandles.

Ongoing heavy rain in the vicinity of the Philadelphia metro is
expected to continue tracking northward over the next few hours
into northern NJ and southern Upstate NY, following the mesoscale
circulation and southerly flow ahead of the potent
shortwave/closed low to the immediate west. Embedded hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches will follow the swath of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms.

Back to the west, there is good short term model agreement with
the track of the shortwave into NJ through 10Z. A well-defined
comma head/deformation axis will swing across the eastern PA/MD
border containing another round of locally heavy rainfall. RAP
forecasts indicate the potential for this axis to overlap with a
small region of weak CAPE, perhaps as high as 500-1000 J/kg. Peak
hourly rainfall with this second round of heavy rain could be near
1 inch.

Total rainfall through 09 or 10Z of 1 to 3 inches is likely with
perhaps embedded totals near 4 inches. These rains will be falling
atop portions of the densely populated urban corridor of I-95 and
into the more sensitive terrain to the west of I-95. Scattered
areas of flash flooding are considered likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KHagQcfLY1syRefIcxRQW2H6qK_WPCmz7M54xCIF9k-Jpz13YRIHjF7cav4KNu_1zM2= 5EfarAk86QFt9Rty2SH1KSI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42447343 41887302 41297316 40557391 39887478=20
39617602 39457686 39277774 39557852 40187849=20
40617793 41277623 41747545 42317440=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310900
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...northern NJ/southern NY into central New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310858Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...The potential for localized flash flooding from an
additional 1-3 inches of rain will exist from northern NJ/southern
NY into central New England through 14Z. Peak hourly rainfall near
1 inch will be possible.

DISCUSSION...08Z surface observations showed an unusually strong
surface low for late May of 987 mb located between Somerset and
Morristown, NJ, tracking toward the northeast. Radar imagery and
surface observations showed areas of heavy rain over northeastern
PA, northern NJ and southern Upstate NY. Within this region, gauge
reported hourly rainfall has generally peaked in the 0.5 to 1.0
inch range, though it has been as high as 1.5 inches over western
Morris County, NJ ending 08Z.

Northern NJ had the highest area MLCAPE via 08Z SPC mesoanalysis
data (up to 500 J/kg), wrapping in from the western Atlantic just
north of the surface low. This region of northern NJ overlapped
with low level convergence to the northwest of the surface to 850
mb low and locally strong upper level divergence/diffluence within
the left-exit region of an upper jet streak off of the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, instability was limited which was
limiting rainfall rates despite the robust forcing for ascent.

Through ~14Z, the surface to 850 mb low will track into western CT
via recent RAP forecasts, which will send the comma
head/deformation axis northwest of the low into the lower Hudson
Valley and western/central New England including the Berkshires
and southern Green Mountains. While instability is forecast to
remain rather low across this region and total PW is expected to
lower a bit from present values, the similar SW to NE track and
orientation of the low level precipitation axis may allow for
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches (locally near 3
inches) through 14Z. However, this area of the Northeast has not
been as wet compared to locations farther south, so any instances
of flash flooding should be isolated in nature.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5xn1N7D_RhtPWVLqMlLFFbCFStl7IShW7aAxF5ESSVuyHtL92ZYxD8mOQvjoZGBfbex= s86cDFa9pvKwwRywtjPZlvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44077228 43947186 43437159 42767165 42187179=20
41717239 41337314 40957378 40637422 40297460=20
40527509 41447500 42227443 43097337 43747283=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311400
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-311905-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Hudson Valley into northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311358Z - 311905Z

SUMMARY...Risk for localized rainfall of two inches in three hours
makes for a potential flash flood concern this morning for the
Hudson Valley and southern Vermont/New Hampshire, then farther
north through this afternoon

DISCUSSION...983mb surface low now over western Mass is quickly
lifting north-northeast. Bands of moderate rain are wrapping and
pivoting around this low back over the central Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Within this area, gauge reported hourly rainfall has
generally peaked in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range with upstream 3hr
rainfall up to 2 inches in the Catskills.

MUCAPE per the 12Z RAP is around 250 J/kg through this zone,
rising to 500 J/kg east of the low in the warmer sector. Low level
convergence to the northwest of the surface low and locally strong
upper level divergence/diffluence within the left-exit region of
an upper jet streak off of the Mid-Atlantic coast is aiding
rainfall rates as well as topographic lift.

Through ~20Z, the surface low will track through northern New
England and produce a rainfall axis of 1 to 3 inches. However,
this area of New England has not been as wet compared to locations
farther south, so any instances of flash flooding should be
isolated in nature.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uI9hGt8gkv54chh2yiQho8xa3MbOqNx7bOAYJ8fxWcPWfKPcwbd5vK4qVkkB8txK5Mz= uWoPVNmpqFBft-zT1uUI3zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45287145 45147089 43167114 42587244 41937347=20
42407432 43747349 45057211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012241
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-020330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0341
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
640 PM EDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...Southern Arizona, far Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012240Z - 020330Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and
lift across southern Arizona/extreme southwest New Mexico this
evening. Rainfall rates of 0.25" to 0.5" per hour are expected.
Through repeated rounds, this could produce more than 1 inch of
rain in some areas, leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon shows
an expansion of intensifying updrafts across the Sonoran Desert,
lifting slowly into southern Arizona. This is collocated with
expanding LightningCast probabilities, suggesting the environment
is beginning to become more thermodynamically favorable for heavy
rainfall. The SPC RAP analysis indicates that PWs have increased
to 1.3 to 1.5 inches, well above the daily max at Yuma, AZ, and
above the 99th percentile in the CIRA ALPW product, coincident
with bubbles of SBCAPE within clearings that have reached 500-1500
J/kg. Into this environment, forcing for ascent is increasing
downstream of a potent upper low noted over the northern Baja
Peninsula, with a mid-level convergence axis arcing to the NW near
Tucson and Phoenix helping to focus development. The overlap of
this impressive forcing into the robust thermodynamics is leading
to rainfall rates that have been measured by MRMS as much as 0.75
inhes just south of the international border.

During the next few hours, the CAMs, including the RRFS, HRRR, 3km
NAM, and UA WRF, all agree in an expansion northward of higher
reflectivity, with additional development recurring over Mexico.
This evolution is supported as forcing for ascent begins to
increase through downstream divergence/height falls as the upper
low pivots northeast from the Baja Peninsula. At the same time,
the low-level southerly flow, while generally weak, will help
advect greater moisture and stronger CAPE northward, additionally
supporting the expansion and intensification of showers and
thunderstorms. Any cells that become most intense could have rain
rates above 1"/hr (10-20% chance) as shown by the HREF and REFS
probabilities, with 15-min rainfall of 0.25 to 0.5 inches possible
(HRRR). Although storm motions will remain generally progressive
on 15-20 kts 0-6km mean winds, some organization and training is
possible, especially along the convergence boundary, leading to
total rainfall that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches in some areas.

Much of AZ and NM have been extremely dry the past 30 days, which
is manifesting as 0-10cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT that is
below the 5th percentile. However, this can actually enhance
runoff initially within any more intense rainfall rates, so the
risk for flash flooding is gradually beginning to increase. While
the more intense convection is expected tonight and overnight,
which will likely necessitate additional MPDs, during the next few
hours at least an isolated risk will exist atop more sensitive
terrain features, burn scars, and urban areas.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5-pFmvoAkHP6Z9hP003DeteToCi5zQCzxnBovjVekDrPpIrOt_5QKRCNsdp8d3JbdZWs= Sgiljf8Vo1hatQgvtO9NIZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33261376 33221299 33181197 33081051 32670894=20
32330859 31830856 31450875 31310904 31190949=20
31141003 31221091 31351162 31481236 32151412=20
32551480 32781474 33171422=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020433
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0342
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central to eastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020430Z - 020900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and intensity across central to eastern AZ over the next
4-5 hours. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour or less with
repeating and training could result in a few instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...GOES West imagery at 04Z showed a closed mid to
upper-level low over the Baja California/Sonora border, about to
move into southwestern AZ with a secondary subtle vorticity max
moving north out of Pima County into south-central AZ. A RAP
estimated 70-80 kt upper level jet streak was located over the
northern Gulf of California, just southeast of the low's center,
with divergent and diffluent flow downstream of the upper jet
streak across a good portion of AZ. MRMS composite reflectivity
and infrared satellite loops over the past 3 hours have shown
waves of more intense rain/thunderstorms moving into southeastern
AZ from Mexico (compared to earlier in the day) along with a
number of embedded transient mesoscale circulations contained
within. Recent gauge reports over eastern Santa Cruz County have
shown between 0.5 and 0.7 inches of rain in an hour. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg south of
the AZ/MX border, but quickly dropping off to less than 500 J/kg
into south-central and southeastern AZ.

Over the next few hours, rounds of heavy rain will likely continue
to move into southeastern and eastern AZ following the favorable
upper level forcing ahead of the closed low along with instability
and anomalous precipitable water values (1.45 inches at the TUS
00Z sounding...well above the SPC sounding page's climatological
max). Southerly to south-southwesterly flow at 700 mb (20-30 kt)
along with deeper layer steering flow of the same orientation will
support repeating and training cores of heavy rain at times,
allowing for 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour or perhaps as short as
30 minutes.

Over central to south-central AZ, as the closed low center edges
closer, RAP forecasts show MLCAPE increasing into the 250-750 J/kg
range given an increase in low level moisture and cooling
mid-level temperatures. This may allow for the development of a
few thunderstorms by 08-09Z given DPVA, capable of hourly rainfall
near 1 inch.

Across both central to eastern AZ, a few areas of flash flooding
may develop given overlap with areas of sensitive terrain, remnant
burn scars, and/or urban centers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EFel7LqznqhVkm4NuMyIYXyG178WNCUCf7aBI8uJi3sZOq_sWXz0sR5OaCRtZ-GSjRA= 0eo2ys1j2nvLqm4tn0DwWzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35251122 34770987 33760912 32020894 31040934=20
31091098 31431181 32121264 33981269 35091234=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020850
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-021400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...southern NV, eastern CA, northwestern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020848Z - 021400Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will set up for portions
of western AZ, southern NV and far eastern CA over the next 4-5
hours. Slow moving cells will be capable of producing a quick 0.5
to perhaps 2 inches of rain.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES West infrared satellite and
lightning imagery showed developing widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over western AZ. At 0830Z, a mid-level vorticity max
was observed on GOES West water vapor imagery over central Mohave
County, rotating WNW around a closed low centered to the south.
While weak, CAPE has been on the rise as the closed low and its
cold mid-level center, advance closer to the region with 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE from eastern CA
into western AZ with slightly higher values of MUCAPE extending
northward into southern NV. While a good portion of the area was
estimated to be capped, CIN is weakening and surface dewpoints
have been on the rise (5-10 F since 00Z) with 10-20 kt of
southerly 850 mb flow up the Colorado Valley. Given northwest AZ's
proximity to the closed low center, 850-300 mb mean layer winds
are only 5-10 kt, indicative of the potential for very slow cell
motions. Over the past 6-9 hours, layered PW imagery has shown a
notable increase in moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, aiding in
the recent expansion of instability.

As convective inhibition continues to erode, additional cells are
expected to form with the vorticity max and ahead of the closed
upper low center in and around the tri-state region. The
environment is supportive of small scale heavy rain cores which
could produce roughly 0.5 inches of rain in 15-30 minutes, along
with a spotty inch or two of accumulation. Overnight WoFS has been
trending upward with rainfall potential and the 08Z cycle showed
40-50 percent probabilities for 1+ inches over southern NV and
30-40 percent to the east over central Coconino County. 90th
percentile data (reasonable worst case scenario) indicated 2.3
inches of rain through 14Z. The expectation of a few heavy
rainfall cores around the region could result in isolated areas
flash flooding in low-lying or other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_laZi_FIacw5gB4EY1ALtFs72ksvXT_t3FUXWrzMROLgHPLRRKcZ1NL1KyviEN8Ki6A7= vkqYrYJUfQ5v_MrkHqWVVR4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36671353 36481218 36131158 35501134 34281194=20
33771300 33761401 34041464 34501509 35291540=20
36061532 36601463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central west coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021023Z - 021500Z

Summary...Localized/urban flash flooding will be possible along
the west coast of FL, from roughly Tampa Bay to Naples through
about 15Z. Spotty 3 to 5+ inch totals will be possible, with much
of that potentially falling within a 1 to 2 hour window.

Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery at 10Z
showed a west-east axis of thunderstorms extending from the
eastern Gulf through the central FL Peninsula, located out ahead
of a mid-level shortwave approaching from the central Gulf Coast.
This region of FL was located within a low level confluent axis
along a stationary front that extended from just south of Cape
Canaveral to just south of Tampa Bay. While convergent 925-850 mb
winds were fairly weak (up to ~10 kt), the environment over the
central Peninsula contained 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5 to 1.8
inches of PW and estimated wet bulb zero heights just over 12 kft
(via SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data), capable of efficient rainfall
production. Several rain gauge reports near the coast between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor have shown rainfall rates near 1
inch in 15 minutes with 1-2 inch totals reported as of 10Z.

Mean westerly flow and low dewpoint depressions at the surface
will promote occasional instances of west-east training with
minimal outflow generation over the next few hours, until daytime
heating begins to alter the boundary layer and the continued
approach of the upstream shortwave affects low level wind
direction/speed, interfering with the convergence axis. Until that
happens (~14 to 15Z), an isolated threat for flash flooding will
occur within the urban corridor of the western Peninsula from
roughly Tampa Bay to Naples, where localized potential for 3-5
inches of rain will exist.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hz0-YlbLdfbahyxJgLXOv4vyeuV6pL1Bg31DQCoDTWvUFXcDIYagTXF5GZGkdhT7du0= WRn-CYqNOvtlJWPXutGdfcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27798182 27628129 27308135 27058175 26438155=20
26208202 26548254 27228294 27578280 27728248=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021644
FFGMPD
FLZ000-022242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021642Z - 022242Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is expected
to develop through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening. These storms will be
slow-moving, producing enough heavy rainfall in urbanized areas of
southeastern Florida to promote flash flooding in a few areas.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite depicts deepening convective
cores along the I-95 corridor from Fort Lauderdale to Homestead,
FL currently. Additional storms were observed just south of the
Florida Keys and near the Fort Myers area. These cells were
developing in a strongly unstable environment (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
with abundant moisture (2 inch PW values) supporting efficient
rain rates as storms continue to strengthen/mature. Additionally,
weak/modest wind fields aloft were contributing to slow and
erratic storm motions across the region.

As cells mature/deepen, a combination of mergers and erratic
motions will eventually allow for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to
develop in a few spots across the urban south Florida I-95
corridor. This corridor is sensitive to heavy rainfall and a few
areas of urban flash flooding are expected. Rainfall totals
exceeding 2 inches are also likely in much of the discussion area
through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening, with spotty/isolated flash
flooding expected elsewhere across the discussion area.

Over time, mid-level flow may increase some ahead of an advancing
mid-level wave over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. While the
resultant increase in shear could aid in a gradual increase in
storm organization initially across southwestern Florida and
vicinity, this evolution will likely not reduce the flash flood
risk across the southern part of the state.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VfOqdIXtFjAB9aF7tNj0WStYog0ToZ6NgEfAz1JR6cRBnWtTwpL9n6iVm9_pPwvqov-= 8_o8-ZOS3zWtgmqtWWHeH7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27418138 27268040 26967991 25907998 24998041=20
24548153 24618205 25148164 25638162 26298199=20
26688210 26988209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022145
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to Northeast NEB...Far Northeast
CO...Northwest IA...Far Southeast SD...Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022145Z - 030330Z

SUMMARY...Very strong, initially very slow moving thunderstorms
with potential of upstream redevelopment/repeating may result in
localized clusters of 3-4" totals and likely to result in
incidents of flash flooding if outside of the Sand Hills.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows a narrow channel of
developing cumulus along and south of a well defined cold front
extending from a surface low in western MN near AQP, southward
toward the IA/MN/SDak state line before angling back southwest
across the eastern side of the Nebraska Sand Hills before
intersecting with another developing low in far northeast CO.=20
This cu field denotes fairly impressive conditionally unstable
ribbon of enhanced theta-E air with fairly rich low to mid-level
moisture. MLCAPEs have risen to 2500-3000 J/kg from the low in MN
toward southwest NEB, with sfc Tds pooled from mid-50s to low 60s.
CIRA LPW and instability field also notes strong southerly LLJ
and moisture/instability axis intersecting the frontal zone ahead
of the CO low across Western KS to help feed thunderstorms into a
convective complex later this evening.=20=20

A strong, compact shortwave along the southeast edge of the larger
broader synoptic scale trof that is dominant over the Northern
High Plains, triggered stronger severe thunderstorms and a
maturing cluster, small convective complex over west-central MN.=20
Forward propagation of the complex will limit overall rainfall
totals with cells, but in exiting the shortwave further stretches
the 500-1000mb thickness ridge along the frontal zone. Solid
moisture convergence/confluence along the front will increase and
moisture convergence will start breaking out individual cells from
northeast to southwest along the instability axis, as noted with a
stronger initial cell entering NW IA at this time. The strong
updrafts given surface to 850mb winds of 15-20kts and moisture of
1.5"/hr will allow for efficient rainfall production along with
some hail initially.

As the thickness ridge further elongates, propagation vectors will
continue to be less than 5-10kts and within a col of weakening
mid-level flow...cell motions may be very slow initially,
especially further southwest into northeast and central NEB. As
such, cells may start to cluster and broaden in width, with rates
of 1.5-2"/hr likely becoming more numerous between 23-01z.=20
Stronger more orthogonal intersection upstream may result in
greater efficiency there, but will eventually forward propagate
eastward with better than normal steering flow orientation to
result in some repeating. As such, localized pockets of enhanced
rainfall totals along and south of the front may reach 3-4" with
perhaps a very isolated 5" total occurring with best training/cell
mergers.

