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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 16 08:00:53 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 160800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160800=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-161000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast SD...Southern/Central ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160800Z - 161000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for isolated hail and/or strong gusts will continue
    from northeast South Dakota into central North Dakota for the next
    few hours. Limited coverage and magnitude will preclude the need for
    a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northwest SD
    and adjacent far southwest ND, supported by warm-air advection
    within the localized warm conveyor associated with the mesoscale
    convective vortex currently over far northwest SD. These
    thunderstorms are forecast to continue north-northeastward over the
    next few hours while gradually weakening in response to decreasing
    warm-air advection. Even so, the environment downstream across
    south-central ND appears favorable for evaporatively enhanced
    downbursts and the potential for some strong gusts.

    Farther north, a west-to-east oriented band of thunderstorms
    recently developed in response to persistent warm-air advection near
    the terminus of the low-level jet that extends across the Plains.
    Recent radar imagery has shown that the previously more cellular
    storms may be transitioning into a more clustered mode, with some
    more easterly motion noted as well. Low-level stability will persist downstream, but enough elevated buoyancy is expected to allow for
    thunderstorm persistence. Consequently, the developing linear
    cluster will likely continue east-southeastward with an attendant
    risk for isolated hail. A strong gust or two may be able to reach
    the surface as well.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5P0AnPeRKMF8OppkRWzxsVTIk-RdTkLOjL_k-2Lji_I3n-cM68QJuiRaHbMSDBjJn4-z8kkLr= soqGXiP_qx7ryw8LTI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45300399 46450319 47720207 48300017 48079831 46729969
    44880093 44820309 45300399=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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