ACUS11 KWNS 040918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040918=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...ern OK...nwrn AR...swrn MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

Valid 040918Z - 041115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will continue to rapidly
spread east-northeastward toward the northeastern Oklahoma into
southwestern Missouri Interstate 44 corridor, with a few cells
posing a risk for severe hail. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Strongest lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent
ahead of a short wave perturbation progressing northeast of the
Texas South Plains is forecast to rapidly spread northeast of the
Red River toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak. This includes
lift associated with warm advection near the northern periphery of a
plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, which may also
spread north of the Red River through 11-13Z. As this occurs,
strongest thunderstorms may tend to redevelop north-northeastward
into the Interstate 44 vicinity of northeastern Oklahoma into
southwestern Missouri, where similar thermodynamic and convective
layer shear profiles as upstream may support a continuing risk for
severe hail.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47ACquNfbcfzz5g4fcutniSrJNrC0AFcYvbQBjYAeRCTtwgrRyV36gEmmiF8aXntltyPYrJ-9= QI1a3KifKVzOYVu6Ac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36339593 37199321 36069269 34639485 33899592 33989758
34889773 36339593=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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