Hourly FFG along the southern and eastern edges of the Sand Hills
and across into SW MN range from 1.5"/hr to 2-2.5"/3hrs. These
values are likely to be exceeded in these local smaller
cluster/pockets from 00-03z, with HREF neighborhood probability
over 40-50% for 3" and even some 10-15% for 5". While most areas
in the MPD area of concern will not receive these totals, it is
likely to see a few incidents of flash flooding occurring,
especially outside of the Sand Hills proper.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6I7nw_l2mITelr4EzVcLD1q_KhNMIiqnbtX44vkQrh1b9DalNoWo0IkTgQ8gmzuzEesv= LjAkGbybdgN-h2oioXjx_Mk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45109515 45019441 44419418 43549489 42189605=20
41249743 40779851 40200038 40270231 41080248=20
41650102 42109934 43149700 44179609 44939584=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030102
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030100Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms starting to orient favorably
for some repeating and potential for localized totals over 1" in
short duration. Given hard ground conditions, incident(s) of
flash flooding are considered possible.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis shows clusters of thunderstorms that
developed along a fairly solid stationary front further north
across eastern NV into central UT have developed potent enough
cold pools/outflow boundaries. These boundaries along with
forward propagation into a pool of deeper moisture and
conditionally unstable environment into the Colorado River Valley
have resulted in expanding and intensifying convective activity.=20
GOES-W Visible imagery shows increasingly numerous overshooting
tops entering Clark county, NV through Mohave county in NW AZ.=20
Here MLCAPEs of 750-1000 J/kg remain in the fading solar input
with low to mid 50s Tds across much of the lower Valley floors.=20
Trapped 700mb moisture within western mid-level trof has
relatively high 80% RH and total PWat values to 1.25" where
terrain is lower. While there will remain sub-cloud evaporative
loss, rates of 1"/hr are probable; though with forward/southward
speed totals of .5" seem more common with the cores of the
downdrafts.

Hard ground conditions will allow for heavy runoff and minor
flooding concerns; however, convective latent heat feed-back has
helped to develop a solid 850-700mb circulation in proximity to
the sagged western portion of the front in northern Lincoln
county. Low level wind is starting to respond and strengthen from
10kts toward 15-20kts with increased cyclonic curvature. As as
result, flanking line convection into southern Nye county is
orienting more NW to SE, parallel to the steering flow. Inflow
from the southwest off the deserts may be a bit drier, but should
be more orthogonal to help maintain some convective development.=20
While still uncertain, there is some trend analysis that suggests
some spots of training in proximity is possible as the overall
cluster drops south then southeast. A spot or two of 1"-1.25"
totals would certainly result in localized flash flooding
concerns. Overall, the cluster/complex should track through the
pool of instability for the next few hours into far southern NV/NW
AZ, to maintain a low confidence but possible widely scattered
focused incident or two of flash flooding this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4WZurNb_hhtbASxzD4OcMXzWketQ-BWwekjYKyNI8jO_OuSgzKynVykZrPXmBTf1IDBP= hj9ixno456iD3bqCCf5u07U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37441652 37421487 36951398 36641253 35721215=20
34901250 34961394 35401473 36081546 36891650=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030425
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030840-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0348
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...eastern NE into western IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030424Z - 030840Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible over the
central Plains, especially over portions of eastern NE during the
next couple of hours. Between roughly 07-08Z, the potential for
flash flooding will begin to shift into western IA, though
rainfall rates may be lowering by that point in time.

Discussion...The merging of a line of thunderstorms moving south
along a cold front and an eastward/northeastward advancing outflow
boundary from western KS into southern NE resulted in a burst of
very cold cloud tops over NE between 02-03Z, with 10.3 micron
imagery from GOES East showing cloud tops near -80 C, and MRMS
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches. Cloud tops have warmed a bit
since then but strong to severe thunderstorms remained with
locally heavy rain continuing over south-central NE. To the south,
surface dewpoints ahead of the outflow were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s over east-central KS and this low level moisture was
surging northward toward southeastern NE in advance of the outflow.

The well-defined cold front to the north will continue to advance
southeastward over the next few hours, eventually meeting with the
increasing low level moisture across the Missouri River Valley.
The advection of low level moisture into the region will result in
increasing instability, with recent RAP forecasts indicating
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE into southeastern NE over the next couple of
hours, along with decreasing convective inhibition.

The main concern for additional flash flooding will come from a
convectively induced vortex located northwest of GRI at 04Z, as it
follows ENE through eastern NE and eventually reaches western IA.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected, although locally higher
values will be possible, along with an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain on a localized basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6YK7JtEzNaZDlTTvDD3IWSRd2h8fvTW3ZLLgcdKdUP8CnH3ZNd-QB3Jc5OY_HvfcetCK= -Xvt5TYbLYMCDbdjxfbgSZI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43329482 42589467 41719526 40879628 40549783=20
40719906 40580032 40800050 41380035 41759974=20
42499769 43159641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030526
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...north-central to northeastern OK into
southeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030524Z - 030930Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain from north-central and
northeastern OK into southeastern KS may result in an isolated
spot or two of flash flooding over the next 3-4 hours. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible at times.

Discussion...05Z radar imagery and surface observations showed an
outflow boundary that arced from just west of EMP, southward into
OK, then southwestward to near SWO and toward I-40. The portion
over KS has been advancing eastward at 30-40 kt but the southern
portion over OK has been slower to progress east, resulting in a
SW to NE orientation of the boundary over northern OK, similar to
the mean steering flow.

A broken axis of thunderstorms was following the outflow with
roughly 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place just ahead of it. The
outflow boundary is expected to continue advancing east and
southeast through KS/OK over the next few hours while a ~40 kt low
level jet at 850 mb, oriented from the SSW, overruns the outflow
allowing for continued thunderstorm developing and periods of
short term SW to NE training. Within axes of training, rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible and localized totals near 3
inches through 09Z may occur over portions of
north-central/northeastern OK into southeastern KS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cfO9KxznptzIK-L1mYgjKlnwJQBOleGL00Z4GDOx4SRkjDcFMrwFnDuuoKGPXFOyJ-q= X-NP4Kh0OXnNEglKE_aUwxA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37539459 36819470 36199549 35799668 35839758=20
36199774 36539728 37529581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031350Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely become more
concentrated over the next several hours across portions of
southern and eastern KS into west-central MO. Backbuilding and
locally training convection will favor the potential for enhanced
rainfall totals and thus concerns for scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
corridor of heavy showers and thunderstorms with cold convective
tops impacting areas of eastern KS, with the activity beginning to
move into areas of west-central MO. The activity is being
sustained by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts out ahead
of a cold front, and with the pooling of a favorably moist and
unstable airmass. The ejection of a mid-level trough with
favorably divergent flow aloft over the region is also a key
player with the ongoing convective threat.

PWs of near 1.75 inches are in place which are about 2 standard
deviations above normal, and an instability axis is nosed up
across eastern KS with MUCAPE values of as high as 1500 to 2000
J/kg. Relatively strong low-level moisture convergence is noted,
and the early-morning visible satellite imagery shows an expanding
CU/TCU field down to the southwest of the current activity
involving areas of south-central to southeast KS.

Over the next few hours, there is likely to be the renewed
development and expansion of convection across eastern KS and into
west-central MO, with activity also likely developing down to the
southwest into areas of south-central to southeast KS. This is
consistent with the latest HRRR forecasts and also the 06Z HREF
guidance which strongly support rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, with an environment conducive for backbuilding and
locally training convective cells.

Some rainfall totals through early this afternoon may reach 2 to 4
inches with isolated heavier amounts possible where cell-training
is maximized. The persistence of these rains may foster some
scattered areas of flash flooding which will include a threat for
some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wy9XlcHr2u5PWNjH8QduHIXBb-7hRYkgLTpTPbO1QDZgMgNDRhpvVbfbdR9AB8iPmpE= 4PrsHEsp_6YfexdvoHSGp1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39589338 38789297 38159397 37259619 36959759=20
37249852 38189800 39339536=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031837
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Central and Northern OK...Southern and Eastern
KS...Central to Northeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031835Z - 040035Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with additional areas of
flash flooding will continue into the evening hours across
southern/eastern KS and into western/northern MO. Gradually this
threat will settle down into central and northern OK. Given the
high rainfall rates and localized persistence of the stronger
storms, areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding
are expected.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of south-central to northeast KS along with some
adjacent areas of northwest MO. The activity continues to be aided
by the persistence of a convergent moist/unstable low-level jet of
30 to 40+ kts out ahead of a cold front. Relatively stronger
mid-level forcing associated with an ejecting shortwave trough is
interacting with MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg and
PWs of 1.75+ inches, and this has been resulting in a substantial
amount of organization and persistence of convection over the last
few hours.

Already there has been locally considerable flash flooding
impacting areas around Wichita and Emporia, and some rainfall
totals locally since mid-morning of 5 to 7+ inches.

Additional expansion of showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the next few hours which will extend northeastward into more
areas of western and northern MO to the southeast of a cold front.
However, there will also be the development and organization of
convection deep into the unstable warm sector involving central
and northern OK where recent visible satellite trends indicate an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field. LightningCast data shows
convection is imminent across these areas.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms heading into the evening
hours will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some
additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 6+ inches will be
possible which is consistent with the latest HREF/REFS guidance
and the HRRR solutions.

Areas of flash flooding will continue, with a general increase in
the coverage of flash flooding expected over the next several
hours. Multiple major metropolitan areas will continue to be at
risk for seeing significant and life-threatening flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IAtjdWX4eJsMKO7JkRhRYe1Kgdu9_47k1LAU0g1-gm8g9kvqyBJXZ4n_4lCdSVSdXic= 4dq1D4q7T7gkDd4t8jcjQ5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40379254 40109173 39399143 38459215 37309439=20
35519679 35339838 36099884 37629783 38919648=20
39789501 40169397=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031841
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0352
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern CA...Southern NV...Northwest
AZ...Far Southwest UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031840Z - 040040Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon across the broader Southwest U.S. which
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Given the
high rainfall rate potential, isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...An anomalously moist airmass through the vertical
column has pooled across large areas of the Southwest U.S. with PW
anomalies that are near or at record levels for the date. This
coupled with strong diurnal heating/surface-based instability by
later this afternoon should result in a favorable environment for
showers and thunderstorms to initiate and gradually expand in
coverage.

An upper-level low is seen in WV satellite imagery dropping
southeastward offshore of southern CA, and this is yielding very
steep mid-level lapse rates along with divergent flow aloft around
its northeast flank which will further facilitate convective
development over the next several hours.

The steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with the boundary layer
heating should facilitate SBCAPE values reaching as high as 1000
to 2000 J/kg, with the greater CAPE fields likely focusing over
northwest AZ and far southern NV. A combination of favorable
thermodynamics along with localized orographics/terrain-induced
circulations and even some modest shear over the region should
yield scattered pulse to multi-cell thunderstorms which will be
capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, with
even some sub-hourly rates of 1 inch in 20 to 30 minutes possible.

A look at the latest HREF/REFS guidance suggests some potential
for 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals where the storms become locally
anchored near some of the terrain, and where any potential
cell-merger activity occurs. This will allow for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding to be possible. Some of the area
burn scars will be at particular risk for impacts, along with dry
washes and local slot canyon areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bu_NYWF_fLMhfOJA9CCn2XRs97auo3iXgIJTXDFbIFwfiDH-HM3I2oZzWSQNmU3ggdK= pyQgv8KSZVa2R4-ubwYDFrE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...HNX...LOX...MTR...PSR...REV...SGX...
SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37651221 36921048 35121012 34211138 34271332=20
34171475 33541551 32731573 32611686 33501754=20
33991821 34441930 34672001 34892039 35482086=20
35792094 36042033 35641929 35731865 36291858=20
37401903 37631862 37011736 37561486=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040014
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0353
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern California, southern Nevada, northern
Arizona, far southern Utah, northwestern/north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040013Z - 040613Z

Summary...Mature thunderstorms continue to move slowly within an
axis from near Los Angeles and the Transverse Ranges eastward to
northwestern New Mexico. Spots of 0.5-1.25 inch/hr rain rates are
exceeding FFG thresholds in local areas and causing excessive
runoff/flood impacts. These impacts should continue on a
scattered basis through at least 06Z/10p PDT.

Discussion...Abundant surface heating, steep lapse rates aloft,
and appreciable moisture content has enabled development of
several clusters of slow moving thunderstorms across the
discussion area this afternoon. The heaviest downpours have been
concentrated across portions of the San Bernardino Mountains
eastward to near Las Vegas and adjacent areas of northwestern
Arizona, where PW values at or above an inch were noted via
mesoanalyses. These cells have prompted occasional flash flood
impacts over the last 3-6 hours as well. Models/CAMs suggest that
these cells will be primarily diurnally driven and persist through
just after sunset before weakening and decreasing in coverage.=20
Flash flood potential is expected to continue during that time.

Farther east, a more isolated threat for flash flooding exists
across northern New Mexico. Here, moisture/PW values are
comparatively lower (around 0.65 inch) and faster flow aloft has
enabled slightly faster storm speeds, limiting the amount of
rainfall in any one spot. Nevertheless, areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain
rates should continue for another 3-5 hours or so (through 05Z/8p
MDT) and may occur over burn scars and other sensitive terrain
across the region. Eventually, nocturnal surface cooling should
aid in decreasing storm intensity/coverage especially after dark.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9pyQVCwIArXpmvlTKWuxw3nrVrHw98niw9jpr7VX2hVazc9PZ_0dw4cyfQ2-P9MlRf= hz85YqqZmNzk0pbL6Hkb9gY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...HNX...LOX...PSR...REV...SGX...SLC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37871738 37811490 37311357 36791114 36900779=20
36750563 36540468 35940491 35220636 34680802=20
34330965 34551282 34031506 33041581 32631695=20
33231751 33911848 34451950 34611902 35051831=20
36361852 37371883=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040037
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0354
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma through north and
central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040036Z - 040636Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should continue with
scattered thunderstorm activity migrating southeastward across the
discussion area through the night (06Z/1am CDT). Occasional
instances of 2+ inch/hr rain rates are likely where cell mergers
and training are observed.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have evolved into a series of clusters/loosely organized supercellular structures and linear
segments extending from near Tulsa south-southwestward through Ada
and southeast of Wichita Falls. Storms across northeastern
Oklahoma have grown upscale and become quite progressive, with
rain rates limited to around 1 inch/hr. Isolated flash flooding
is possible in sensitive/low-lying areas in this regime.

Farther southwest, clusters have exhibited less linear structure
and have occasionally merged/backbuilt - prolonging heavy rain
rates in local areas. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS near/southwest of Ada and also south of Wichita
Falls. These rain rates were occurring in areas of 2-3.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds - highest with southward and southeastward extent.=20
With already spotty/isolated coverage of the heavier rain rates
moving into areas of slightly higher FFG, current thinking is that
the ongoing flash flood risk should remain isolated and localized
to sensitive/urban areas through the evening. CAMs/high-res
guidance depict a potential focus for backbuilding/heavier rain
rates across portions of north and west-central Texas through the
overnight hours in tandem with a southward-moving synoptic front
over the southern High Plains. The risk of 2+ inch/hr rain rates
should persist through the night in this regime - potentially
impacting areas near Dallas/Fort Worth, Waco, and perhaps Austin
later tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5XCku1DX0nLi8_CAqYvy7nZKF7QUmsJGQneAkIeh1Gbn5dkU2JLKqvI7ucQ9XG5RCWd9= fHf6U5wJBtMI-FKopVUS8qs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36579567 36289476 34829450 33319449 31859549=20
31009631 30619754 30619894 31270027 32409953=20
33519873 34589772 35479682 36369610=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040104
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040703-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Missouri, far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040103Z - 040703Z

Summary...A couple of progressive linear convective complexes will
sweep through the region this evening, prompting occasional areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates on an isolated basis. These rates
could result in a few areas of flash flooding - especially in
typical sensitive/low-lying areas of the Missouri Ozarks.

Discussion...Earlier convection across Kansas/northern Missouri
has evolved into a couple of extensive linear segments - one
extending from near Quincy, IL to near Sedalia, MO that intersects
with a separate linear MCS across west-central Missouri through
Joplin and Tulsa, OK. These linear complexes have become much
more progressive compared to their earlier evolution, with 25-35
kt storm motions generally limiting hourly rain rates to 1-1.5
inch/hr in spots. Despite the downward trend in rain rates, some
opportunity remains for training/repeating cells across central
Missouri (near the intersection of the two linear complexes
around/south of the Columbia area) and across far northeastern
Oklahoma (where 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates are more prevalent east
of Bartlesville). The overall regime appears to be shifting
eastward toward the Missouri Ozarks and vicinity, with terrain
supporting occasional flash flood potential in low/sensitive
spots. The downstream environment contains 1.5-1.9 inch PW values
and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE - both supportive of efficient rain rates
(occasionally exceeding 1 inch/hr) as storms move east.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ByYPXRRSnfu_c27lD6bbhETAsPNodNoEP8VX-dTTFh0SNM7ZVnOGQk4D1V_s2HoWVhK= NmLH0YAw_jT6EEoROqKgEMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39699213 39499106 39019056 38299066 37149094=20
36359235 35839359 35929478 36479513 37209457=20
38359388 39249298=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040607
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-041030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0356
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southern/desert CA into western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040605Z - 041030Z

Summary...Localized high rainfall rates may continue to produce a
few areas of flash flooding from the desert regions of southern CA
into portions of western AZ through 10Z. Peak rainfall rates of
0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes will be possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery and GOES West infrared
satellite imagery through 0545Z showed scattered thunderstorms
continued from the desert regions of southern CA into the
southwestern edge of the Colorado Plateau through western AZ.
While cloud tops were warming overall, some new cell development
was noted near an outflow boundary pressing south through
southeastern San Bernardino and eastern Riverside counties along
with a few new cells showing up in Imperial County. Meanwhile in
AZ, showers/thunderstorms have been slowly edging south atop a
southward sagging outflow boundary which extended from northern
Gila County, westward into La Paz County. Many of these cells in
AZ have lost their vigor, but locally heavy rain continued in a
couple of spots. Although instability was lowering, SPC
mesoanalysis data showed these cells were occurring within 500 to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE and anomalous PWs of 1 to 1.5 inches.

