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  • Re: President Trump

    From Ron L.@1:120/616 to Aaron Thomas on Sun Jun 1 10:10:08 2025
    Aaron Thomas wrote to Dr. What <=-

    It might be a psychological thing, but either way, it's working.

    Psychological effects are strong, and very often work.

    My own personal research suggests that the N95 masks prevent illness.

    But we have to beware of confirmational bias here.

    Example:
    A teacher hears a child in her class sneeze. The next day, 5 kids in the class are sick. To the teacher, that's confirmation that viruses exist and are contageous.

    But that confirmation is biased because the teacher has ignored the hundred other times that a child sneezed and **no** kids got sick. Because it was a non-event, while 5 children out sick at once was something that stuck in the teacher's head.


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  • From Aaron Thomas@1:342/200 to Ron L. on Sun Jun 1 16:18:17 2025
    But we have to beware of confirmational bias here.

    Example:
    A teacher hears a child in her class sneeze. The next day, 5 kids in
    the class are sick. To the teacher, that's confirmation that viruses exist and are contageous.

    But that confirmation is biased because the teacher has ignored the hundred other times that a child sneezed and **no** kids got sick. Because it was a non-event, while 5 children out sick at once was something that stuck in the teacher's head.

    Whenever possible, it's good to use the pychology to your advantage. A kid sneezed? Just say to yourself "It's allergies."

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