A 700-500 mb upper low was centered just west of the northern Baja
Peninsula and is forecast to slowly track eastward along with a
northward extending trough. At least an isolated flash flood
threat will remain with development along outflow, and while cells
should be short-lived, there will be potential for peak rainfall
rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 15-30 minutes. Despite nocturnal cooling
of the boundary layer, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
continue to support weak CAPE values overnight and increasing low
level moisture with some return low level flow from the northern
Gulf of California...out ahead of the 700-500 mb low...may support
localized increases in CAPE over the next few hours, especially
across portions of western AZ. Therefore, for the next 4-5 hours,
a localized flash flood threat is expected to continue for
portions of southeastern CA into western AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VJNNSMSqljyTgarX8u1q_W29dpmOZNhfLO1S200l26cdhDAad1dK_tCfbsxw9RRcU1j= 56oBGnVgPs-IQ8MrEya7C_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35441214 35371122 35081078 34651074 34161111=20
34001147 33561273 33161377 32661434 32541507=20
32491587 32611633 33021654 33601658 34081605=20
34611531 35041382=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040803
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...TX Hill Country to I-35 corridor

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040800Z - 041330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 13Z across portions of central TX. Heavy
rainfall with potential for 1-3 inches in an hour but also
sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes will be possible.
These rates may impact the sensitive terrain of the Hill Country
where locally heavy rain has fallen over the past week and
possibly the I-35 corridor from near Temple to San Antonio.

DISCUSSION...0730Z radar imagery showed a largely linear axis of
thunderstorms extending WSW from McLennan County to southern
McCulloch County. These storms were occurring along an outflow
boundary and cold front advancing southward with some recent
development toward the west, just south of San Angelo. The line
has been mostly progressive over the past 3 hours but MRMS and
gauge reports have indicated peak rainfall rates of 1.0 to 2.5
inches in an hour and 1.0 to 1.5 inches in 15 minutes (vicinity of
Goldthwaite and San Saba).

Anomalous moisture of 1.5 to 2.0+ inches along with 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE were helping to fuel the high rates beneath a diffluent
flow pattern in the upper levels. The cold front and outflow will
both continue to sag southward through about 13Z across the Hill
Country, at which point some slowing or stalling is forecast by
short term guidance. The line of thunderstorms is expected to
follow the boundary southward with some continued development
toward the west as convective inhibition weakens due to low level
moisture transport from the south. Meanwhile, possible weakening
of rainfall intensity may occur to the east near I-35, given
better orthogonal low level flow into the boundary will be in
place for points west over the Hill Country and some recent
warming of cloud tops has been observed over east-central TX.
Locally high rainfall rates will continue at least an isolated
flash flood threat across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor
through 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_anYHDsS_zWnwCd75Le8XZQNmkUKgJbsylSlSYD08du-gQZOld_acV83etyERhLecoEN= PZDUVFU67xosaM71UvC0Q6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31519757 31159714 30579712 29809753 29189851=20
29129969 29240052 29830105 30600119 31170085=20
31129957 31199896 31409840=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 040948
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southwestern MO into adjacent portions of OK/AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040945Z - 041345Z

SUMMARY...Localized SW to NE training may result in an isolated
area or two of flash flooding in southwestern MO and perhaps
adjacent portions of OK/AR through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 0930Z showed a SW to NE axis of
showers extending from Ottawa County in northeastern OK to Jasper
County in southwestern MO. Local Wunderground observations just
south of Joplin have indicated about 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes
and generally peak totals of 1 to 2 inches. The storms were
developing along a quasi-stationary front ahead of a subtle
vorticity max over northeastern OK, as observed on 6.9 micron
imagery from GOES East.

09Z SPC mesoanalysis showed that the environment over southwestern
MO had weak instability (< 500 J/kg MLCAPE) but contained high
moisture with PWs between 1.7 and 1.8 inches. SSW low level flow
and mean steering flow into the frontal boundary will continue to
promote localized areas of SW to NE training over the next 1-3
hours, but instability will remain weak. Additional development of
showers could occur to the south, ahead of a surface low near MKO.
SW to NE training but with a gradual eastward translation to the
heavy rainfall axis is expected. This may result in localized
flash flooding, especially if overlap occurs with recent heavy
rain that fell near and north of I-44.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ZU4yjHmnAfhNyUvRu1yO5x-zQC9YgGCrcvda0cJfHdEWYUB4x42iqGiZdObBKV-X5ho= n9E4UDqaA_I9hEhRHNN3vGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38369286 38129220 37489249 36099389 35669447=20
35669478 36189526 36839504 37849372=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 041201
FFGMPD
FLZ000-041800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0359
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southwestern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041200Z - 041800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity offshore, and should start moving ashore shortly.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local amounts to 5" are possible,
which would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low is noted in water vapor imagery in
the northeast Gulf, south of Apalachicola. An area of scattered
thunderstorms have formed offshore southwest FL which is slowly
broadening and intensifying, while an outflow from overnight
convection is approaching the convection's southeastern flank. As
of this discussion's sending, hourly rain estimates are in the
0.5-1" range to the northwest of Captiva. The synoptic surface
wind field is light out to the east to southeast, while flow at
850 hPa is south to southwest at 20-25 kts per VAD wind profiles
and RAP forecasts, bringing effective bulk shear to 25 kts.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2". ML CAPE values have been
slowly rising along the immediate coast per SPC mesoanalyses,
where skies are mostly clear as of this discussion's sending. For
the moment, CIN is present inland. Offshore ML CAPE values are
1000-1500 J/kg.

Some additional increase in instability is expected before the
showers and thunderstorms move inland. Should the convection
continue increasing in coverage, which is implied by a modest
increase in the Galvez-Davison index to 30 in the 15-18z time
frame and recent radar trends, this would force the instability
gradient to remain rather coastal. Given the effective bulk
shear, some level of convective organization is anticipated, which
should help with increasing hourly rain amounts if convection gets
anchored to a coastal instability gradient, short periods of cell
training, or cell collisions/mergers occur. The mesoscale
guidance has isolated to widely scattered signals for 3-5" totals
between Sarasota and Naples. Given the ingredients present,
hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible,
which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6DINYzn1E7d2wePx8FxKTNkWYNzrdSHt4yIEfi96RSP9R_Cu5DWebzj9vbSO_6kh70_2= _2U72Y7eygf1e3oz7HegB_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028238 27048159 26028146 25848180 26258210=20
27838286=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041446
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of coastal GA & SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041500Z - 042100Z

Summary...Narrow convective bands which can train for 1-2 hours
are anticipated to increase in frequency late this morning into
late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to issues in urban
areas.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a pair of upper level
circulations across east-central GA and south of Apalachicola FL.=20
Their combined influence has brought a deep moisture plume into
the region, with precipitable water values above 2". Inflow at
850 hPa is ~20 kts per VAD wind profiles. Effective bulk shear is
near 25 kts and ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg are available near the
upstream of the GA and southern SC coasts. Thus far this morning,
a few very narrow, training bands of showers have led to hourly
amounts of 1.5-2.5" and local amounts as high as 4".

The expectation is for some increase in coverage of narrow rain
bands with time as a surface trough sharpens and a surface low
tries to develop near the GA coast this afternoon, which should
amp up the 850 hPa inflow and effective bulk shear a little more.=20
Slight increases in the Galvez-Davison index with time imply
somewhat greater convective coverage with time as well. The
mesoscale guidance, while it has a signal for heavy rainfall, may
be seeming to underplay amounts per their relatively coarse (when
compared to radar imagery) resolution. Hourly amounts to 2.5" and
local totals to 4" remain possible where narrow convective bands
can persist for 1-2 hours. A complicating factor in areas such as
Charleston SC would be the tidal cycle, with high tide expected at
2010z, which would potentially enhance any existing heavy rainfall
issues. Issues are expected to be mainly constrained to urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-r5aQ_FAUKQZLTPJ-XZ0VXHitvMNr3fmdEouGD4sVH9UNcLOwScoJI1nQhHzVwJpimDJ= YGl8I53R6HZR9Q1kH5UDLmM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33247996 33087914 32128061 31738110 31858142=20
32368137 32898076=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041612
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-042211-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0361
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041611Z - 042211Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms within an environment with
increasing instability near the upper level trough could lead to
hourly amounts to 1.5" with local totals to 3", which would be
problematic in slot canyons, dry washes/arroyos, and burn scars.

Discussion...An upper-level trough moving through portions of the
Great Basin is leading to a moisture plume which stretches from
northern AZ into southwest CO, with a 700 hPa trough fairly
coincident to the upper level feature. To the south, a low-level
circulation is apparent in GOES-18 Veggie Band imagery near the
Lower Colorado River Valley which is also helping to maintain
anomalously high moisture across the region. Precipitable water
values range from 0.6" at higher elevations to 1.2" in lower
elevations. Surface-based/ML/MU CAPE is showing an upward swing
with daytime heating, albeit much earlier than usual, with MU CAPE
of 500-1500 J/kg. Satellite imagery shows CIN eroding across
eastern AZ, western NM, southern UT, and southwest CO. Effective
bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists from southern and eastern AZ
northeastward, which is leading to some convective organization
with activity approaching the Four Corners.

The 12z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ jump upward and broaden across
the area over the next couple hours. The MU CAPE currently
available when combined with daytime heating should translate
fairly soon into 1000-2000 J/kg ML CAPE. Given the moisture
available, hourly rain amounts to 1.5" with local totals up to 3"
appear to be the high bar. This degree of rainfall would be of
most concern in urban areas, slot canyons, dry washes/arroyos, and
near area burn scars. Rainfall-related issues appear to be
isolated to widely scattered through 22z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hUjXV6T7Tuj7wYw0mqzfSME-c5-ZFcyxIl_MtNs7i19r3gkfV86d3t9x9uHL0HeVNWS= SRfJsAeAJ9x-iWST9hj1-lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38950817 35740681 33320984 33131151 34891536=20
36491585 37921248=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041648
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-042247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...in and near southern Missouri & southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041647Z - 042247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop in
and near southern Missouri. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local amounts to 5" are possible, which would be problematic.=20
Scattered areas of flash flooding are anticipated over partially saturated/compromised soils.

Discussion...A wavy cold front stretches across the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and southern Plains on the southeast flank of a longwave
trough. Renewed shower and thunderstorm development has recently
occurred across southwest MO, while other activity moves from
southeast MO into southwest IL. Precipitable water values are
~1.8", ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 25-35
kts. The degree of effective bulk shear combined with fairly
unidirectional flow with height out of the southwest have
occasionally organized linear southwest-northeast bands near the
front.

The front is expected to slow down with time, which potentially
increases the heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. The expectation
is for increased convective coverage with time, though the
mesoscale guidance isn't completely united in their vision as to
where it would occur. The best overlap for heavy rainfall is
across southern MO, where instability is greatest and where dew
points are closest to 70F. However, places farther northeast in
IL are experiencing an ongoing round of convection that could
receive a second round in several hours. Northwest portions of
the discussion area have received 1-4" of rain over the past 24
hours, partially saturating soils. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
and local totals up to 5" are possible where cells train, merge,
or an random mesocyclone develops.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Y1VkfMQq3O3CbaTXrcJ9Eieyg52X0u5yduzCcAtYQYynDA2sVamT7MGRAcce77ChwPk= Z3eYWcoepQDhKwVcFz6upcg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40388960 39398851 38128917 36509119 36019421=20
36519485 37979269=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042102
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southern/east-central Missouri into
central/eastern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042101Z - 050201Z

Summary...A focused band of training convection has developed from
east of Springfield, MO to near St. Louis over the past couple
hours. The scenario will allow for localized spots of 2-5 inch
rainfall totals to occur from east-central Missouri into central
Illinois - raising concerns for a locally significant flash flood
event especially near St. Louis Metro through 00Z.

Discussion...Recent radar/observations depict an increase of
convective intensity and coverage along a stalled synoptic front
extending from near Springfield, MO to St. Louis to Champaign, IL.
The increase in convective coverage is attributed to persistent
convergence along the front and abundant sunshine/destabilization
out ahead of the front, which has allowed for 2500 J/kg SBCAPE to
develop amid 1.9 inch PW values near the storms.=20

Of particular concern is the lack of indication that these storms
will begin to propagate off their current axis of rainfall for at
least the next couple hours or so. This will enable persistent
training of convection to occur and support areas of 2-5 inch
rainfall totals over the next 2-4 hours across portions of
south-central to east-central Missouri. These heavy rain rates
should pose a risk for locally significant urban flash flooding
near St. Louis through 00Z/7p CDT.

The bands of training convection are also expected to migrate east-northeastward across portions of Illinois and western Indiana
through 02Z or so. Flash flooding is a distinct possibility in
those areas as well given the propensity for storms to train in
the moist/buoyant pre-convective environment.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GFEC3zljXejqIs8tyW9rMiIBtA4bP_pTbzVrwmSG3YQQiBOf1KePKdCZt3MdBsHr0Pk= 751znBRoI-WzPc-dkPvJ96A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41118667 40318634 39158671 38318827 36829154=20
37039259 37869264 39099072 40398935 41038776=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042157
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-050355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0364
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners
region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042155Z - 050355Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential will continue
through peak heating hours this evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to move slowly
across the discussion area, with localized areas of somewhat
higher concentration of activity located across southern/eastern
Utah and central New Mexico near Albuquerque. The storms remain
in a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall (exceeding
an inch at times) due to their slow movement, 0.75-1 inch PW
values, and steep mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km in most
areas). Of particular concern through the next 6 hours are
sensitive areas/slot canyons across southern Utah and burn scars
across north-central New Mexico. Slightly faster steering flow
aloft was noted over central New Mexico, which has resulted in
somewhat faster storm speeds although spots of 1 inch/hr rates
remain evident there per MRMS.

Most of the storms across the discussion area expected to remain
strongly tied to the diurnal cycle, with weakening/decreasing
coverage expected to commence after 03Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63rg36PGn9gN54gQ1CbJ6YB1MbqTGfTvE8e42i45_1JV-9hrj91rZMRiM9Ppz7n7ppnN= Y8oEnyxJC0vXyN_860pJTsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...RSA...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40070796 39630621 38360527 35510525 34530566=20
33820760 33961124 34761382 36351616 37201646=20
37961631 38621554 38881407 38841281 39521089=20
39980964=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050500
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 AM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL..Southwest to Central
IND...Adj KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050500Z - 051030Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective efficiency with clusters.=20
Favorable orientation may allow for multiple repeating rounds
resulting in widely scattered incidents of 2.5-3.5" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV along with RADAR mosaic denotes well
defined shortwave/MCV crossing SE IL into west-central IND, with
excellent anticyclonic outflow channeling to maintain MCV strength
and therefore low level inflow. WV suite and RAP analysis also
shows another subtle upstream shortwave, weak feature that can be
seen in 850mb vorticity analysis near the MO Bootheel in Northern
AR, moving even slower northeast. 850mb flow analysis shows
return moisture channel across the TN Valley becoming
convergence/confluent through the Tri-Rivers area of W KY
intersecting with the frontal zone and outflow boundaries from
initial convection. VWP shows 25-35kts of 925-850mb flow within
the q-axis with 1.75-2" total PWATs stretched out across central
IND back to the 850mb inflection in SE MO. This advection/q-axis
has some remaining uncapped/weakly capped 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
that can be utilized at those random intersections of deep layer
moisture convergence near the boundaries. Additionally, 300-500mb
flow is increasingly diffluent along th southeast side of the
clustering providing solid ascent/outflow to maintain favorable
ascent through the overnight period.=20

As such, recent 10.3um EIR and RADAR mosaic shows increasing
convective activity mainly along the upwind flanking line of the
stronger outflow boundary from the original MCV across central IND
back into S IL, as well as the best convergence in SE MO into S
IL. Overall, moisture flux and vigor suggests increasing rainfall
efficiency toward 1.5-2"/hr likely to evolve over the next few
hours, particularly in the best unstable environment from MO to SW
IND. Each cluster has solid potential for 1-2.5" totals...but
deep layer steering between waves is flattening to support
clusters repeating through the overnight period and may result in
localized pockets up to 3.5" though most streaks/clusters of
enhanced totals will be in the 2-3" range.

Hydrologically, grounds are fairly average in soil moisture and
therefor should up-take modest rainfall well with good
infiltration. However, the rates near 2" are in the vicinity of
the hourly FFG values, as well as the 3hr values ranging from
2-3". This provides enough confidence for a few scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding over the next 6hrs and
matches up well with 00z HREF probability of 3"/6hr probability
ranging up to 45% across potions of the highlighted area of
concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4MK0OthzKFSTxx5XSaA6doI5tt8VJCuq_hiGxGDZ9KcKMPv6F54RrYSxZNRHURIjxHFU= TpJUNkijFIhNP0gOLOVwzfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39928640 39478601 38658610 38038669 37408752=20
37188787 36988828 36708882 36699006 36589049=20
36739102 37089099 37549037 38268901 38568846=20
39158772 39858698=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051618
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-052217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC and Northern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051617Z - 052217Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible this
afternoon across portions of central to eastern North Carolina and
northern South Carolina.

Discussion...A surface low pressure is helping drive a heavy
rainfall risk this afternoon across portions of central and
eastern NC into northern SC. Close to and just north of the low
center we are seeing very efficient warm rain processes in play,
with PWs around 2", high freezing levels and a deeply saturated
profile. This is allowing for hourly rainfall around 2" despite
the less than impressive radar/satellite depiction. The low is
expected to take more of an easterly turn this afternoon, and
would expect this area of efficient rainfall to push east along
with it through portions of central NC. The rainfall intensity
will likely vary, with both upticks and downticks through the
afternoon near the low center...but the environment will remain
similar, and thus upwards of 2" an hour rainfall will remain
possible at times.

To the east and southeast of the low we are seeing increasing
instability with daytime heating. This should support the
expansion of some deeper convection over this corridor. These
cells may tend to move quicker than the shallower convection near
the low...but will still be capable of short duration heavy rates
given the high PW airmass in place. Plus, certainly possible the
warm front extending east from the low acts as a focus for at
least some brief training.

Overall, expecting an isolated to scattered flash flood risk to
exist over the next several hours across portions of central to
eastern NC. The HRRR has been struggling with the convective
evolution this morning. Based on recent observational trends, it
appears like the experimental RRFS and REFS may be handling this a
bit better with regards to rainfall placement and magnitudes.
Through 21z REFS neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3" are
40-70%, with 5" exceedance probabilities peaking at 10-20%. The
probabilities of 2" in an hour increase to 40-70% early this
afternoon as well. Given the placement of the warm front and
instability axis, not expecting the rainfall axis to get much
farther north than it currently is, and some backbuilding to the
south (near the warm front) is possible as well.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4poGHp11DDA8Kh7HwH5czAuh5H0xJAMJcLQzZjETqU8tPpQk2ZAw641K4FPRnBIecs56= yyjXBARe-FaQe0YwcFbSh-M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36057932 35977850 35617813 35047760 34497778=20
34157841 34167887 34387977 34668041 35008059=20
35468061 35808045 35978003=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051742
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-052341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV, Northwest AZ, Southwest UT and
Southeast CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051741Z - 052341Z

Summary...Increasing convection will lead to an isolated flash
flood risk this afternoon across portions of the Southwest.

Discussion...The focus for isolated flash flooding this afternoon
appears to be across portions of southern NV, northwest AZ, far
southwest UT and southeast CA. It is here where we are seeing the
best overlap of instability and moisture today. Surface based CAPE
is already over 1000 j/kg in spots, and forecast to increase
towards 1500-2000 j/kg with mostly sunny skies helping
destabilization. This is notably higher than the instability 24
hours ago. PWs over this region generally range from 0.75" to
1.25" and are a tad higher than 24 hours ago as well. This
combination of increased instability and PWs should support
intense rainfall rates in convection. While not widespread,
probabilities from the HREF and REFS indicate that localized 1"+
an hour rainfall is probable. Deep layer mean flow is only 5-15
kts out of the west, allowing for just some slow eastward cell
movements today. Cells should stay tied to terrain features long
enough to produce locally heavy rainfall, and when they do move
off the terrain brief cell mergers could locally enhance rainfall
magnitudes.

While widespread impacts are not anticipated, localized flash
flooding is probable in this setup. Based on current radar and
satellite trends the greatest convective coverage will probably be
over northwest AZ...but there is a strong signal for isolated to
scattered development shortly over southern NV as well. In fact
neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3 hr FFG get as high as
60-80% in the experimental 06z REFS over southern NV. The risk
over adjacent areas of CA is more conditional, but isolated cells
may try to develop and/or propagate into this area later this
afternoon. Southwest UT is a bit more uncertain, with ongoing
showers impacting destabilization. But still a chance we get some
stronger redevelopment over this corridor this afternoon as well.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_s372gQ_PLTmhwGVAl9VJI15IQotqoJBrrfYh0Bq3qZFXnv9SGFYi8eEn8F2iffMfo0D= z0CceIhCx0tBYfUu_Lg0IXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38381393 38301304 38071214 37351183 36421153=20
35801157 35301190 34991289 34891410 34951476=20
34651566 34611576 34581620 34971654 35481647=20
36181616 36691595 37291577 37771522 38161460=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051842
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-052241-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0369
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051841Z - 052241Z

Summary...A localized flash flood risk continues across portions
of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma.

Discussion...Elevated training convection has resulted in a
localized flash flood risk across portions of the TX Panhandle
early this afternoon. This activity has not been well handled by
any of the high res model guidance. This lowers confidence on
convective evolution over the next few hours. Surface based
instability and PWs are on the increase downstream of the current
convective cluster, suggesting some threat that this activity
maintains into the afternoon hours. Some more discrete cell
development within the inflow of the cluster also suggests the
potential for upscale growth into the afternoon hours. Both
supercell and upwind propagation vectors are off to the southeast,
generally aligned with the orientation of the cluster. Thus the
combination of cell mergers and training suggests that isolated
flash flooding could continue to be a concern along the track of
this convection.

Again confidence is lower than normal on the convective details
over the next few hours. However recent IR satellite trends show
enough persistence of the colder cloud tops to suggest some
continued longevity of this convective cluster. Given the training
orientation and possible cell mergers, a localized flash flood
risk likely continues.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4dzGSl7CkGToASdWWOiRDTdNH_uEzkC-Fw7_No5E-qSYmfcBLy-JBRLMGU08aKrPyD22= 8iO93_aEybq3fSYOP4K0EiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36110058 35969957 35949789 35479782 34729842=20
34419929 34480017 34890067 35620098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-060140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051940Z - 060140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and generally grow upscale over the next few
hours. Given relatively moist antecedent conditions and heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, some isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows a shortwave
trough traversing the OH Valley which is interacting with a
quasi-stationary front draped southwest to northeast from southern
IN through northern OH, far northwest PA and southwest NY. A wave
of low pressure is noted in surface observations near the IN/OH
border, and a combination of relatively stronger low-level
moisture convergence ahead of this wave along with modest DPVA
should favor a general increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours.

A moist and unstable boundary layer will support a favorable
thermodynamic environment for convection to attain at least some
loose organization with multi-cell convective clusters likely to
evolve. MLCAPE values are locally near 1000+ J/kg with PWs of 1.2
to 1.5 inches in place, with the better moisture overall situated
over western PA, central and southern OH and down into northern KY
where the nose of weak low-level southwest flow is noted ahead of
the aforementioned front.

Rainfall rates should be capable of reaching up to as much as 1.5
inches/hour based on the latest hires model guidance including the
12Z HREF guidance and the 06Z REFS. Some briefing training of
cells ahead of the aforementioned wave of low pressure will
support the potential for some localized 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals going through this evening. The antecedent conditions are
relatively moist, and with some urban sensitivities, the potential
will exist for isolated areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92X5OdkD_LpeeDkSWUalgu-PqA03B-JHfHN9Zh4SBtSt38ie3CK6EjJ5vJLaAwO43Mg_= aeXqNuI-RhijdLsh58rlivM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42977618 42487514 41667559 40907790 39867899=20
39278045 39048250 39208377 39688514 40438558=20
41168451 41158203 41998019 42757809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-060213-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM into Southwest and West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052013Z - 060213Z

SUMMARY...Development and expansion of supercell thunderstorms
going into the evening hours will likely tend to be slow-moving
and will be capable of producing locally enhanced rainfall totals.
Generally isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible with
this thunderstorm activity this evening.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery
shows a well-defined surface boundary/weak front situated across
portions of eastern NM out through west-central TX. A substantial
amount of instability is pooling along this boundary, and recent
satellite imagery is showing the development of an extensive CU
field across southwest to west-central TX and back into southeast
NM. Convection has already initiated over the Davis Mountains, and
additional development and expansion of convection is expected
more broadly across the region going into the evening hours.

Modest shortwave energy shearing out across the southern High
Plains along with a belt of stronger mid-level flow/shear will
combine with strong instability for supercell thunderstorms to
develop over the next several hours, with discreet cells
eventually merging/consolidating for some MCS evolution by later
this evening. MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg are in place with
as much as 50+ kts of effective bulk shear across southeast NM and
parts of southwest TX east of the dryline, and some additional
surface heating over the next 1 to 2 hours will help to further
destabilize the region along and south of the aforementioned
surface boundary.

Aside from severe hazards associated with the supercells, rainfall
rates will be capable of reaching 2+ inches/hour, and with the
slow cell-motions, and potential for cell-mergers in time, some
rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible. Consequently,
this will support a threat for at least isolated areas of flash
flooding heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Dlu7-n_CyUWXdWj45gNQdRYSuf0V3GpyXGBtxKhanVZocRmPjSY-3cI09jt_yQ-CSbr= iA1SwJKLkYWLJJgFusTcwlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34560326 34190189 34010023 33139963 32199989=20
31340123 30450193 29630289 29670389 30270453=20
30920443 32200431 33290457 34220427=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052132
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panahandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052130Z - 060330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be organizing and
expanding in coverage over the next several hours, with eventual
MCS development likely over the southern High Plains. Isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as the storms
grow upscale and produce heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E IR/WV suite shows the
shearing out of mid-level shortwave energy across the central and
southern High Plains in general, and this energy coupled with
localized orographics and proximity of a front should favor the
expansion of convection over the next several hours. Already the
most recent visible satellite and radar imagery shows
thunderstorms initiating over to the east of the Front Range and
also farther off to the southeast over southeast CO and far
southwest KS where there is an area of low pressure helping to
drive stronger low-level moisture convergence.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is seen in the
latest RAP analysis along with effective bulk shear values of 30
to 50 kts. With additional boundary layer destabilization expected
in the near-term over southeast CO adjacent areas of southwest KS
and the OK/TX Panhandles, a general increase in the coverage of
convection should tend to occur from northwest to southeast as
convection near and over the terrain advances downstream into the
strongly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

Eventually by later this evening there should be an environment
conducive for merging convective clusters which will include a
combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms, and this
will likely promote a stronger MCS evolution that will impact
areas of especially southwest KS. A strengthening nocturnal
southerly low-level jet over the aforementioned the front by later
this evening will be a key contributor to the eventual MCS
evolution via certainly strong warm air advection and moisture
transport.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the
stronger storms, and with cell-merger activity likely, some spotty
2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals are expected over the next few hours.
However, by later this evening, the latest hires model guidance
led by the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS supports areas of southwest KS
seeing heavier totals of 3 to 5 inches given the level of MCS
organization that is expected.

Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
regionally as the convection continues to initiate, organize and
expand in coverage heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GyJorGDAXsLro2QlqzyDpLlnFkaoqrlNJ8GO2YK5gABx-8csbLZXpbijfepe253NHNk= YRjCcP-XmUSnU-mxMoJC48g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40330409 40270300 39860230 38920094 38089869=20
36759876 36140040 36230243 36990391 38380521=20
39870512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052326
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern NV...Northwest AZ...Southern
UT...Extreme Eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052325Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to
persist over the next few hours across portions of southern NV,
extreme eastern CA, northwest AZ and southern UT. Additional
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible going into the
evening hours as a result.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W visible satellite imagery
shows multiple convectively reinforced outflow boundaries
impacting the Southwest from ongoing small-scale clusters of
convection. One axis of well-defined CU/TCU and embedded CBs
exists across southern UT and into southern NV, with another one
farther south over northwest AZ near the Mogollon Rim and over to
the CA/NV border.

In between these two outflow boundaries which are both generally
settling slowly southward, there continues to be the pooling of
instability with as much as 1000 to 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. In fact,
the latest 3-hourly SBCAPE differentials has been showing
localized increases (400+ J/kg) in instability over northwest AZ.
Recent IR satellite imagery has been showing some additional
cooling of the convective cloud tops over southern NV in
particular, and the latest RAP analysis has also been indicating
some modest effective bulk shear parameters showing up as an
elongated mid-level shortwave trough/shear axis approaches the
region from the northwest.

The combination of lingering diurnally enhanced instability along
with cooling cloud top trends and the aforementioned mid-level
trough approaching the region suggests that the ongoing convection
should tend to persist for at least a few more hours. A
combination of orographic ascent and some potential for these
outflow boundaries to interact with one another may also support
potential for renewed convective development in the near-term.

Some additional 1 to 2+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible
with the stronger storms, and given the sensitivities on the
ground around some of the local slot canyon areas (especially
southern UT) along with any burn scars and the normally dry
washes, there may be some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EACyrEbdoZbe-Xky5uQLRI3Jh6lEAFYCcdlcZh1nNPFWpa9VeLqOIz1hLqet5IFYeri= l4TghF_hU00nM8zvC0kiztg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551154 38461017 37761018 37011142 36341169=20
35631153 34821169 34591240 34781365 34851463=20
34991553 35521592 36281597 37051578 37671515=20
38061409 38361289=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060048
FFGMPD
WVZ000-060330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...much of WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060045Z - 060330Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...A cluster of thunderstorms have been persistent
across portions of southern WV over the past 2-3 hours, forming on
the higher elevations of the central Appalachians and propagating
upwind (against weak 700 mb flow from the west) into the New River
Gorge region. While radar data is limited (KRLX down for radome
replacement), GOES-East is indicating impressive cooling cloud
tops along the western flank of the cluster, suggesting slow
moving convection could continue for at least a couple more hours.
Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to continued or
additional isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding (given 1-hr and 3-hr FFGs generally ranging from 1.5-2.0"
and 2.0-2.5", repspectively).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GC8COBtwmE5uj1AbuaKYsrfzycwrlOisrtxlpr-IGIoYRyEf0_EqbDpJxe7PqNS0F8T= SRcDwfyMTCf8X--9MThGVw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38468087 38388044 38088051 37738098 37618184=20
37778223 37988212 38218179 38418130=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Rolling Plains into TX Big Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060152Z - 060600Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8xYZwLgSrniEeAG8yTAPC9K-6DYZMtUwS7Ax4MNLef22hIh_TsnfJnLBX6RKETMYuNrs= 6JKUUPs_fsxP1GPl5rmDOhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34400118 34350016 34139863 33549841 33069869=20
32960025 33120157 33460207 33910218 34280180=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060349
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...southern KS, northern OK, far north TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060400Z - 061000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GNsShYOcy1o0aN_bgDBMW5QiWfLgxD_VK2h4RiBkz2aACOyMAUNtIiVqSmJ-2cyF2IW= 6vLq3REsFw1Xml1Jl0oCt38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37969709 37729516 36079494 35889720 35939925=20
36100057 36190191 36360312 37140265 37430215=20
37600157 37710067 37819968 37899853=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...central and northeast OK into far southeast KS,
southwest MO, and northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061000Z - 061400Z

Summary...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an
associated mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is producing
1.0-2.5"/hr rainfall and may result in additional 3-5" through 9AM
CDT. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...An MCS has matured overnight and is progressing
through northern and eastern portions of OK at this hour. Very
heavy rainfall accompanies this MCS (1-2" hourly totals), and
particularly so ahead and downstream of a distinct MCV over far
northeast OK (up to 2.5" hourly totals and 15-min totals up to
1.5", per MRMS estimates). While the 30-40 kt low-level jet that
is driving moisture transport and lift is expected to rapidly
weaken (to 25 kts or less) over the next several hours, these
rainfall rates will likely result in continued/additional isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding (given 1-hr/3-hr FFGs as
low as 1.0-1.5" and 2.0-2.5", respectively). SBCAPE of 500-2500
J/kg, PWs of 1.5-2.0" (between 90th percentile to near record
values, per OUN and SGF sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 35-55 kts will sustain the heavy rainfall in the short
term. 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities indicate 40-50%
chances for 2"/1-hr exceedance, and 30-60% odds for 3"/3-hr
exceedance (maximized over far northeast OK into adjacent portions
of AR/MO).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Q_1Afec7JjLm1l2-99c6epwv_EwRFvqAuTkkSCqyBK47VNLTtQVgwmAmrjXgaBP1k1A= fu5dsJ0zAZHF7x8rh1r0uGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37749333 37409254 35909386 34559644 35189815=20
35579807 36039772 36459722 36639679 37049616=20
37249522 37339450 37419418=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061152
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-061750-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians...Northern
Mid-Atlantic...Southern NY State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061150Z - 061750Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally tend
to expand in coverage by midday across the central Appalachians,
the northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern NY state. At least
isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible given heavy
rainfall rates and locally wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E WV suite shows a fairly
well-defined shortwave impulse advancing east through the upper OH
Valley which will be crossing gradually into the central
Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic by midday. This energy
coupled with a quasi-stationary front and multiple waves of low
pressure riding northeast along it is already producing some
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across far eastern OH, the
northern WV Panhandle and far western PA.

While instability is quite modest with only about 500 to 750 J/kg
of MUCAPE in place where the axis of convection is occurring, the
diurnal heating cycle by later this morning through midday will
facilitate stronger boundary layer instability. This coupled with
local orographics and differential heating boundaries, along with
a weak upper-level jet streak (associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough) should support a gradual expansion of convective
activity that will encompass the central Appalachians and stretch
northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern NY
state.

The PW anomalies early this morning are running about 1.5 standard
deviations above normal with CIRA-ALPW data showing rather strong concentrations of moisture in the 850/500 mb layer ahead of the
shortwave impulse. This coupled with the increasing instability
over the next several hours should favor increasingly efficient
rainfall rates that by later this morning may reach 1.5+
inches/hour.

Cell-motions are forecast to be relatively slow, and with some of
the activity capable of briefly training over the same area, some
3-hourly rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. Given the locally wet antecedent conditions that are in
place, these heavier rainfall rates/totals may cause at least some
isolated ares of flash flooding and this will include some urban
flooding impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!798xh1S2gP6gCHqZ3AkX_KyB5LRMvFDM0VMTe9p5-yhhxBmmuicIRxmYyDnzfCPSpHlU= ixYigMV85kKOKE0Vb0KtBOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ... PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127592 42817468 42037441 41467499 40477713=20
39197893 37678073 37748220 38738324 39908286=20
40858186 41888015 42747773=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061406
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western and Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061405Z - 061800Z

SUMMARY...A strong and well-organized MCS will continue to
southeast through areas of southeast OK and into western and
central AR. Additional areas of flash flooding in association with
this will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived, but still potent MCS continues to
advance across portions of the southern Plains and into adjacent
areas of the lower and middle MS Valley. Cold convective tops
continue across especially southeast OK and the airmass out ahead
of the MCS cold pool/outflow boundary remains moderately unstable
in an elevated fashion with MUCAPE values of a much as 1000 to
2000+ J/kg. A southwesterly low-level jet on the order of 30 to 35
kts continues to help favor a moderately strong axis of moisture
transport up across the region as well extending from the Red
River Valley up through portions of central and northern AR.

The early morning hires guidance led especially by the HRRR seems
to be weakening the overall organization of the MCS a bit too fast
given the current character of the convective cloud top canopy,
with the RRFS guidance a bit more persistence.

Some gradual weakening as a whole is expected to the MCS by later
this morning as the leading edge of the convection advances
farther downstream. However, the southwest flank of the MCS over
southeast OK and potentially into western AR is exhibiting
increasing signs for cell-training in the short-term (next 2 to 3
hours) which will allow for heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour to potentially result in some 3-hour totals of 2 to 4+
inches through midday before eventually weakening.

Additional areas of isolated to scattered flash flooding will
continue to be possible at least through midday with the southwest
flanking line of the MCS activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cR7XrRLixdOE8bwdaWEDfi28Tfjs5GiCuLCgQ5mHwawRSNwrZfAgaV4ON2Xs0ZUlYP5= XyI_fnLbkvgmmWv--h8HxeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449329 35239193 34229199 33779312 33669544=20
33989684 34639653 34929571 35099448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061522
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061520Z - 062120Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to
generally persist and expand in coverage going through the
mid-afternoon hours from south-central to southeast MO into
southern IL, along with adjacent areas of far southern IN, much of
KY, and far northern TN. Heavy rainfall rates of up to 2
inches/hour and concerns for cell-training will likely result in
at least scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E Airmass RGB satellite imagery
in conjunction with radar shows a strong MCV advancing through
southwest MO in association with a long-lived MCS that is
advancing well off to the east across areas of the southern Plains
and lower to mid-MS Valley region. This MCV though is also
associated with an area of surface low pressure along a
quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across southern
MO and into adjacent downstream areas of the OH Valley. A separate
wave of low pressure is also noted over southeast MO.

The airmass pooling along this front over the lower OH Valley
ahead of these waves of low pressure and the mid-level energy
aloft is rapidly destabilizing with strong solar insolation and
surface heating. Already there are MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+
J/kg pooled across much of the Mid-South with a nose of this
advancing up into western and central KY.

Over the next several hours, some increase in a southwest
low-level jet (reaching 30+ kts) is expected across southeast MO
through at least far southern IL and into western KY as the
upstream MCV and related wave activity arrives. This will set the
stage for stronger low-level moisture convergence and forcing
along the front for a more organized and concentrated threat of
heavy rainfall. However, downstream areas of far southern IN, much
of KY, and far northern TN will also have a likelihood for
scattered clusters of convection as favorable upper-level jet
support near the front along with the boundary layer
destabilization works to promote convective development.

The airmass is quite moist with PWs running around 1.5 standard
deviations above normal, and the increase in instability with some
moderately strong effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts
should favor enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour. The
latest 12Z HREF guidance and recent RRFS solutions show rather
strong support for 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals with locally higher
amounts possible where areas of cell-training take place.

Expect a likelihood for scattered areas of flash flooding to occur
going through the mid-afternoon hours, and this will be aided by
locally moist antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j-4NfWH1TEZK8GT-5S97TyhZIvz-fPospdI50ntTdDNXoeQ2dzGWu2zAd-IRbIo0dnx= LLlhbM2pc-6l_YiNRJIMAy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38938567 38738312 37508282 36568430 36168812=20
36229032 36499232 37009369 37649390 38049320=20
38399116 38678906=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061722
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-062320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Much of Central and Eastern NY...Central and
Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061720Z - 062320Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
expand in coverage this afternoon across especially central and
eastern NY through much of central and southern New England.
Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, some of which may be
locally significant.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
cloud cover and showers advancing across areas of central NY in
association with a shortwave impulse. This energy coupled with
proximity of quasi-stationary front and a destabilizing boundary
layer along it will promote developing and expanding coverage of
heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of
eastern New York through central and southern New England.

MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1000 to 2000+ J/kg across
southeast NY through central and western CT, and also up across
central and western MA. A nose of lesser instability is focused
north of here up across southern VT/NH as well. Additional
destabilization is expected over the next couple of hours as
strong diurnal heating continues ahead of the approaching upstream
energy. This warm sector airmass is also quite moist with PWs of
1.5 to 1.6+ inches in place, and this pooling of moisture will be
supported through the afternoon by a gradual increase in southwest
low-level flow ahead of the shortwave impulse and as a wave of low
pressure develops and transits the front across the interior of
the Northeast.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance supports locally very heavy
rainfall rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour, and with
convection also become locally concentrated/focused near some of
the higher terrain of central and southern New England and
especially southern VT, southern NH, and western and central MA.
Some portions of southwest ME also based on recent HRRR guidance
gets into some locally stronger concentrations of convection by
early this evening as well.

Given the approaching upstream wave and level moisture and
instability that is in place, broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of some cell-training. As much as 3 to 5+ inches will be
possible near some of the orographically favored terrain including
the southern portions of the Green and White Mountains on down
into the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Elsewhere, areas away
from the terrain and back into areas of eastern NY including the
Hudson Valley and adjacent Catskills may see as much as 2 to 4
inches of rain where storms become locally focused.

Given the overall setup, and the relatively moist antecedent
conditions, these rains are likely to cause flash flooding by
later this afternoon which will likely continue into a part of the
early evening time frame. Some locally significant flash flooding
will be possible where the heaviest totals focus near areas of
higher terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5ccycjOXBLhqTswYilucbubqSyweK-dbeClSfUCcms6psvtKsCk_r6ro_0AlujYbKq4= moHn2fDj9h2GBC3QRNQpnZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44777023 44316968 43836979 43477027 42487119=20
41747225 41257376 41317472 41807536 42317540=20
43007489 43387466 43967447 44287353 44377242=20
44667142=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061817
FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-07001=
5-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians into the Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061815Z - 070015Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to locally
expand in coverage through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely from
heavy rainfall rates and locally wet antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with dual-pol radar shows scattered to locally broken areas
of heavy showers and thunderstorms already impacting southeast OH,
much of WV, western MD and also southwest to northeast PA. Strong
boundary layer heating continues locally which has allowed for
MLCAPE values to rise to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, with the
better instability noted across southeast PA through northern NJ.
However, secondary areas of 1000+ J/kg CAPE values are also noted
across the western slopes of the central Appalachians in the wake
of earlier convection.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will generally continue to advance
east off the terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge over the
next few hours and get into at least the Piedmont areas of the
northern Mid-Atlantic. There are some question marks about the
I-95 corridor where some pockets of larger scale subsidence are
noted given proximity of a surface low center off the Delmarva,
but as this low pulls away, and additional surface heating takes
place over the next few hours, the I-95 corridor from northern VA
through northeast MD, southeast PA, and into central and northern
NJ may also get into these areas of thunderstorms. Radar imagery
shows a band of strong thunderstorms with high rainfall rates
focused from near Harrisburg, PA down through Martinsburg, WV, and
this band is associated with some evidence of a weak MCV/shortwave
impulse.

Ongoing recover of instability farther west over the central
Appalachians and the western slopes of the terrain is occurring
out ahead of a cold front, but with additional upstream shortwave
energy approaching along with the influence of orographics,
convection will be reloading across these areas going through
early this evening.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms across the entire region
will likely be 1 to 2 inches/hour, but with some additional spotty
rainfall totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches going through early
this evening. Given the impacts over areas that are already very
moist on the ground, and also the concern for some urban impacts,
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will generally be
likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mz0OZtuNSlhagVe1Mni9j0Yb8V2ZrpBiRGIRUqIZzkSOPuBHLPYm6d7xOoThzzJ42Dh= QwNakitSH09JOftHuUGCkyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...OKX...PBZ... PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41987566 41777473 41327390 40537389 39747517=20
38767691 38047841 37438006 37228239 38398348=20
39318287 40188147 41358002 41737872 41957725=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062132
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062130Z - 070250Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy thunderstorms will shift east
over Kentucky and much of Tennessee through this evening. Heavy
rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour from repeating and merging
cells makes a likely risk for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A mesolow over western KY is accompanied by merging
lines of heavy thunderstorms with additional scattered storms over
central TN. This activity will continue to shift east in broad
zonal flow with a noted impulse in water vapor imagery over
western KY/TN. A separate wave of low pressure is along the a
frontal boundary over southern MO.

Low level WSWly flow around 20kt is maintaining elevated moisture
with 2" PW (2 sigma above normal) pooled over western KY through
central TN. Ample instability is present with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg along and south of this moisture pool. The activity has
become more perpendicular to the mean layer Wly flow, but new
development ahead of the lines is allow for localized repeating
cells. Enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr can be expected to
continue which is in agreement with recent HRRR and RRFs runs.
Localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is likely through 03Z with
flash flooding considered likely.

Recent development trends have generally been south of central KY
which saw 1-2.5" rainfall this afternoon and is more vulnerable
than the rest of the outlook area. There is a threat for isolated
activity overnight, so further discussion may be needed for
portions of the TN valley overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8FQxpadhGXAguxseYKREE9hrczE6KG7MCj3tgouXcy0rZ6-XG_q6-dfpCiJ8_VAJ9CSN= MJW2tRm_ms1VrDAghDF7tW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38098549 37638323 36618183 36058235 34998473=20
35498785 36358851 37248789 37918737=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-070428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070428Z

Summary...Supercells continue to develop over West Texas this
evening with slow motion and repeating activity brings rainfall
rates up to 2"/hr which should cause scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly for areas impacted by the storms last
evening.

Discussion...Scattered supercells will continue to develop along a
surface trough set up west to east over the Caprock and through
the Lubbock metro area. There is a notable risk for intense,
long-lived supercells, much like last night in this same area due
to an environment with SBCAPE of 4000+ J/kg, PW 1.4-1.6 inches
(near or above the 90th percentile), and 50-60 kts of deep layer
(0-6 km) shear. Low-level Sly flow of 15kt is providing fresh
inflow which will only increase overnight as it intensifies into a
low-level jet.=20

Recent HRRRs are much to late with development in this area, but
the RRFs is much more energetic and decent with the current
depiction. The 6hr QPF from the RRFS is 2-4" in this west-east
corridor and helps form the basis for this discussion (along with
upscale growth to existing cells at this time. Congealing activity
should allow for repeating heavy rain while upwind propagation
should allow for longer duration of heavy rain. It is worth noting
that giant hail is also a risk with this activity. Very intense
rainfall rates up to 2-3"/hr would result in scattered flash
flooding, particularly for urban environments like Lubbock and
where the storms tracked last night which also intersected
Lubbock. Scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely for the outlook area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6zXfNsLIhodgd1bjGIvbFLlLbW02M-SSlkggH4c89nFuWDKIsQ7c1rhjefzPO8hyVDRi= KPITkNfTrqALc1HKT5MIBQ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34320156 34329887 33109866 32820029 33150318=20
34090327=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062314
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0385
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062312Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to move east over
mainly interior sections of New England this evening before
dissipating near the coast. Further localized flash flooding is
possible through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Narrow swaths of elevated instability (SBCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg) persist east of a frontal zone and inland from the
coast where a cool breeze has set up. Southerly flow ahead of the
fronts is reinforcing moisture with PW up to 1.6". Recent HRRR and
RRFS runs quickly diminish the activity shortly after 00Z, but the
presence of the instability, particularly over interior CT and up
the I-95 corridor into Maine warrants an additional note beyond
the main period of flooding that occurred this afternoon over New
England terrain back toward the Hudson Valley. Recent IR satellite
scans do show a warming trend to cloud tops, so perhaps that trend
will indeed continue as CAMs suggest. Still, an additional 2" is
possible in places through this evening which could cause further
localized flash flooding.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4rZ0-JSek5Xpjd9TQc0Ym3yvIk9yn3tkSyuGjijssjIVEIjOag1g11hI452845mxVbjK= PDclfzCmDw_6GhAqtkLwWx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44867032 44556945 43857030 43077079 42557106=20
42157137 41677169 41387308 41717323 42997172=20
44347091=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070004
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070602-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0386
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070002Z - 070602Z

Summary...Scattered supercellular activity over southeast Colorado
into the Oklahoma Panhandle is expected to develop into a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) rest of this evening and track
southeast overnight. The flash flood threat will increase with
this development, particularly as it crosses areas in southern
Kansas which saw heavy thunderstorms last night. Localized flash
flooding is likely through 06Z.

Discussion...Supercells in southeastern CO have developed in a
high shear (60kt 0-6km Bulk Shear)/moderate instability (1500-2000
K/kg SBCAPE) environment. Further development between the two main
cells just prior to 00Z is an indication of the expected MCS
development tonight. The right side of this developing MCS will
cross areas impacted by heavy rain this afternoon from a cell
currently in the OK Panhandle and activity from last night over
southern KS.

Ample moisture is present in CO downstream of this activity with
PW around 1". Further moisture will be provided as it moves into
KS from the nocturnal low-level jet which the development should
turn south into in spite of deep layer westerly flow in an overall
zonal flow pattern over the central U.S. Heavy rainfall is
expected with 1-2" hourly totals, and particularly where flanking
axes become repetitive. Antecedent wet soils are present over
southern KS and far southeast CO where heavy rain has fallen over
the past day.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_nt5J6gdwMbRU_hgYii8lGfh4lqFwwKzhYBStZmzUQSn6rM0dz7ZqRfMmLhPC4j7ZnU= dEU3ajBJ-etnE2rfdEEh_R0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39400205 38889968 37839869 35609888 36120083=20
37030343 37650430 38700390 39310290=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070031
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0387
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Central Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070029Z - 070600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving rounds of heavy rain is expected to keep
shifting east along a stalled frontal boundary from southern
Indiana through the Cincinnati metro area this evening. Localized
flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave impulse in zonal flow will continue to
shift east over the central Ohio Valley this evening. Deep layer
WSWly flow will keep activity moving parallel to a stationary
front draped just north of the Ohio River. Elevated moisture will
be maintained with 1.75" PW (2 sigma above normal) with sufficient
instability (SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Enhanced rainfall rates of
up to 1.5"/hr can be expected to continue which is in agreement
with recent HRRR and RRFS runs. Localized rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible through 06Z with flash flooding considered
possible.

Much of this area has not received rainfall over the past day.
However, the slow moving nature of this activity and the potential
for another round overnight makes for a possible flash flood
threat.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7wjxWFx4wU4ASYrmtvBUXoMmZTVDIhs-obdZ7RzOigFLwde2FsBUDyBnsnOUxthXUl73= jAjoPwvdteXb-yKcIRDvseM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39618210 39018182 38548236 38328325 38298428=20
38588585 39498581 39578437=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070451
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern KS...Far northwest TX
Panhandle...Northern & Central OK...Adj SW MO/NW AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070450Z - 070930Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective coverage as clusters grow upscale
into a quick moving MCS. Sub-hourly 1-1.5" with potential for
some repeating on southern flank results in scattered spots of
3-4" totals. Given saturated grounds, localized incidents of
flash flooding are likely.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic depict multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX
panhandle and west-central OK in advance of expanding linear
convective complex across SW KS into the OK Panhandle. The latter
has quick momentum at the leading edge of stronger larger scale height-falls/solid DPVA across N KS at the right entrance of an
expanding/jet streak that is already 90kts across NEB at 300mb.=20
The combination is providing very strong dynamic ascent and
evacuation for developing convective line and MCV across
west-central KS. As such strong WAA has been over-spreading much
of OK into S KS from untapped very unstable environment with 3000
J/kg of MLCAPE. The strong WAA at the nose of a broad weakly
veered 25-30kt LLJ is providing the solid isentropic
ascent/moisture convergence along a lingering deep layer moisture
pool in OK which is sparking pre-linear MCS thunderstorms.

With very broad up/downdraft channels and ample 2" total PWats,
cells are becoming very efficient rainfall producers as severe
capabilities slowly diminish. Sub-hourly totals of 1-2" have been
observed even though deep layer steering allows for some
progressive forward motions. These cells are setting the stage
and further moistening the upper-layers of an already fairly
saturated grounds, especially east of I-35. So it is possible
even these pre-cursory cells may result in localized flash
flooding conditions prior to the main line. Additionally,
proximity to the southern edge of the moisture/instability, may
allow for a favored alley for training given shifting too far
south may see greater dry/stable air ingestion and favoring
maintenance north of the gradient in south-central OK.

RADAR trends show, strong vertical ascent along the leading edge
of the linear complex into Pawnee/Stafford county KS, potentially
further developing to edge of 700mb WAA ascent band north of the
Flint Hills in east-central KS. Strengthening MCV under
aforementioned strong upper-level support will allow for increased back-shearing of the complex with favorable mid-level inflow jet
likely helping to maintain broad moderate shield precipitation in
the northern rotor of the MCS near the MCV for prolonged moderate
rainfall as well across central KS. However, increasing concern
is along the southern rotor of the MCS where forward propagation
vectors will be slightly reduced allowing for increased orthogonal
exposure to the broad southerly LLJ. As such, flanking cells will
have a greater potential for training but also having best
moisture/instability flux for strongest updrafts capable of 2"/hr.
This may result in a streak/swath of enhanced rainfall totals of
3-4" across northeast TX panhandle and likely along/north of I-40,
but with solid DPVA/expanding WAA, MCS will expand for broader
area of enhanced rainfall potential into Northeast OK and
eventually southwest MO/NW AR toward 10z. Forward propagation
will likely limit significant totals but spots of 3-4" in less
than 3hrs will exceed FFG values over this saturated ground (RSM
0-40cm of 70-75%). As such, flash flooding is considered likely
overnight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5I4C4LpHxwRchMU4c7SmFWnpCtDN4OzEKtky1simUCjW2x-FINgi_FKB5BzLvcftTdbV= i3DYpwOpt3uWs3Aw-pqPHs0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38609681 38359567 37859488 37479445 36779412=20
35649436 35079520 34889646 34919786 35029913=20
35320023 36470222 37080177 37659982 38399875=20
38579789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070536
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-071100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern OH...Central to Northeast KY...Much of
WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070535Z - 071100Z

SUMMARY...Shallow but efficient slow moving cells capable of
1.5"/hr with some potential repeating may result in widely
scattered localized flash flooding conditions overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad west to east
shortwave feature crossing near Cincinnati, OH with favorable
vorticity advection supporting a weak surface to boundary layer
wave in southeast OH along/south of a stagnant stationary front.=20
Ample low level moisture in the mid to upper 60s and spots of low
70s, while CIRA LPW shows a ribbon of enhanced moisture
along/ahead of this wave bringing nearly moist/saturated profiles
to support 1.75" total PWats. Some weak remaining unstable air
remains with 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE in the vicinity of the Ohio
River and southward into eastern KY. As such, RADAR and 10.3um
IR loop shows a few very shallow cells along of the wave in S OH
as well as back in the trailing trof of the mid-level wave
along/east of Louisville, KY.

While weak, there are pockets of enhanced moisture convergence in
the 10-15kts of veered low level flow to tap the weak instability.
With the shallow updrafts, all of it are within the warm cloud
layer, will result in highly efficient tropical like showers.=20
Rates of 1.5-1.75" could be common over highly focused fairly
narrow updrafts. The concern is the overall deep layer steering
is unidirectional nearly west to east which also will contribute
to an upslope component across E KY/WV over the next few hours.=20=20
As such, narrow streaks of hour or two of training may support
localized streaks of 1.5-2.5" over 1-3hrs across the area of
concern. Given complexity of terrain, recent above average
rainfall over S OH, N WV and soil saturation ratios in the 60-70%
and isolated incident or two of flash flooding will continue to be
possible through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!59vH941tSJub9Q0Hco0lIqH8JQrs_JYVtp37Tv6h1KkPWHWoyxJk2MmeOvpn834-6F0m= JGR5pOxnYEO2HjbwqKO0acY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707997 39537964 39197955 38677987 38038101=20
37448208 36808358 36908489 37528538 38118588=20
38538544 38698469 38838412 38988358 39258270=20
39598157=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070736
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-071130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071130Z

SUMMARY...Persistent repeating convection tracking across similar
areas of heavy rain/saturated grounds suggests possible flash
flooding to continue for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E and AMA/LBB RADAR mosaic show continued solid
convective activity of elevated thunderstorms with some broader
stronger rotating updrafts from Lamb to Cottle county Texas.=20
Solid 925-850mb veered LLJ at 35-45kts from southeast to southerly
continue to ascent across a similarly flat west to east outflow
boundary a few counties south from earlier convection, continuing
to be reinforced by the ongoing activity. This shallow cold pool
continues to provide sufficient isentropic ascent and speed
convergence to maintain moisture/instability flux to the line of
cells. Recent 10.3um EIR loops has shown solid uptick in
convective vigor, cloud top cooling and hard/bumpy tops suggestive
of strengthening rainfall potential to accompany severe risks.=20

Given deep layer steering flattens from just above 700mb and slows
to 20-30kts, rainfall duration is starting to aid in overall
rainfall accumulation over the last hour or two. Rates of 1.5"/hr
given western edge of fairly deep layer moisture availability and
flux; translating over similar 1hour FFG values in the 1-1.5"/hr
range due to last few days, suggests additional spots of 2-3" over
the next 3 hours may result in additional flash flooding incidents.

GOES-E 7.3 Low-Level WV animation shows a weak circulation over
northeast NM, with tightening temperature gradient likely in
response to some outflow/gravity waves coming off active
convection along the flanking line of the complex across the
northern Panhandle. This tightening with further steepening of
the lower level isentropes/frontal zone and in proximity of a well
of enhanced capped MLCAPEs to 2500 J/kg, has seen newer convection
develop along the NM/TX border. While this development isn't
ideally aligned with convective line to the south, further
expansion (and tendency to propagate south given undercutting
outflow from the north) suggests training/potential for 1.5"/hr
and spots of 2"+ totals in short-duration is expanding toward the
northwest in the TX panhandle and adjacent NM...nearly ideally
aligned with the localized minimum in FFG values. Further
expanding the area of possible flash flooding incident or two over
the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-d-IaLsFNUx94p1dzDGfOQAmdwik4IpghVyekpdHzelC4gV_m_FkCVj5BegkKtTFJEWA= V8y_c2howmXpxPCgZxb5dYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35600270 35380195 34429971 33979844 33519853=20
33429969 33580147 33770223 34090277 34540311=20
35380356=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070853
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northern AR...Northeast OK...Far Southeast
KS...Southwest MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070850Z - 071430Z

SUMMARY...Progressive MCS with broad warm advective thunderstorms
downstream should support opportunities for multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall with rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" resulting
in possible incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Mature MCS continues to race east-southeastward
across the Flint Hills of south-central KS with very strong
dynamics aloft to help maintain it as it progresses into the Ozark
Plateau. Very strong divergence aloft within the right entrance
to dual jet structure aloft along with latent heat release will
continue support strong mid-level cyclogenesis. In response, VWP
networks shows broad strengthening of the LLJ with solid veering
through 700mb and winds of southwesterly components to over 30kts
through depth continuing to advect very unstable (2500-3000 J/kg
of MUCAPE) while also pooling deep layer moisture along the
southeast quadrant of the MCV to 2-2.1".=20

Given the cyclonic/isallobaric component, winds are also very
convergent to support high moisture flux along and downstream of
the MCV track. Currently, warm advective cells have developed well
into north-central AR with rates of 1.5"/hr well in advance of the
cells near the center with rates likely to be over 2"/hr. While
cells along the effective warm front are moving more
east-northeast relatively and are not ideally training with
occasional breaks in intense rainfall rates; there will be
multiple periods of heavy rainfall before capping it off with the
cells near the effective triple point, followed by an hour or so
of moderate broad shield precipitation. This will allow for a
broad area of 2-3" totals across the 4 state corners into
north-central AR toward 12z. Isolated spots on the line with
greatest duration/intensity will likely see 3-4"+ totals and
likely will drive incidents of flash flooding through daybreak.
While the hydrology gets better further east toward the MS River
Valley, the MCS is likely to maintain with similar rates/totals
though incidents of flash flooding are more likely to be more
scattered in nature relative to upstream in the Ozark Plateau

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6s5mozbPeAO_cwTyadC7xPFNKgZNLWZQOtaumSuz6qzi1-OppzHI007WRuOTKPUN1X-r= GFuJx7LH4R-ltfZZa-9EYrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37829556 37749422 37409320 36989210 36529119=20
36069049 35279033 34619113 34899383 35579612=20
36369659 37289636=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071101
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Central and Eastern NY...Central
and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071100Z - 071600Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue through the morning hours across areas of northeast
PA into eastern NY, and eventually spreading into parts of central
and southern New England toward midday. Additional areas of flash
flooding are likely given locally sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...Recent cloud-top cooling is noted with a broken area
of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms impacting areas of
northeast PA into central and eastern NY. The activity is being
focused by a shortwave impulse advancing into the Northeast out
ahead a larger scale trough lifting through the OH Valley and
central Appalachians. This energy is also interacting with a
quasi-stationary front and helping to focus a wave of low pressure
which is promoting isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing
near the front for the locally heavier and concentrated areas of
rainfall.

Despite very modest instability profiles with only about 250 to
500 J/kg of MUCAPE value, the vertical column is quite moist with
PWs running a solid 1.5 standard deviations above normal, and
CIRA-ALPW data showing strong concentrations of mid-level
moisture. The recent cloud-top cooling suggests the current
activity will likely continue in the near-term, and the latest
upper-air analysis is showing some improving right-entrance region
upper-jet dynamics over the region for ascent. This will
compensate for the lack of instability over the next few hours and
continue to favor at least broken ares of highly efficient
rainfall and elevated rain rates.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
strong convective cores, and with relatively slow cell-motions,
some short-term rainfall rates at least by late-morning may reach
2 to 3+ inches. While the activity over the next few hours will
tend to be more focused over areas of eastern NY and down into the
Poconos of northeast PA, areas of central and southern New England
will also begin to see a threat of heavy rainfall by midday.

The antecedent conditions in general across the region are rather
sensitive, with locally elevated streamflows, and thus with the
additional rainfall this morning, there will likely be concerns
additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5byJrrhyihI_a7_sUgyPqnZphiL7rSTIMnzasNVARuOilsnneAjMY8B_nQFx7ZhfhcxK= dVmbZpCCR1-ywu3PtM0TwNw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717394 43387208 42417198 41757275 41277372=20
41067522 41777632 42897584=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071432
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Northeast KS...West-Central
and Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071430Z - 071930Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will be dropping down across northeast KS and into areas of
west-central and northern MO over the next few hours with some
gradual expansion in coverage. Areas of flash flooding will be
possible which will include an urban flooding threat to the Kansas
City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined and relatively compact shortwave
trough ejecting east-southeast across southeast NE this morning is
expected to gradually advance down across far northeast KS and
northern MO going through the early afternoon hours. The dynamical
nature of this system interacting with modest instability with
MUCAPE values of 500+ J/kg should favor at least a sustenance of
the current activity.

However, as the diurnal heating cycle ensues over the next several
hours, there will be downstream areas of especially west-central
and northern MO that destabilize which will favor an environment
conducive for convection to expand in coverage. This will further
be facilitated by low-level convergence near a well-defined low
center over northeast KS and also with a reloading/strengthening
of a synoptic scale front across the region.

The environment on a concentrated basis with the shortwave energy
is rather moist and efficient, and rainfall rates with the
convection over the next few hours should be rather high and
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. Given the rather slow
cell-motions that are currently seen in radar imagery, some
rainfall totals going through early this afternoon may reach 3 to
4+ inches.

This will tend to support a concern for some areas of flash
flooding in a general sense, however, these heavy rains are likely
to impact the Kansas City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas as
well. Thus, there will also be an urban flooding threat over the
next few hours as the heavier showers and thunderstorms arrive.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-X7SFVaQvKYZCM-h07XlCsRA3Q5DUXj73aoO9iF0cnj1ZJZ4ZMpSaKIeb0iD11IUc6qO= qiQyuFa8Z8-HPgrIjgCZE8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40569574 40379385 39949208 38989191 38449300=20
38669514 39329625 40049655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071602
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Central and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071600Z - 072200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread much of the
northeast Mid-Atlantic region into central and southern New
England going through the mid to late-afternoon hours. This will
include some locally more concentrated areas of stronger
thunderstorm activity with higher rainfall rates. Areas of flash
flooding are likely considering the very moist and locally
saturated soil conditions.

DISCUSSION...An expansive axis of heavy rainfall in a southwest to
northeast fashion continues to advance across southeast NY and
into central and southern New England. The activity which includes
some occasionally stronger thunderstorm activity continues to be
strongly supported by an ejecting shortwave trough and associated
wave of low pressure which is transiting a well-defined frontal
zone across the Northeast.

The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows an excellent
corridor of upper-level jet divergence/forcing over especially
central and southern New England with an expansive axis of cooling
cloud-tops over the region. There continues to be a low-level
frontogenetic response to this with the axis of heavy rainfall
which has been very efficient this morning. Shallow, warm
convective tops and frontogenetical forcing in the lower to
mid-levels of the column have been yielding warm rain processes,
and this showed up well in the 12Z ALY RAOB sounding which
depicted a deep moist column with a tall/skinny CAPE profile.

There should be a gradual uptick in the overall convective
footprint of the heavy rainfall this afternoon across especially
southern New England including the Boston, MA to Hartford, CT
corridor and potentially edging south to near the New York City
metropolitan area and adjacent areas of northern NJ by late
afternoon. This will be supported by convergence along the
aforementioned frontal zone, but also with an increase in
diurnally driven instability. Cloud cover will tend to mitigate
the amount of surface heating that does occur, but with an already
very moist column, and the aforementioned low-level and
upper-level support, there should be a gradual expansion of
heavier showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the locally slow cell-motions and
pockets of at least brief cell-training may support some totals by
early this evening that reach 3 to 4+ inches. This is supported by
the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive over the higher
terrain of southern VT, southern NH and through central and
western MA. Runoff here over the next few hours may be enhanced
given the additional rains, and gradually heavier rainfall rates
farther south and east may pose some urban flooding concerns.
Overall, on a regional level, areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4zyz2fNHQrNj5-6EzBlPX724UItKVK7zzsMlO1CFZPtKu2WHTKPaxkPDObDlKf4Rr6AK= yZUqQEvVW1o4fjPFj3TO9ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44607027 44566903 43996893 42937041 41747132=20
41217275 40987314 40527430 40537520 41047545=20
41917467 42717390 43727193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071606
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...Central and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071600Z - 072200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread much of the
northeast Mid-Atlantic region into central and southern New
England going through the mid to late-afternoon hours. This will
include some locally more concentrated areas of stronger
thunderstorm activity with higher rainfall rates. Areas of flash
flooding are likely considering the very moist and locally
saturated soil conditions.

DISCUSSION...An expansive axis of heavy rainfall in a southwest to
northeast fashion continues to advance across southeast NY and
into central and southern New England. The activity which includes
some occasionally stronger thunderstorm activity continues to be
strongly supported by an ejecting shortwave trough and associated
wave of low pressure which is transiting a well-defined frontal
zone across the Northeast.

The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows an excellent
corridor of upper-level jet divergence/forcing over especially
central and southern New England with an expansive axis of cooling
cloud-tops over the region. There continues to be a low-level
frontogenetic response to this with the axis of heavy rainfall
which has been very efficient this morning. Shallow, warm
convective tops and frontogenetical forcing in the lower to
mid-levels of the column have been yielding warm rain processes,
and this showed up well in the 12Z ALY RAOB sounding which
depicted a deep moist column with a tall/skinny CAPE profile.

There should be a gradual uptick in the overall convective
footprint of the heavy rainfall this afternoon across especially
southern New England including the Boston, MA to Hartford, CT
corridor and potentially edging south to near the New York City
metropolitan area and adjacent areas of northern NJ by late
afternoon. This will be supported by convergence along the
aforementioned frontal zone, but also with an increase in
diurnally driven instability. Cloud cover will tend to mitigate
the amount of surface heating that does occur, but with an already
very moist column, and the aforementioned low-level and
upper-level support, there should be a gradual expansion of
heavier showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the locally slow cell-motions and
pockets of at least brief cell-training may support some totals by
early this evening that reach 3 to 4+ inches. This is supported by
the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive over the higher
terrain of southern VT, southern NH and through central and
western MA. Runoff here over the next few hours may be enhanced
given the additional rains, and gradually heavier rainfall rates
farther south and east may pose some urban flooding concerns.
Overall, on a regional level, areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R4grHp5Wg6GEP5i9dXmmHXEyxfS77bhDGbtcItE8WCmURe8VWe8X4GBL0uYzWSlHgxG= KlfJnDEaOhvnu8Z8xiy84qE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44607027 44566903 43996893 42937041 41747132=20
41217275 40987314 40527430 40537520 41047545=20
41917467 42717390 43727193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080245
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern AR...Northern MS... Adj Northwest
TX/Southwest OK...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080245Z - 080800Z

SUMMARY...Training, back-building thunderstorms within axis of
enhanced moisture capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates and localized totals
of 3-4" pose possible incident(s) of localized flash flooding
overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR and Regional RADAR mosaic depict a
west to east band of thunderstorms with a few cells starting to
expand and cool below -65C. Cells are developing within a very
favorable moisture/instability axis south of the main front. A
surface Td gradient is well denoted with mid to upper 70s Tds
within the higher theta-E axis from the Red River Valley across S
AR into N MS/AL (while being 10 degrees cooler downslope of the
Ozark Plateau in central AR. CIRA LPW also notes mid-level
layers are at the trailing end of stronger shortwave over the Ohio
Valley but the upstream wedge brings an axis of 2" total PWats
through the area of concern. In the wake of the shortwave in IL,
height-falls are starting to encroach from the northwest further
tightening the gradient of moisture/instability and given cyclonic
curl of weak (15-20kt) LLJ out of central TX has resulted in a
solid confluence axis coincident providing deep layer convergence
for convective development. Flow is fairly unidirectional
parallel to the moisture/instability gradient to support some
training/repeat potential. However, the weaker inflow from the
west suggests, convergence will be stronger along the upwind side
of deeper convective clusters/cells to support
back-building/flanking line development. Propagation vectors,
including Bunker's right mover vectors, suggest clusters will
deflect just south of due east though enough overlap should exist
for some training/repeating cells.

Much like the convergence, the best instability air remains
upstream across the OK/TX Red River Valley propagating into the
clusters mainly in SW AR. MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg will
remain available slowly expanding east into S AR over the next few
hours. So strong updrafts and flux should support efficient
rainfall production with 2-2.5"/hr rates possible. Given
flanking development, potential for pockets/clusters of 3-4"
totals are probable through the overnight period, with an isolated
5" total possible. Hydrologically, the area of concern has been
able to recover better than points north and NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm
soil moisture has returned to average in all but far northern MS.=20
Most values range in the 50%-60% saturation, so FFG values have
also increased back to normal ranges, generally about 2.5-3"/hr
and 4"/3hrs (2.5-3" in N MS). Given this, incidents of flash
flooding are likely to be localized and widely scattered through
the axis (though guidance/trends suggest SW AR as best potentail)
and is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!686R-YDvXgqUdtFCEo0klNkTomWyFD5muHgprm_vlVh7XoTLfrnBSIp8w2avC4Phny32= baTHzD5nzJ_2B_AL3amshnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34909034 34798888 34288823 33418841 32958944=20
32899195 32999383 33599495 33999507 34239482=20
34519393 34639283=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080353
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 PM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Central and southeast IND...Southwest
OH...Northeast KY...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080355Z - 080900Z

SUMMARY...Scattered, focused but very intense warm cloud tropical
showers capable of quick 1.5-1.75"/hr and totals up to 2.5" may
result in possible flash flooding.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a pair of smaller scale
shortwave features moving through the Ohio Valley at the eastern
edge of the larger cyclonic synoptic trough over the Great Lakes.
A stronger mid to upper level jet swings through the Lower Ohio
into the TN River Valley, the short-wave axis continues to
elongate/shear but also act as a deep layer speed convergence trof
fro northwest IND across SW OH toward NE KY, with the base of the
shear axis rotating eastward quicker. Deep layer moisture through
the Ohio Valley remains well above average near 1.6-1.8" PWat. As
the broad 20-25kt 850mb LLJ under-cuts, it is also advecting some
weak mid-level drying to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates
and increase available instability toward 750-1000 J/kg in
proximity to speed convergence axis. As such, smaller embedded
fairly narrow updraft cores have been sprouting through the cirrus
shield where some right entrance ascent/outflow has been
increasing as the speed max exits to the northeast. Throughout
the evening these shallow updrafts have been very efficient even
with the above average moisture perhaps with some enhanced
nucleation from ingested smoke particles in the warm cloud layer.=20
Cells within the shear axis have also shown relatively slow cell
motion with some remaining stationary for over an hour resulting
in recent hourly observations of 1.25-1.5".=20

Slow eastward shift of the shear axis with the base swinging
through E KY/SW WV a bit quicker, may result in some very isolated
spots seeing a repeating of these embedded shallow convective
cells. As such, it cannot be ruled out a spot or t increase, with
even recent hourly observations of 1.25-1.5" noted.wo of 2-2.5"
totals may be possible. Still, the overall coverage is likely at
the limit of inducing more than a few isolated incidents of flash
flooding. However, hourly FFG of 1-1.5" and 3hr FFG values less
than 2" dot the of concern and so there is sufficient potential
for at least one or two possible incidents through early morning
in/along the shear axis, particularly in narrow gullies/complex
terrain within the Cumberland Plateau into central Appalachians.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_gHfN-X6UUolexQKvZLsszhNO-116VBf3HBuRFWqzcXkenLAXpKheQWLI5i2ceK8MMW7= gm5InkTNatx5bKGJKuK3uUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40958648 40858545 40488475 39868323 39608228=20
39378156 38968077 38658067 37718115 37258201=20
37348292 37598374 38108539 38318656 38898728=20
39998751 40558743 40938706=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080646
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Central AL...East-central MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080645Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective complex with favorable
repeating/training elements suggest localized 2-4" totals and
localized flash flooding is increasingly possible through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loops shows individual
cells/overshooting tops continue to cool and expand westward along
the flanking line. Cooling tops to -65 to -70C have expanded
westward generally aligned with the collapse of the upstream cells
in SE AR. 06z surface analysis along with VWP, suggests increased southwesterly flow from surface to boundary layer combined with
forward flank cold pool is resulting in a more orthogonal ascent
plane for convective expansion. GOES-WV and EIR also denotes a
trailing boundary from exiting shortwave/mid-level trough can be
seen extending across the Fall-line in SC across central GA before
angling back northwest. SWIR and RADAR shows some downstream TCu
developing along this axis; which also seems to align ideally from
NW to SE with propagation vectors.

RAP analysis shows a pool of uncapped 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within
the best streamlines into the expanding complex. Tds in the mid
to upper 70s combined with a pool of 700mb enhanced moisture is
resulting in localized PWats of 1.8 to 2", all adding into
continued potential for 2-2.5"/hr rates. Expanding NW line should
allow for longer duration of 2-3 hours, suggesting a swath of 2-4"
is becoming more probable. Boundary layer inflow is currently
peaking around 20-30kts, but is expected to diminish slowly toward
12z, likely reducing convective strength as the complex rolls
through central AL.=20

Hydrologically, this complex as it tracks east-southeast is moving
into an area of reduced FFG values with 1hr values of 2-3" (less
than 2" near cities like Birmingham) and 3hr values are generally
around 3-3.5". As such, places of ideal, greatest prolonged
training are well within the possibility of exceedance and
therefore, flash flooding is considered possible through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6h2dfuApWIR8a0OgAdP2H8Y6nzKltixtk0XLgTfPRbeMtzW-XlcUgyAAS13BYTxZWlok= NllMBeJ3p5L6gou6ECMqGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34138859 33838705 33628573 32838543 32168556=20
32338687 33068884 33658972 34098956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080730
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Texarkana...Northern LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080730Z - 081300Z

SUMMARY...Continued upstream redevelopment and repeating across
Texarkana to add additional 2-4" totals continuing to pose risk of
possible localized flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows main shortwave across Ohio River
Valley being pressed by stronger synoptic height-falls across the
central Plains bleeding into the Ozark Plateau. This push
continues to drive northwesterly flow/drier air to sharpen the
stationary front across the Red River into the Delta Region of the
Mississippi River Valley. Broad southerly to southwesterly
surface to boundary layer flow across TX into N LA remains
providing strong deep layer moisture convergence impinged against
the front. Stronger cluster of cells moved right of the mean flow
entering northern LA left a wake of 1.5-2.5" totals and cold pool
angled from NW to SE crossing McCurtain county OK, Bowie county
TX, and Miller county AR.=20

Upglide ascent of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and low to mid 70s Td
air has resulted in additional upstream redevelopment with
additional convergence up the Red River with scattered Tcu likely
to further back-fill the downstream cells over the next few hours
as well. However, flow is near or just past diurnal maxima and
may be further veering reducing the orthogonal ascent/convergence
with time. Still, Given ample deep layer moisture to 2" and slow
southeastward repeating an additional 2-4" totals across SW AR
into N LA remain possible maintaining a low-end potential for
localized flash flooding through daybreak. Given remaining high
FFG values and inconsistent convective coverage, flash flooding is
still considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6gwX7n8loqAToh-kNs8cg_lfcsXnbUe29zBZQGomAUc-4mTUz1ZigK2GlM5qZXIimXaQ= 1lRmqhWqPu-map1JAFnPXQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34309478 34039353 33299168 32669124 32219162=20
32319256 32769368 33239454 33749511=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081138
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-081536-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Central and Easterm MS...Western and Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081136Z - 081536Z

SUMMARY...Areas of locally backbuilding and training thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue for
at least a few more hours across portions of eastern MS through
western and central AL. Additional isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The early-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
notably divergent flow aloft associated with cold-topped
convection across portions of eastern MS through western and
central AL. Some of the more vigorous activity is noted over
eastern MS in particular with cloud top temperatures as cold as
-70C.

This activity is embedded within a convergent low-level flow
regime with a moderately buoyant airmass still situated across the
region. MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 J/kg are in place, with
the greater instability parameters over central and eastern MS.
Additionally, there is as much as 40 to 50 kts of effective bulk
shear playing a role in sustaining stronger updrafts and
convective cores.

The leading edge of the convection has propagated well downstream
through central AL and is also generally losing latitude. However,
the upstream activity over eastern MS has been showing strong
backbuilding characteristics with downstream cell-training as
well. The upwind propagation vectors in a narrow corridor across
central and eastern MS are quite light, on the order of only 5 to
10 kts at best, and with the convergent, moist and unstable
low-level flow pattern in place, there may be additional
convective development for at least a few more hours that also
backbuilds and trains over the same area.

Rainfall rates are already as high as 2 inches/hour, and with the
ongoing repeating cell-activity, additional rainfall amounts of 3
to 4+ inches are possible through late this morning. Given these
additional rains, additional isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding are likely for the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4IbhetcITzOj94SsN7SnBDJtGJpElb7ZwP5Uux9_T9kSOaFnEOaQ_XJlE283KvCY0QXk= qtYrK8p1F14u-N-Y49h-w7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33648903 33478758 33208655 32838559 32388512=20
31848530 31908625 32418834 32768920 33148999=20
33528990=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081242
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0401
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
841 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Southwest AR...Northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081240Z - 081600Z

SUMMARY...Backbuilding and training thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour continues to focus across
southwest AR and is expectced to edge more into northern LA over
the next couple of hours. Given the persistence of the early
morning convection, and concerns for renewed development, isolated
to scattered areas of flash flooding are generally likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows notably divergent
flow aloft across the broader Arklatex region in association with
the ongoing convective activity. A band of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms continue to impact areas of southwest AR and
northern LA, with the convection continuing to feature cloud top
temperatures as cold as -65C.

Much like the convection farther downstream over MS/AL, this
activity over AR/LA is focused with a moist, unstable and
convergent low-level flow pattern with this convective cluster
also near a front. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and
effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts are both contributing to
stronger redeveloping updrafts.

PWs are on the order of 1.75+ inches, and with the level of shear
and instability, rainfall rates are expected to continue to be
well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, with some 2.5 inch/hour
rates possible at least in the near term as these areas of
stronger thunderstorms continue to persist.

Backbuilding and training of convective cells across southwest AR
and into northern LA are generally expected to continue at least
into the late morning hours given the environment. Recent HRRR
runs appear to generally be too quick to weaken this activity.
However, the older 06Z run of the HRRR actually has a reasonably
good handle of the convective footprint, and would suggest some
persistence of the convective threat for a while longer.

MRMS FLASH data has already been showing areas of 3-hour FFG
exceedance over southwest AR, with CREST Max Unit Streamflow data
showing elevated runoff near the town of Magnolia up through Hope.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches are expected at
least locally through late this morning, and this should favor
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QuDGAPqWIvy8KEaHKlz8wjUZVHYmAs2waHBkOtg3WJXRpcz1auXy-sy8X7FqRrfpuN6= gMC0xM8ajshU5VN5oO0Urp8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33719378 33459293 32869180 32179151 31909220=20
32389331 33329413=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081612
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-082210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081610Z - 082210Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue
through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered
thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the
moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall
is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy
rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down
through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall
is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH
Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of
isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just
poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the
region.

Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west
across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing
for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based
instability is expected to continue to increase going through the
afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and
orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the
development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted
that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better
established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this
may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in
these areas.

The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD
showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or
just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall
environment should favor at least above average rainfall
efficiency across the region and especially with some of the
forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of
the column.

Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements
this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will
likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.
The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals
by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of
the slower moving cells evolve.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates,
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gCads1DEj_ivhAn6tQFEer7IwB5co9wce-7pbxIJ72pljVAewh5UyTyJNfYeNPNwFOD= a_q4Q6HNHZ5Em7cC4AH831A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41317974 41117866 40677788 39957717 38757715=20
38037794 38227904 39408035 40708079 41228041=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into Northwest TX and Southwest
OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081805Z - 090005Z

SUMMARY...Organizing supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon and
gradual consolidation into a severe MCS by this evening may result
in some scattered concerns for flash flooding where the cells to
merge or locally train.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
strong diurnal heating over the southern High Plains which is
already favoring MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000+ J/kg. A
capping inversion which still remains in place will continue to
steadily erode via additional surface heating over the next few
hours.

This will set the stage for well-organized and heavy showers and
thunderstorms to develop near and to the south of a cold front
dropping south toward the southern Plains, and also near and north
of a retreating warm front situated farther south over western and
northern TX. Already a northwest/southeast axis of elevated
thunderstorms has developed over the last couple of hours over
northwest TX given steep mid-level lapse rates.

A highly sheared environment exists with effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 50 kts in place, and these magnitudes are forecast
to slowly increase through the afternoon hours. The combination of
this and strong boundary layer instability will favor developing
and expanding coverage of supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.

Aside from well-defined severe hazards, there will be a heavy
rainfall component to the supercells considering the degree of low
to mid-level moisture that is in place. The latest CIRA-ALPW data
shows relatively enhanced moisture profiles from the surface up
through the 700 mb level, and so many of the supercell
thunderstorms will be capable of highly efficient rainfall rates
that could reach 2 inches/hour.

By early this evening, merging/consolidating supercell
thunderstorms should lead the way for a severe MCS, but as this
process occurs, there will be sufficient concerns for cell-mergers
and cell-training such that some rainfall totals reach 2 to 4+
inches.

This may result in concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding
which will include some localized urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Dms-epohnvzfqk-7f01Fr3IdQDNLaIhg1PV2eKHWEY2vbRoaYJ04MqFxmim0LVFyTpI= Ys8X_BkQQfq8-ux3LAu8NYo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36960058 36509954 35759881 35019838 34079832=20
33409886 33490002 34210078 34820146 35690220=20
36250233 36830196=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082232
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0404
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...southwestern PA into northern and eastern WV,
northern VA, western MD, and DC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082230Z - 090400Z

Summary...Short term localized totals of 2-4" likely to lead to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in
coverage over the past few hours in the vicinity of a warm front
draped from southwestern PA through western MD, the WV Panhandle,
northern VA. A shortwave trough will pivot through the area over
the next several hours, providing additional lift via DPVA. The
mesoscale environment is characterized by a SBCAPE gradient of
500-2000 J/kg, precipitable water (PW) values of 1.4-1.7 inches
(near the 90th percentile, per IAD sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts. MRMS estimates hourly rainfall
totals as high as 1-2" in association with WSW-to-ENE training
elements in the most intense multi-cell clusters, but fairly
progressive storm motions (averaging near 20 kts) with more
semi-discrete cells has tended to limit localized totals to 1".

Going forward, there could be more substantial organization of
convection going into the early evening hours given the overall
favorable environment for heavy rainfall. The area of greatest
concern in the near term is along the Blue Ridge Mountains from
the eastern tip of WV southward to Shenandoah NP, as well as
eastward into the DMV region. While hi-res models are not in the
best agreement (with the HRRR in particular really struggling to
properly initialize the the convection that is already ongoing),
the best signal for heavy rainfall is located in this area (with
fairly good agreement between the 18z HREF PMM and experimental
12z REFS PMM, suggesting localized 2-3" totals). There was also a
distinct uptick in the 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance
probabilities (largely due to the addition of the 18z NAM-nest),
which indicate 30-50% odds for localized 3" exceedance (through
03z). Given 3-hr FFG as low as 1.0-1.5" (mainly across northern
sections of the MPD, including the aforementioned area of
concern), isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
likely. Convection should decrease substantially in coverage by
03-04z with waning instability and increasing convective
inhibition.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-mdYoAd0Hn_BrnMbqGyn2_P9vSuI-RA8SinqHC4y-e1RNcxsNaxZ57tvWMTsAXa-dH8-= fxWKHq3-neq0PTJwq8-qobQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40287932 40237883 39887815 39487738 39107685=20
38617697 38007695 37317740 37047812 37157854=20
37567865 38277858 38867921 39168012 39768049=20
40098017 40247979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090026
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Northwest and North TX, Central
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090025Z - 090600Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 2"+ with 3-6 hour totals of
3-5" likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection is rapidly proliferating across
southwestern and central OK and the TX Panhandle into the Big
Country within an extremely unstable environment (MU CAPE
3000-5000 J/kg). While many cells remain discrete (mainly into the
TX Big Country and North TX) with many splitting supercells and
deviate cell motions, storms are becoming much more linearly
organized over the TX Panhandle into western OK, as a cold pool
becomes established within an area of broad low-level convergence
(situated between a cold front near the OK/TX Panhandle border and
a warm front just to the south). Precipitable water values range
from 1.4-2.0" (between the 90th percentile and max moving average,
per AMA/OUN/FWD sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km)
bulk shear of 40-60 kts (also near or above the 90th percentile).
MRMS estimates indicate very heavy precipitation in association
with the supercells (as much as 1" in 15-min), and hourly
accumulations are as high as 1.5-2.5" (mostly in association with
training convection where storms are organizing linearlly).

A chaotic mix of storm modes will continue into the evening, as
the developing MCS continues to grow upscale over the TX Panhandle
into southwestern and central OK with splitting supercells and
merging (possibly organizing into their own smaller clusters/bows)
downstream into the TX Big Country and North TX. Eventually the
MCS will become the dominant force and rapidly propagate into
southern OK and North TX (with the upwind/downwind propagation
vectors favoring ESE-SE movement at 30-50 kts), tracking over
areas that will have already seen heavy precipitation from earlier
discrete convection. Resulting localized 6-hr rainfall totals
(through 06z) of 3-5" are expected (per 18z HREF PMM QPF) with the
most favored corridor along and south of the Red River of the
South (where 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance
probabilities range from 40-70%, shifted a bit south based on more
recent hourly HRRR/RRFS data, as well as experimental WoFS data).
Merging supercells and training elements will also be capable of
2"+ hourly totals with corresponding HREF 1-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities as high as 20-50%. Given both the extreme hourly
rates and potential for 3-6 hour totals in excess of 3", scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7PuY86IVZnMuGVpfzrrdIxQvWlBrLbH_y1-spoByVky45f0XovAiLEHVcw8AXrYJ18RB= MgwL_tsGnAmIRSccpfJ9CwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35680155 35440070 35429965 35499884 35689805=20
34609564 32829475 31889619 31799831 32400042=20
33150143 34150143 35360220=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090317
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...South-central to Southeast Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090315Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Continued limited flash flooding risk continues for a
few more hours as remaining training cells approach southeast VA
and more susceptible urban environment.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic across the
Mid-Atlantic shows a slowly stabilizing environment, particularly
northward along the advancing occluded front from HGR/FDK MD into
north-central VA toward the triple point near LKU. The warm front
remains well defined cross the lower neck into Hampton Roads and
out into the Atlantic through the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.=20
RAP analysis shows a well of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and
east of the slowly advancing cold front out near the slopes of the
Blue Ridge across south-central VA into southeast VA. However,
VWP shows mid to upper level trof is starting to slide away
further northeast but 850mb winds remain mildly convergence as
down-sloping becomes more westerly and into the 20-25kt range. As
such, a few convective cells remain across south-central VA and
while there are some indications of cold pool/outflow, there is
some upstream redevelopment on that low level convergence to keep
activity going. Deep layer flow remains a bit north of ideally
parallel to the orientation of the ongoing convection but still
remains suggestive of training/repeat component as the cells
continue to drift east.=20

Total moisture of 1.75" and deep warm layer and flux for rainfall
production helps to maintain solid efficiency for 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates with length of training to support 1-2 hour duration for
additional 1.5-3" totals over the next few hours. This is a the
lower threshold of FFG values in the rural areas, however, if
cells can maintain strength and tap remaining instability pockets,
these rates/totals would pose a greater potentail for flash
flooding across the urban locations from Richmond/Petersburg
southeastward toward Norfolk and Hampton Roads. So while not the
highest confidence it will given the stabilizing environment with
loss of heating...the risk is sufficient for localized flash
flooding to continue to be possible for the next few hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!51BV9I7SzZjyVQ3VKsMpcyrKrro_3Hrxdx8wnGGZ0JH4OgfvDf9kBSK-dYfHnLXB8_ki= YtsRcfwdUVnvu1lAofsMc08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37857671 37637628 37077605 36847595 36567584=20
36327595 36397697 36557779 36587861 36767934=20
37157952 37427867 37637752 37747708=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090450
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Much of northern & Central TX...Northwest
LA...Southwest AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Very large, progressive MCS. Greater duration of
intense rain-rates along the warm advective wing on the northeast
side as well as along the flanking line due to repeating pose best
potential for 2-3" totals much in very short-duration.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a large dual clustered MCS
across the Central Red River Valley back into the Rolling
Plains/Big Country of Texas within a highly diffluent portion of
the mid to upper-level flow at the base of a broad, strong
synoptic low. This divergent pattern combined with a very
moist/unstable environment has supported a strong MCV located at
the northeast side of the complex in SE OK, quickly shifting
east-southeast. Given the secondary explosive convective
development a secondary weaker MCV can be seen further southwest
near KMWL with a strong/broad bowing segement connecting the two
features as an effective cold front ahead of the northern strong
1013mb meso-high. Further upstream, left exit dynamics and
southerly inflow from the Pecos river valley shows a third
cluster/linear convective complex acting as a caboose to the
overall complex, sweeping through with another strong burst of
intense rainfall rates (though equally progressive given the
downward mixing of strong flow aloft).

Overall the deep layer flow with the diffluence as supported a
very progressive southeastward propagation that is starting to
limit overall duration of the most intense rain-rates. CIRA LPW
and overall Total PWAT animation shows the complex is propagating
into slightly drier overall environment through depth, though it
continues to currently ingest 2-2.25" total PWats allowing for
efficient rates over 2-3"/hr...yet, the quickness is generally
limiting the initial burst to about 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes, with
broad moderate shield precip adding an additional .5-1" through
the main line. However, southerly inflow on broad 20-25kt LLJ is
advecting this drier and lower theta-E air, so rates should
continue to diminish with greater dry air and forward propagation
expected, reducing the overall flash flooding potential,
especially as the convection moves off into the Heart of Texas and
into NW LA where FFG values are over 2-2.5"/hr, making FF risk
limited to urban areas.

With that stated, there will remain two axes of increased rainfall
duration: 1) Precursory to the squall line WAA downshear of the
MCV center across NE TX into far NW LA/SW AR increasing overall
duration and training. Expected totals of 2-3" are probable with
an isolated spot of 4" possible. MCV may also slow and rotate
northeastward further increasing duration of this training axis.=20
2) The other is along the flanking line of the overall complex
that is favorably oriented from WNW to ESE fairly parallel to the
deep layer steering of the MCS. In addition, south to
south-southwesterly isentropic ascent may help for additional
development along the outflow boundary...though with lower
unstable and moisture environment, extending the duration of
thunderstorm activity and repeat/training will have the greatest
potential for those 2-3" totals and continue scattered ongoing
flooding in the southern Big Country into northeast Hill country
as the trailing 'caboose' linear complex slides through out of the
southern Rolling Plains.

So all in all, the coverage of flash flooding will be reducing
with a few axes of enhanced risk and given the ongoing flash
flooding with upstream rainfall likely...flash flooding will
remain likely through 10z, but reducing becoming more widely
scattered in nature eventually becoming only an urban concern
further south and east.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iZ9QbBIW8NgwOmIRWKr69Fd02TdQRo2MD-wLx90BpK1HGllYPUNay--4nuOk1QAPLeE= 0s1vLBCqICnIDVyGfl54Lvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LUB...LZK...MAF...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34069465 33549339 33339303 32979215 32119211=20
31679258 31579339 31259461 30729641 30989757=20
31739974 32200062 32740093 33200032 33219972=20
33099877 32919765 32949610 33329553 33909516=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090521
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0408
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern MS...Southern AL...Far Western FL
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090520Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Stationary/slow moving clusters along old outflow
boundary/theta-E gradient pose highly focused totals to 4"+ and
possible widely scattered rapid inundation flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...04z Surface and RAP analysis shows a solid theta-E
gradient across southern GA, southeast AL before dipping near
Pensacola, FL before angling northwest into south-central MS with
about 4-8 degrees making it subtle. However, total PWat analysis
shows the feature much better with long strung out axis of 2"+
total PWats seen well at the 850-500mb layers in CIRA LPW.
Recent uptick in southwesterly surface to 850mb flow at 5-15kts
results in sufficient isentropic ascent in small clusters (near
the angle in far W FL) and utilizing the slightly uncapped 2000
J/kg MLCAPE along the boundary. Upper level flow is generally
weak, but with the approach of the stronger upper-level jet
upstream in the Plains, is providing some deeper layer effective
bulk shear into the 20-30kt range to provide some organization to
the convective clusters to keep the downdrafts from collapsing in
on the clustered updrafts. Given total PWats of 2" and sufficient
15kt flux, rates of 2-2.5" have been seen in these clusters.=20
Currently the line is still upstream enough that 500-1000
thickness weak and therefore, upstream inflow is about equal to
easterly steering flow to keep cells fairly stationary to weakly
moving. New updrafts along weak outflow helps to expand the
clusters (particularly further west into south-central MS), so
isolated totals of 3-5" are becoming increasingly possible
resulting in focused possible rapid inundation flooding.

As the upstream MCS continues to barrel through eastern Texas, low
level inflow will back a bit and WAA should expand convective
initiation southern to west-central MS. This increase in inflow
is also likely to increase forward cell motions toward the north
likely reducing overall totals but increasing coverage of 1-3"
totals in advance of the line. Will have to continue to monitor
the area into the dawn time frame for subsequent MPDs.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5VbDJ44c3Rmz2iJAcrVXKwhNHGe5Pw8kVwV9suXhlnncytmYwmtK5OYyQnPtS7VPo78q= mZd6sc90VaeBfwjoG71E6uY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32608994 31938809 31768645 31388595 30698598=20
30298622 30338699 30488782 30788833 31068944=20
31559031 32149076=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090920
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0409
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Central MS...Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090920Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Training WAA convective cells with capability of 2"/hr
rates and spots of 2-3"+ may result in possible localized
incident(s) of flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and surface observations show rapidly
decaying MCS continuing to press eastward along the LA/AR border
with outflow boundary starting to reach northeast LA where it
intersects with slowly lifting frontal boundary that has had some
active convection along it earlier this mornign across S MS.=20
Surface to boundary layer winds are increasing with approach of
the MCS and slightly increased WAA over the boundary breaking out
more numerous updrafts across central MS connecting up to the
lifting older cluster out of south-central MS. From 850-500mb,
winds are fairly flat from west to east to allow for solid
potential for training of these cells. CIRA LPW also denotes the
weak amplifcation of the surface to 850mb moisture up the MS River
Valley but also still pooled along the deeper layer boundary
toward SW AL and active cluster in south-central AL as well. TDs
in the mid-70s with 850-500mb moisture axis continue to support
2-2.25" total PWats and with upstream faster flow associated with
the MCS, propagation vectors have reduced to about 5kts and are
supportive of backbuilding into the approaching outflow boundary.=20
As such a few hours of efficient rainfall/training should allow
for 2-3"+ totals across central MS.

Slowly the cells will move into more senstive soil conditions from
east-central MS into south-west AL from last evening's heavy
rainfall, this may increase the potential for higher than normal
run-off and incidents of flash flooding, but the air is drier
aloft and more stable, and without very strong WAA to advect
northward it may be more difficult to maintain stronger convection
across this region, but at the same time, will not require as much
rainfall totals (2-2.5" in 3-6hrs) than over the drier conditions
of central MS. Either way, hourly rates and 3hour totals will be
close enough to suggest localized incidents of flash flooding will
be possible through early morning hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49iAVeDqXzTLS09rM5rKAjVr573UgnYL74fGpAMblDT-x7fm-Iwr6ZcscrmThd3BdZSp= ySCU5-yh4-MIx4zdPyLsJR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33649014 33468862 32828762 32548709 32258628=20
31638628 31168664 31268799 31788932 32029021=20
32289124 32859149 33449128=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091812
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0410
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern OH/western PA/western NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091810Z - 092330Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from
eastern OH into western/northwestern PA and western NY through
early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches are expected with
localized totals of 2 to 3+ inches from short term training.

Discussion...1745Z visible satellite and regional imagery showed
developing showers and thunderstorms extending from central Lake
Ontario into northwestern PA, along a pre-frontal trough axis/wind
shift. Back to the west, additional activity was forming over
central and eastern OH, just ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Area 12Z soundings and GPS PWs indicated precipitable water values
ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 inches within the warm sector from central
OH to western NY and the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg from near Buffalo, NY to southern/eastern OH.

Continued surface heating through a mixture of cloud coverage=20
across the region and southwesterly low level advection of
moisture will allow surface temperatures/dewpoints to come up a
bit more through peak heating supporting RAP forecasts of MLCAPE
by 21Z of 500-1500 J/kg for the MPD threat area. A mixture of
storm types will be possible given sufficient shear/instability
for organized convection but storm motions are expected to be
roughly 30-40 kt for most of the region which should keep
individual cells progressive. However, as the cold front slowly
progresses eastward, pre-frontal convergence axes and
storm-induced outflow boundaries are expected to align with the
unidirectional flow from the SW, supporting periods of training.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected within training and
localized 2 to 3+ inch totals will be possible through about 00Z.
Flash flood guidance is relatively low (1+ inches per 1 to 3
hours) from portions of eastern OH into a good portion of PA and
into areas of NY just north of the PA border. Exceedance of these
lower FFG values will potentially lead to a few areas of flash
flooding as storm coverage increases over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZXUTkxpvlUH8KGv3x_3a6D9qEh_rRIlCe2DumB2r968SIP6VtdEzz9JN1uEkBZce_bX= n3g19xnWQGS3ibG_h565x2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43787671 43417592 42327661 40907872 40088075=20
39748201 40238294 41298225 42437986 43407908=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091952
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091950Z - 100150Z

SUMMARY...Some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible into the early evening hours, especially across parts
of southern AL where recent heavy rain has left soils saturated.

DISCUSSION...The southwestern flank of old outflow boundary
related to an MCV trekking across northern GA has stalled near the
central Gulf Coast and is seeing continued cellular east-west
thunderstorm development over the last few hours across southern
MS/AL. Currently storms are struggling to produce rainfall rates
over 1.5"/hr per MRMS, but these rates should increase as higher
instability and PWATs advect into the region. SPC mesoanalysis
highlights 4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the area near southern MS and
southeast AL, which falls in the area of inflow towards developing
storms as the column mean flow remains out of the west-southwest.
This is also parallel to the linear orientation of storms and will
promote some backbuilding and more widespread heavy rainfall as
opposed to cellular activity due to the influence of a shortwave
approaching the lower Mississppi Valley. PWATs are as high as 2"
and the 18z RAP depicts these values increasing and expanding with
time across the central Gulf Coast states this evening.

Recent HRRR and experimental RRFS guidance is similar with respect
to current convection, but differ with potential initiation
southward closer to the Gulf Coast. The RRFS is likely overdone,
but with the eventual convection also most likely greater in
coverage than HRRR guidance given parameters available (HRRR
suffers from a low-level dry bias). Additionally, soils remain
saturated near the border of south-central AL and the far
northwestern FL Panhandle where MRMS estimates an average of 2-5"
of rain has fallen in the last 12 hrs. This results in an area of
greatest concern for more widespread and impactful flash flooding.
Otherwise, the remainder of the highlighted region more isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible.


Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4BR4jsq545OsDMOgJeXhuzHlNlCETLmqgN0m3BjDqE1TDTwgroLnKKdZR_j0og48CZ2m= C4nGlGSJxai1xLsoy9TUPAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31778695 31608621 31338587 30988614 30868705=20
30758807 30508921 30568991 31009000 31488921=20
31738820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092101
FFGMPD
NMZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092100Z - 100300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
several more hours anchored near the terrain of the Southern
Rockies, before activity begins to eject into the southern High
Plains by 00z tonight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST infrared satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across northern NM over the last hour across much of
northern NM and the terrain of the southern Rockies. Maximum
hourly rainfall rates have been estimated per MRMS up to 2"
briefly near Las Vegas, NM earlier this afternoon. This activity
should continue through at least 00z centered over the higher
elevations until activity congeals and a large cold pool develops,
helping eject convection southeastward into the southern High
Plains. Additionally, a shortwave diving across southern CA
evident in GOES-East WV imagery will add to the ability for storms
to continue sliding eastward once forward motion picks up.

Sensitive terrain across the Sacramento Mts. and burn scars from
the past few years remain the greatest concern for flash flooding
as any storm will likely contain rainfall rates greater than
0.5"/hr. PWATs per SPC's mesoanalysis are in the 0.75-1.0" range
and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater in the High Plains). This is
sufficient enough to maintain updrafts further until the growing
cold pool takes over. NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-2 m relative soil moisture
show much of northern NM in the 80-90th percentile, but with the
central High Plains closer to average. FFG is as low as 1.5-2.0"
for 3-hr in the highlighted area outside of burn scars, with
recent HRRR guidance showing additional scattered 3-hrly totals
around 1.5". This information leads to the potential for
additional scattered flash flooding coverage into this evening.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--kVV-qNvsnlPSCg4i3e_o5haCriyHHUmFgjyDBDRskDVkOT02vVH1vDwE8TzzSicfxy= XKRfCKJ0EX8ZZLKBEZVbAFQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990510 36970405 36550368 35950408 35260409=20
34430357 33520385 32890453 32500515 32680576=20
33220586 33670608 34050662 34510690 35170699=20
35850694 36400667 36790605=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092323
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-100520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0413
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Great Lakes and Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092320Z - 100520Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity ahead of an advancing cold
front is expected to continue exhibiting brief training and likely
producing additional isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding into at least the early overnight period. Maximum hourly
amounts of 1-1.5" are most likely, but should occur within the
very saturated and already flood-prone region of the central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar, satellite, and surface observations
indicate periods of heavy rainfall and numerous thunderstorms
stretching from northwest PA into western NY, along with
developing cells and scattered thunderstorms across central PA
into WV and northern VA. These storms are all generally moving
northeastward ahead of an approaching pair of cold fronts swinging
across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, easterly low-level flow off the
Atlantic has produced an area of convergence along the central
Appalachians extending from western VA along the Allegheny Mts
through Upstate NY. This area of convergence could be a focus
along sensitive terrain (1-hr FFG less than 1") for brief
training/slow-moving storms and scattered flash flooding.

PWs in the area are generally around 1.3-1.5", which isn't too
spectacular and falls under the 90th climatological percentiles
per the NAEFS ESAT. However, the strong southwesterly 850mb flow
of 35-40 kts increase IVT above the 90th climatological percentile
and could be what pushes the setup towards greater flash flooding
potential for a few additional hours after sunset. Instability
remains sufficient along this convergence zone with MLCAPE over
1,000 J/kg, leading to the maintenance of updrafts due to the
combined effective bulk shear in the area. Latest HRRR and
experimental RRFS guidance depicts hourly totals up to 2" possible
and 18z HREF probabilities for 3-hr totals greater than 2" as high
as 40%. All of this within a region of the central Appalachians
containing 1-hr FFG less than 1" and 3-hr FFG less than 2", as
well as monthly rainfall running 200-300% above normal. These
factors support the likelihood of additional isolated to scattered
flash flooding, but with the magnitude of impacts potentially
limited given the overall storm system is progressing eastward
with time.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ThDQOe09jaiTiQ6WW3f6kzi2MOJvymk3fwPZ9k3lUC3mfTpZJirPre-3Os14FUKM2cM= DgZHl-p60loNrU8b5228ZeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44037585 43387535 41367669 39817749 39077824=20
39127926 39677983 41007947 42567801 43737661=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-100710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM into West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100110Z - 100710Z

SUMMARY...The combination of leading discrete cells and a
developing MCS ejecting out of the NM High Plains will lead to the
potential for scattered flash flooding and isolated rainfall
totals of 2-4", mostly occurring within a few hours.

DISCUSSION...A lingering outflow boundary/cold front extending
across central TX towards the corner of southwest NM has already
triggered convection in the form of discrete cells (some
supercells) between Midland and San Angelo. Reflectivity values
greater than 65 dBZ and hydrometeor classification depict these
cells as primarily a hail/severe threat to start as opposed to
heavy rainfall. However, given the slow motion of these cells and
the eventual influence of an approaching MCS, flash flooding could
become more of a concern into the early overnight hours.

ML CAPE values of 2,000-3,000 J/kg remain in place along with east-southeasterly flow converging along the outflow/frontal
boundary helping maintain a relatively moist column and PWs
1.-1.5" (highest east near San Angelo in the highlighted area).
This convergence promotes the greatest potential for longer
duration rainfall and amounts that may exceed local FFG.

3-hr FFG in the area is as low as 2-2.5" in local spots but
generally as high as 3-4". This remains the limiting factor
regarding confidence in flash flooding magnitude as well as the
expected fast forward motion of the later MCS ejecting out of NM.
However, coverage of heavy rainfall with amounts up to 4" where
cells merge and/or on the northern and southern fringes of the MCS
near any developing bookend vortices could trigger a few instances
of flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67dXaBBc9SQ2iLzT0sX4G3-K5ozsP0tF8C3lLhZizsxMl2yoooYfMIZgt_G7_JFBBd3d= gXnpKwh7hbXdY3bznqsHoHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34920343 34870257 33690162 32730096 31830044=20
30980012 30880086 31490149 31930233 32110346=20
32460407 33150428 34220398=20

=3D =3D =3D
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